US air strikes on Yemen’s Houthis will not defeat the rebels nor deter them from attacking shipping in the Red Sea; instead a diplomatic push is needed, experts have told The National.
Washington has launched strikes on the Iran-backed rebels since mid-March, after they threatened to resume their attacks on international ships and Israel. US President Donald Trump vowed to “annihilate” the group, which says the strikes will not limit its capability.
“The US strikes by themselves cannot defeat the Houthis,” Baraa Shiban, a Yemen expert and associate fellow at the Rusi defence and security think tank, told The National. “The Houthis control a vast territory that enables them to absorb the damage. Like any other war, without ground operations, air strikes cannot guarantee you a victory.
“The US needs to work with its Yemeni allies [the internationally recognised government] – the Yemenis who gain the most out of defeating the Houthis.
“The Houthis are obsessed with territory and so far they are not losing territory. Until they start losing territory, the impact will always be limited,” Mr Shiban said. “Similar to Hezbollah, they will be heavily damaged if they start losing their command structure. This is the backbone of the group and what enables them to continue their operations despite the many challenges they face.
The rebels began targeting ships in the Red Sea in November 2023, a month after the start of the Israel-Gaza war, claiming solidarity with the Palestinians. The attacks continued despite the US and the EU deploying naval forces in the area, but halted after a ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas went into effect on January 19.
Thomas Juneau, a Middle East analyst and professor at the University of Ottawa in Canada, said a diplomatic push alongside the air campaign was needed to stop the Houthi threat.
“As long as there is no viable, unified anti-Houthi front in Yemen, the Houthis will continue to dominate domestically and pose a threat regionally,” Mr Junea told The National.
Houthi military capabilities
The US strikes have focused on military installations and equipment, as well as draining Houthi resources, but the group has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt and recover during the past decade of civil war.
“Houthi military installations and assets are scattered throughout the country, often in mountainous or urban areas, and have been designed to be able to withstand air attacks by a more militarily powerful adversary,” Mr Junea said.
Although the latest US strikes will cause more material damage compared to the limited strikes under the previous administration, of President Joe Biden, it will not be enough, he said.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at London's Chatham House, pointed out that the Houthis operate in mountainous terrain and have also built underground capabilities, saying: “It will be very difficult to target everyone and everything.”
Moreover, years of conflict “have emboldened rather than weakened the Houthis and at this point they have nothing to lose”, Ms Vakil told The National.
“It is likely that their military capabilities will be damaged and some operations will be disrupted. There is a scenario where they lay low for a while and recoup and consider new tactics,” she said.
Alternative methods
Afrah Nasser, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Centre in Washington, said military force alone was not enough when dealing with the Houthis, and the US administration should recognise Yemen's intricate situation.
“A successful approach demands a comprehensive strategy integrating military, political, economic and diplomatic elements,” Ms Nasser said.
The US should “closely align with a unified Yemeni government to effectively counter Houthi influence”, she said, and recognise that the “Houthis are both a local actor with autonomous ambitions and an Iranian ally, rather than a mere proxy”.
Regional partners must be involved as well as Yemen’s international government, she said.
“This requires integrating regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, into a cohesive strategy that prioritises a negotiated settlement, economic stabilisation and inclusive governance, rather than relying solely on military pressure,” Ms Nasser said.
Additionally, Iran's “umbilical cord” and channels through which the Houthis smuggle weapons, missiles and drones must be cut, Marwan Ali Noman, former Yemeni deputy permanent representative to the UN, told The National.
“The Yemeni government should be supported to regain full control of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” Mr Noman said. He said it was vital that air strikes targeted Houthi leaders and not civilian infrastructure.
“Civilian casualties will support the Houthi narrative that they’re in a war against the US and Israel and will help them in mobilising more recruits,” he said.
