A top military figure under Syria's former president Bashar Al Assad has contacted Tehran for financial support to rebuild Iran's influence in the country and strengthen its position as it comes under attack by Israel, a Syrian security official and former regime operatives have told The National.
Iran is unlikely to divert resources from its current war effort but re-establishing a proxy presence in Syria could help it strategically in future, the sources said.
The proposal to Tehran came from Ghiath Dalla, a brigadier general in elite Fourth Division, the praetorian guard of the former Iran-backed regime and the military unit closest to Iran, within the past 10 days. He is seeking hundreds of millions of dollars to create a militia drawn from former members of Mr Al Assad's now disbanded army that would fight Syria's new government led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and launch attacks on Israeli targets, the sources said.
Mr Dalla, like most of his peers and the deposed president, is from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, that dominated Sunni-majority Syria after a coup in 1963.
He is among thousands of Alawite security personnel who have been on the run after the Assad regime fell to HTS-led rebel forces on December 8. Hundreds of Alawite officers, including Mr Dalla, are believed to have fled to Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah group still wields significant influence, despite heavy losses in its war with Israel last year.
“He thinks that the [Israel-Iran] war is a golden chance to unite the Alawites and form a resistance force supported by Iran,” said the security official, who requested anonymity.
Mr Dalla commanded the 42nd Armoured Brigade, regarded as among the best-equipped and best-trained formations in the former military. During the 2011-2024 civil war it operated in southern Syria, from where proxy groups backed by Iran launched rocket attacks on Israel in the final year of the Assad regime.
“The south has remnants of Iranian proxies whom Dalla can re-activate to resume the attacks,” the security official said. The official said the seizure by authorities of Grad rockets at a warehouse in the southern Deraa province this week, and a rocket attack on June 3 on an Israeli-occupied area of the Golan Heights by a splinter Hezbollah group, were signs of the potential for destabilisation that could be boosted by Iranian money.
The official, who was a rebel fighting the regime in the northern province of Idlib, said the threat from Mr Dalla and his followers could not be underestimated.
“We were like him, hiding in the woods of Idlib, bereft of support. Once support [from Arab countries and Turkey] started coming, the game changed quickly,” he said, referring to the early years of the civil war.
The official would not be drawn on whom Mr Dalla has been in contact with in Iran, citing ongoing intelligence gathering. The contact was made directly, not through Hezbollah, he said.
A prominent figure in the Alawite community said Mr Dalla’s obvious recruiting pool comprises at least 100,000 former Alawite security personnel. Many of them, associated with atrocities under the former regime, have sought refuge in the Alawite Mountains in Syria's coastal region, the ancestral homeland of the minority sect.
However, widespread killings of Alawites in the area by pro-government forces have raised fears that the community might not survive under the new government led by HTS, a group once affiliated with Al Qaeda.
An estimated 1,300 Alawite civilians were killed over two days in March after gunmen from the sect resisted, mainly through ambushes, an HTS-led incursion into the Alawite Mountains. The security operation was aimed at cleansing the coastal provinces of regime remnants, according to the government.
Mr Dalla’s loyalists, called the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria, led the ultimately failed resistance.
The Alawite figure said Mr Dalla and his men, who are believed to number several thousand, still have an underground arsenal consisting mainly of light weapons but also significant amounts of medium weaponry, such anti-aircraft guns mounted on pickup trucks.
“He has been depleted cash-wise. But he is counting on the spreading fears that the Alawites have no home and the only path is resistance to create an Alawite province.”
He said many Alawites still see a future in acquiescing to the new order and do not want to be associated with Iran, and added that he himself had declined requests for money by insurgents associated with Mr Dalla.
A former Syrian intelligence operative, who is also Alawite, said Mr Dalla was trying to fill the leadership vacuum in the community created by the fall of Mr Al Assad, who fled to Moscow.
Unlike the former regime, Mr Dalla is, in the main, not viewed as corrupt. He is also religious, unlike the secular Assads, which would make him more trustworthy to Iran.
In contrast to the Assads, who have ”sacrificed the Alawites” for their own survival, Mr Dalla is a more ideological figure who believes that the only way for the community to survive is a long-term fight supported by Iran to a break away from Syria, the former intelligence operative said.
Observers are split on how much advantage a Iran would have had in the war with Israel had the Assad regime survived the civil war.
After Israeli attacks on Syrian security personnel and military infrastructure in 2023-2024, signs emerged that Mr Al Assad viewed his alliance with Iran as too costly for the regime.
It remains an open question whether the former president was willing, or able, to stop Iran from using Syria as a conduit for weapons and supplies to Hezbollah, once considered Tehran's first line of defence against Israel. The Israeli military had already largely destroyed Syrian air defences by the time Mr Al Assad was ousted, giving its air force freedom to operate over Syria.
However, Iran would be striking at Israel from short range with missiles and drones launched from Syria, instead of relying solely on long-distance attacks, had the former regime remained, a former member of Mr Al Assad's military said.
“It would have made a difference had they not lost Syria,” the source said. “But nowhere near enough to gain a decisive advantage”.
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Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
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From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
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Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed