Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara has hit two walls of resistance – one Kurdish and one Druze – in his drive to consolidate power since the fall of the old regime almost nine months ago.
The former commander of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), whose 11-day advance in December toppled a system many thought was impregnable, is struggling to exert control over two strategic regions. The first is the small governorate of Sweida, on the border with Jordan, and the second is the much larger and richer north-eastern area of the country, near Iraq.
An offensive to take control of mostly Druze Sweida was foiled last month. Meanwhile, a mix of negotiations and force have not been able to dislodge the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the north-east, the reservoir of Syria's commodities, power, and energy. Although Mr Al Shara is engaged in normalisation with the US, the Kurds have retained enough American support to resist takeover by the new central authorities.
Mr Al Shara “believes that time is on his side”, according to one insider who recently met senior officials in Damascus. “The Americans are gravitating towards him, and he has been cultivating the Russians and others, in addition to his closeness to Turkey.”
The source said Mr Al Shara is also hoping to convince Washington to move at least some of the military bases it has in the SDF zone in the north-east into government areas in the interior, thus strengthening the burgeoning alliance with Washington.
Mr Al Shara’s forces appear to have upped their military offensive against the SDF, which on Sunday said it repelled a government attack on the Deir Ezzor front, while Turkish allies pounded SDF positions from the air.
In a meeting with Arab journalists on Sunday, Mr Al Shara maintained a hardline position that there can be no alternative to a unitary state and brushed off the possibility of a decentralised system.
If Mr Al Shara spreads his authority all over the country, he will strengthen Syria’s position as a regional player. The president would also satisfy a shared goal with Turkey, his main non-Arab backer, of ending any Syrian Kurdish aspirations for autonomy, although Ankara appears to have contained the threat from its own Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), after the PKK disbanded this year.
Insiders say the President is confident that his strategic position is improving and that his stance against Kurds and the Druze will prevail, although the two groups have been entrenching on the ground, distrustful that a central takeover will not invite militants into their midst.
“He has established himself as a credible anti-terrorism partner,” the source said, pointing out what he described as increased security co-operation the new authorities have with Washington since Mr Al Shara met Donald Trump in Riyadh in May.
Mr Al Shara could be also willing to order the dissolution of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, allaying the concerns of Arab countries who regard it as a major national security threat.
The President, however, would prefer to nudge the Brotherhood into disbanding. In his meeting with journalists, Mr Al Shara emphasised the importance of Syria to business and economic exchange across the region, saying Lebanon and Iraq could benefit considerably if Syria's reconstruction drive takes off.
Another insider affiliated with HTS said that although Mr Shara is convinced he will win eventual US support to control a centralised Syria, he cannot deviate from such a goal because his core Arab Sunni constituency will not approve of anything less. “It is part of the war dividend they are expecting,” the source said.
After the violence in Sweida last month, The Washington Post quoted Tom Barrack, the US envoy to Syria, as saying that the government should consider “something short of” federalism, in which you allow everybody to keep their own integrity, their own culture, their own language, and no threat of Islamism”.
It represented a change from earlier US signals that Washington supports a strong central state in Syria. However, the remarks fell short of endorsing the Iraq-like federalism that the SDF demands.
The HTS source cautioned that nobody should confuse "Al Shara's patience with weakness”, pointing out remarks he made to the journalists suggesting that Syria could be close to signing a security deal with Israel, which could mean more freedom of action against both the Druze and the Kurds.
His army has enough weapons from the previous Assad regime, and enough elite troops, to “cleanse every part of Syria of any opposition”. The President is playing “the long game, methodically building inside and outside support to remain in power for decades”.
