Stay or go? Tehran stalked by doubt as war with Israel hits home

As civilian impact grows, so does tension between national pride and fears for the future

Tehran has faced days of Israeli strikes extending from military sites to residential areas. AFP

The pictures came in one after the other: a statue of Arash the Archer, a mythological character believed to have shot an arrow marking the border of ancient Iran. Next, a picture of Picasso’s Guernica, one of the world’s most famous paintings opposing war.

A resident of Tehran sent the pictures via WhatsApp with a message: Iranians are proud nationalists with a long history, and do not want conflict.

“Our nation knows how to resist and stand firm. In difficult times, everyone stands by Iran, regardless of their religion or belief,” the person, a foreign policy researcher, told The National, asking to remain anonymous.

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Even Iranians who oppose the country’s system of Islamic governance have criticised Israel's strikes in conversations with The National. The attacks have killed at least 224 people over five days, with more than 1,200 others taken to hospital, said Iran’s Health Ministry, including women and children. While deeply rooted in their communities, many Iranians fearing the unknown are deciding to pack up and leave in search of safety.

As Israeli strikes continue and the civilian death toll rises, Iranians are faced with a decision: should I stay or should I go?

“People are going where they think is out of the missiles’ reach,” another Tehran resident told The National.

For years, Iran had kept direct conflict with Israel, and other threats, at bay. It supported Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. It sent military advisers to Syria and Iraq to support Bashar Al Assad and, it said, fend off ISIS, whose presence once extended worryingly close to Iran's own borders.

An excavator removes debris from a Tehran building hit by an Israeli strike. Getty Images

But now, citing imminent threats from Iran, Israel has attacked, ushering in the worst direct conflict that Iran has seen since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq. Iran, which denies it is seeking nuclear arms, has launched missiles and drones back at Israel, claiming at least 24 lives, Israeli authorities have said.

“Every night, people are gathering in safe areas and waiting for either Israel or Iran to strike. It’s a really dire situation,” a resident of Isfahan told The National. “People are coming together, they have lived in war. It’s a really tough situation.”

People are going where they think is out of the missiles’ reach

Resident of Tehran

As well as striking remote military and nuclear sites, Israel has also struck densely populated areas of cities such as Tehran, including the busy Tajrish district. As it has done in Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli military on Monday issued an evacuation warning for part of Area 3 in north-eastern Tehran.

It said it would carry out “actions to attack the Iranian regime's military infrastructure”. The area houses the city’s international exhibition centre and a sports complex.

In a later social media post, US President Donald Trump said “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran”. The post was published in English around 3am Iran time. "I just want people to be safe," he later told journalists in explanation for the post.

Heavy traffic on a road out of Tehran followed days of Israeli strikes. Reuters

Many Iranians have criticised the sudden evacuation orders for a city of around 10 million people, a population that swells on weekdays. On social media, users posted panicked messages about family members living in the area that Israel said it would attack.

Despite the threats, some people are not leaving their homes.

“Tehran is a populous and important city and is not being evacuated at all,” the foreign policy researcher said. “The situation is special, but we are not a nation state that was just created yesterday. We are defending ourselves and adapting to the new circumstances.”

But others, fearing the conflict may escalate further and uncertain of their safety, have either left, or are planning to. Mosques, schools and metro stations are available as shelters, an Iranian government spokeswoman has said, and authorities deny shortages of basic food. But unlike in Israel, Iranian cities do not have networks of official bomb shelters and air defence systems are limited.

Images showed long queues of traffic as people tried to leave Tehran, and social media users posted videos and pictures of the front doors of their homes before leaving.

"People don't know what they are supposed to do in this situation," the Isfahan resident said. "Out of fear, they think the best thing to do is to leave the cities."

The National spoke to one resident of Tehran who had left his home for another city in Iran, and another who was planning his route out.

“It is really scary,” he said. “I have to find a way to leave the city and probably the country.”

Drivers queueing at a petrol station in Tehran as residents consider whether to leave the capital. AFP

Closures of shops, government offices and other businesses make the Iranian capital feel “closed”, another resident said.

“Look, many people left Tehran,” he told The National. “Because the offices are closed, it's practically as if Tehran is closed. But people in service jobs and the people that have to stay, they all stayed.”

Some people are going to the holy city of Qom, normally a two-hour drive south of Tehran, while others are heading to northern regions bordering the Caspian Sea, the man added.

Queues are appearing to buy fuel, he said, and sent The National a picture of one petrol station surrounded by cars. “The petrol stations are operating, they are working, everyone wants petrol," he added. "It’s a long queue. People are waiting for one, one and a half hours.”

Iranians hope Mr Trump could end the conflict by placing pressure on Israel to end the attacks. The Iranian military has said its counter-attacks will continue as long as Israel keeps striking. But people have mixed feelings about how willing or able the US President is to de-escalate.

“I hope Trump can stop this," another Tehran resident told The National over the phone. “Because if he doesn’t, it will get much worse, it will be completely insane."

The overwhelming sense is that Iranians do not want any more conflict.

“If only the war would end, somehow,” the Isfahan resident said.

Additional reporting by Nada Atallah in Beirut