Lebanon's municipal elections, staggered over recent weeks across the country, have ended with the results indicating it is business as usual for the country's ruling parties.
The elections were supposed to have been held in 2022 – the last round was in 2016 – but were delayed three times for a variety of reasons from political bickering to the looming threat of an Israeli war.
That they were largely smooth, ironically in the wake of that war, which Israel expanded nationwide last September, was in itself in a remarkable achievement in a country seeking a fresh start but still subject to Israeli attacks and occupation in the south.
The process was not flawless – there were some reports of voting irregularities. There was also the occasional notable swing in certain districts and some surprise winners.
But overall the results showed that Lebanon's traditional parties, who have far greater resources than independent candidates and can rely on their sectarian bases, retained their hold on power.
“The main lesson in these municipal elections is that it showed extraordinary resilience of the traditional establishment, sectarian Lebanese parties,” said Karim Bitar, a professor of International Relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.
“Most of them scored very well in their respective areas of influence.”
The grip displayed by the traditional parties, many of which are usually opposed to each other, was best illustrated in Beirut when rival sectarian parties teamed up to form a single list described by Prof Bitar as a “sort of unholy alliance”.
The Christian-led Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party teamed up with their foe Hezbollah and its Shiite ally the Amal Movement to form a single list and win. These respective sides normally spend their time deeply wary of each other.
Prof Bitar said it was “pretty ironic” to see these parties joining forces.
“When they get along, when they find a way to split the pie, everything goes well. This is what happened in the elections. But very rapidly we will see a return of the old divisions,” he said.
The parties said it was done to respect confessional parity, an argument that has not necessarily convinced everyone. There are no confessional quotas in the municipal councils, unlike parliamentary elections where seats are divided up to reflect Lebanon's multitude of religious faiths.
Reformists, who won around a dozens seats in the 2022 parliamentary election, were always likely to have a harder time working against an entrenched system in the municipal polls. Local elections normally have a lower turnout compared to parliamentary polls, making the task for newcomers harder.
Lebanon seeks fresh start
The elections were much needed; around a half of the 1,000 municipalities in Lebanon were essentially inactive or barely functional, such was the gap in time since the last election.
“We have a chance again to resume things at times when local authorities are really needed to the maximum. Regardless of the area or sect, everybody was able to express themselves and elect new teams,” said a senior official in the Lebanese Forces, parliament's largest political party.
“It's a major credit for the new administration,” the official said referring to the Lebanese government that took power this year.
“Democratic life should always be taking place and should never be disrupted. And it's an extra point in our [Lebanese Forces] favour that all the calls for delaying the elections were proven to misplaced,” the official added.
Lebanon's MPs ended a two-and-half year political impasse in January by electing Joseph Aoun as head of state. The former army commander designated former International Court of Justice chief judge Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister, with the two men seen as outside the traditional ruling classes and not the preferred option of Hezbollah.
The new administration is regarded as having made positive steps in its first months, but faces a daunting task.
Vast swathes of south Lebanon lie in ruins from Israel's bombardment last year. A low-level border conflict with Hezbollah, which broke out in parallel to Israel's war on Gaza, erupted overnight last September when Israel launched an all-out war on Lebanon, killing more than 4,000 people, wiping out much of Hezbollah's leadership and leaving huge parts of the country in ruins.
Despite a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel emerging last November, the latter continues to strike south Lebanon on a daily basis and occupies five points of Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah retains support
The vote over the weekend in South Lebanon was an important test of Hezbollah's support base given its diminished strength and calls for its disarmament. It was one it passed, easily.
Voter turnout was generally lower in south Lebanon, while no formal voting took place in some areas because the joint list between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement ran unopposed, such is its enduring popularity.
“Hezbollah paid with their blood, including Sayyed Hassan [Nasrallah]” said Zainab Saideh, explaining why she continued to stand with the Lebanese political party and armed group, whose leader was assassinated by Israel in September.
She made the comments after casting her ballot in Jwaya, a town 15km from the border that Israel targeted repeatedly. She no lives in a rented apartment because her house in the town was destroyed during the war.
Some residents of the border villages that were completely destroyed cast their votes in nearby cities. While Israel is bombing south Lebanon on a daily basis, it appeared to relent for the elections on Saturday.
“Nothing happened, no security breaches and people were able to expresses themselves,” the Lebanese Forces official said.
“Most importantly, each municipality – which is the first public authority – they were able to reform again,” they added.
