US and Iranian delegations are meeting in Muscat on Saturday for talks that could either pave the way for a new nuclear agreement and broader regional understandings, or risk fuelling further conflict in an already volatile Middle East.
On the eve of the talks, US President Donald Trump said Iran “can’t have a nuclear weapon”.
“I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country, but they can’t have a nuclear weapon," Mr Trump told reporters on Friday night aboard Air Force One as he flew to Florida for the weekend.
His comments came hours before his envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman.
Signs of openness, but also threats, have preceded the negotiations, the first between a Trump administration eager for a quick deal and an Iranian leadership determined to show the country is not yet at its weakest point, despite the heavy blows it and its proxies have endured in the past year and a half.
With only a few months to go before Termination Day comes in October for the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was agreed on by former US president Barack Obama, the pressure is on for Iran to comply with an agreement before more sanctions hit a struggling economy.
This time, the faces are new, the atmosphere different, and the stakes for the region are higher than ever if de-escalation and containment are not made immediate priorities. The good news, experts say, is that in today’s climate, the chances of reaching at least a preliminary agreement are higher than before.
“When the JCPOA was signed, Iran was in the position of the foe for the region. Today, it’s not. The sectarian conflict between the two crescents [Sunnis and Shiites] is not there any more and this is a major enabler for success,” said Mohammed Baharoon, director general of the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre (B'huth).
Amid this shifting atmosphere, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a notably different tone on Wednesday, extending a welcome to US investors, marking a departure from the combative rhetoric typically directed at Tehran’s chief adversaries. On the other side, US deputy special envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus told The National in an interview that the Trump administration is packed with officials focused on “deliverables” and “outcomes”.
US deputy special envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus: 'We know how to get deals'
However, members of the US team involved in reaching the 2015 agreement told The National there are factors now that could work against the talks succeeding. These include Mr Trump's history with Iran after pulling the US out of the JCPOA deal in 2018, during his first term in office, and adopting a policy of “maximum pressure” towards Tehran.
“We didn't have years of bad blood having built up, but we do now, and in particular with this president, and in particular with, you know, an Iranian system that didn't fully believe that we would commit to a deal in the first place,” said Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who was part of the JCPOA negotiating team.
Gary Samore, director of the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University in Massachusetts, who was involved in forming the framework of the agreement, said it was unclear whether the US negotiating team was strong and knowledgeable enough to make a deal happen.
“My own sense is that they don't really have the team capable to do a similar kind of deal as we got. But it doesn't mean that they can't do something,” he told The National.
Former UK ambassador to Iran, Nicholas Hopton, told The National that in his experience of dealing with Tehran, their main focus would be on buying time to ensure that they did not come under US-approved attack from Israel.
“Regime survival is always the core focus. After that, they will be aiming to see sanctions reduced,” said Mr Hopton, who is now director general of the Middle East Association in the UK.
“They need to show they are willing to engage, even if indirectly at first, which could lead to direct talks.”
He said that in the short-term, a loosening of support for Iran's regional armed allies may be necessary as they no longer have the same ability to pursue a strategy of “forward defence”, but that Hezbollah in particular would maintain its long-term backing.
“They are starting from a position of zero trust towards the US, which may be understandable given President Trump doesn’t always respect deals made by other people or even by himself, as we’ve seen perhaps at times, recently with Ukraine and Gaza.
“From the American perspective, unlike his first presidency when he set out to destroy the JCPOA, he now seems focused on negotiating a different kind of deal, something which beyond removing the threat of nuclear capabilities, could be focused on wider security issues and economic stability in the region.”
For the EU, the hope is for a breakthrough regarding the nuclear issue. “It’s important that we move forward on the nuclear file,” a senior European diplomat told The National. “We very much hope that American attempts to come to a negotiated solution with Iran is successful.”
Israel factor
Despite the overall promising signs, challenges remain on the horizon. In 2015, Israel's regional interests were not a significant part of the deal. Today, however, the dynamic has shifted. Israel and the US, particularly under Mr Trump, appear more closely aligned, with Washington showing greater willingness to involve Israel in major regional decisions.
Any solid deal would undoubtedly bring some de-escalation to the region, which has been a flashpoint of violence for more than 18 months and is in dire need of containment. But for many, the question is whether the US is willing to settle for an agreement that would bring a win for Mr Trump as a negotiator of peace, even if Israel is not entirely on board.
“Israel's involvement would add a difficult layer to the talks,” said Francesco Schiavi, a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute of Switzerland.
“Israel will have a very important role from Washington’s perspective regarding the final composition of the deal but, at the same time, I’m quite also equally sure that Trump's approach will lead him to get that achievement even if it’s not 100 per cent in the interests of [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Still, the onus remains on Iran and whether it is willing to place its potential gains as a regional team player ahead of its decades-long legacy as the face of the “resistance”.
Undoubtedly, however, Saturday's talks are historic and will mark the first time Mr Trump has negotiated with Iran. A breakthrough, no matter how small, could be the beginning of the end of nearly 50 years of distrust between the two nations.
“Tehran knows how to speak to the Trump administration,” said Holly Dagres, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, referring to an opinion piece written by Mr Araghchi in The Washington Post. There, he highlighted issues that are known to matter to Mr Trump, including incentives for trade and the need to avoid war.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the current faces of Iran's government will be the hope the country needs to break the stalemate and breathe new life into US-Iran relations, its economy and its future.
With reporting from Paul Carey in London and Willy Lowry in Washington.
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