Iran v Israel: What just happened?

Ceasefire may not end the first direct war between the two states

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli strike on Tehran. Getty Images

The Middle East, and much of the world, woke up with a sigh of relief after US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

But did the rivals really agree to a ceasefire? And is this truly the end of the first direct war between two states that have spent decades fighting in the shadows? Not quite.

Israel quickly claimed it had accepted a ceasefire proposal, even after Iran launched four missile barrages. Tehran, for its part, said nothing of the sort. It denied firing missiles that Israel insisted Tehran had launched. And the region is back to the familiar trade of blame, bluffs, denials and terrifying moments.

There are many scenarios now on the table. But first, a quick recap of how we got here.

Caught off-guard

On Friday, June 13, shortly after the deadline the Trump administration had set for US-Iran nuclear talks to deliver results lapsed, Israel launched a series of strikes inside Iran.

It hit hard, killing top generals and bombing nuclear enrichment sites and Iranian air defences. The attacks came after a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency that found Iran had breached international obligations over its nuclear activities. That finding gave Israel the supposed grounds to attack.

Iran, caught off guard, had assumed war was off the table. Instead, it was dealt a heavy blow.

Tehran struck back fast. Devastating missile attacks rained down on Israeli cities. For the first time, both Tehran and Tel Aviv were under direct heavy attacks, no proxies, no buffers.

Until now, the shadow war had consumed Beirut, Baghdad and Sanaa. But this was the first full-scale war Israel has fought with a state in decades – and Iran’s first since the brutal Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

"A direct clash between Israel and Iran was inevitable," said a regional security official.

Regime change?

What began as a campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme quickly exposed a deeper agenda: start of a long-term regime change campaign. Or at least a dramatic recalibration of power in Tehran.

But why now?

Despite stalled nuclear talks, Iran’s defences were crumbling. Hezbollah was overstretched. The Assad regime in Syria, gone. And for the first time, Iran had to defend its own soil, from its own soil.

Israeli Mossad units were reportedly activated inside Iran. Car bombs, drone strikes – even Evin prison was hit. The message was clear: no sanctuary.

Some EU leaders began echoing Israeli rhetoric, talking about “zero enrichment” as a baseline. It was no longer just about curbing Tehran's nuclear programme; it was about dismantling Iran’s deterrence.

"This war isn’t primarily about the nuclear programme – that’s just a secondary concern for the Israelis. The fundamental objective is toppling the Iranian regime," explained the security source.

An image of Iranian commander Mohammad Bakeri, with the slogan 'Killed by Netanyahu', in Tehran. AFP

"But if military strikes don’t lead to popular unrest and regime change, they become pointless. So what’s the point then? Expect more chaos. More destruction."

This is still Israel’s golden window: a chance to take down an adversary 2,000km away with full western backing, and maybe turn the “energy monster” into a regional ally.

"The Israelis believe that regime collapse would shake the entire region, bringing the Middle East firmly under joint Israeli-American control. It’s hard to see it happen without blood. Too much blood," a Middle East diplomat and former Minister of Foreign Affairs told The National.

Enter the US

But Israel’s campaign seemed to fall short of victory. That’s when the US stepped in.

American bombers, flying straight from their homeland, hit three major Iranian nuclear sites. A bold gesture from Mr Trump, enough to help the Israelis, but (at least on paper) avoid all-out war.

Iran didn’t buy it.

Behind the scenes, it orchestrated a symbolic but pointed attack on the biggest US base in the region, in Qatar. A reminder that if the regime feels cornered, Gulf allies could also be in the crosshairs.

The message to Mr Trump was layered: do not push for regime change, and do not expect us to sit quietly while you strike us. Iran was willing to risk its most precious regional ties to protect itself, or at least protect its ruling structure.

Israeli rescue forces at a building in Tel Aviv hit by missiles fired from Iran. Bloomberg

What now?

Mr Trump eventually announced a ceasefire. Israel accepted. Iran did not say it did. It denied launching missiles but also refused any “imposed” agreement.

Instead, Tehran said it wanted to negotiate a ceasefire. What it does not want is a Lebanon-style deal where Israel retains the right to strike anytime, anywhere.

Iran wants firm terms. But is it overplaying its hand, again? Or is it holding its most dangerous bargaining chip: hidden, highly enriched uranium, as leverage?

Either way, it is hard to imagine Israel backing down now. The window to change Iran is wide open. But it will not stay open forever, especially if Tehran’s hardliners take over and silence any remaining reformist voices.

The same goes for Israel. The current leadership is driven by an extreme agenda. And they feel emboldened. Unleashed. And what are they capable of? Think Lebanon. Think Gaza. Now think bigger.

Also, Israel is believed to have about 90 nuclear warheads.

"This is a pivotal war. It will define the future of the Middle East. Victory for one side, defeat for the other. It can't be a tie," warned the diplomat.