Sudan's war far from over despite significant army gains over RSF

Victories in Khartoum have restored prestige of military, with RSF maintaining strongholds in west

Soldiers from Sudan's army celebrate after capturing the Republican Palace in Khartoum, from RSF forces on March 21. AP Photo

Taking back vital areas in the heart of Sudan's capital has boosted the army's morale and restored much of its standing after the battlefield setbacks it suffered in the early days of the war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. However, the litmus test for Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and his troops may still lie ahead.

The army and its Islamist allies have over the past week retaken important sites in the capital, including the presidential palace – the seat of Sudan's government for nearly 200 years – as well as the central bank headquarters, the national museum and several government ministries.

Their gains in central Khartoum added to successes late last year when they regained control of the armed forces headquarters and most of Khartoum's twin cities of Omdurman and Bahri. They also threw the paramilitaries out of central Sudan, the breadbasket of the vast and impoverished Afro-Arab nation.

However, the RSF, led by Gen Mohamed Dagalo, is still in control of the capital's only international airport, parts of Omdurman and large residential districts in Khartoum, where its fighters are deeply embedded and may prove challenging to push out. Analysts, however, say it may only be a matter of time before the army and its allies retake the rest of the sprawling capital on the Nile.

“Besides the strategic and symbolic significance of taking back control of the capital, the army's objective there was also to salvage the prestige of Al Burhan and the army, which had been embarrassingly run out of the capital by the RSF,” said Sami Saeed, a US-based Sudan expert.

“It's widely anticipated now that the army will dig deep in the capital as well as central, eastern and northern Sudan, while the RSF will do the same in its strongholds in the west. The narrative propagated by both sides partially supports that notion, with the Islamists allied with the army speaking of a Sudan whose boundaries stretch from the Red Sea to the Nile, and the RSF actively championing the rights of the 'marginalised' people of Darfur and Kordofan."

The RSF, whose forerunner was a notorious, Darfur-based militia called the Janjaweed, controls most of Darfur and large areas of Kordofan, to the south-west. Like Darfur, Kordofan has been mired in strife for years, with indigenous rebels pitted against successive governments in Khartoum.

Addressing mourners at the funeral of a senior officer killed in an RSF drone attack in Khartoum last weekend, Gen Al Burhan was adamant the war would only end when the RSF surrenders or is defeated. He rejected out of hand the idea of mediation.

A displaced Sudanese woman holds her child as they take shelter in a school in Omdurman. AP

His pledges to press on with the war could only add to the devastation Sudan has suffered since the war broke out in April 2023. Tens of thousands have been killed, more than 12 million displaced and one of the world's worst humanitarian crises has developed, with some 25 million facing acute hunger.

However, Mr Saeed and other analysts believe taking the war to Darfur, where the RSF has the support of most residents, and Kordofan, where the paramilitary is allied with a powerful rebel group, is likely to prove a tough challenge for an army with a poor track record of fighting adversaries in the nation's outlying regions.

Additionally, there is growing evidence that the RSF is pulling its most combat-seasoned fighters and heavy weaponry from the capital and sending them to Darfur, a vast region the size of France where the army is holding on to just one major city – El Fasher – which has been under siege by the paramilitary for nearly a year.

“The war may have entered the countdown stage but it will not end before the whole of Khartoum is regained, as well as Darfur and Kordofan,” said Sudanese analyst Salah Mansour, a retired army brigadier general. “The RSF is in a weak and defensive position but will use urban warfare to prolong the war.”

Mr Saeed said moving fighters men and resources to the war in Darfur was a "costly and difficult task with an uncertain outcome".

"Most residents in Darfur are armed and everyone has a problem with the central government,” he added. “The army may at the end settle for making life hard for the RSF there” using air strikes, artillery and drones.

Displaced Sudanese children taking shelter in a school in Omdurman. AP

In contrast, military analyst and retired army general Al Moatasem Abdel Ghafar believes fighting the RSF in Darfur and Kordofan could prove less challenging for the army than battling the paramilitaries in Khartoum.

“It will be less difficult if enough resources are mobilised to do the job in Darfur and Kordofan,” he said. “The battles of Khartoum and central Sudan have proven that the RSF suffers structural problems manifested in the absence of reliable and consistent communication between commanders and men on the ground."

The army's chronic lack of sufficient manpower has forced it into an alliance with Islamist militiamen and volunteers linked to the regime of former dictator Omar Al Bashir. The alliance has cost Gen Al Burhan and his military-backed government significant popular support given the notoriety of Al Bashir's 29-year regime and the brutality with which his loyal militias dealt with dissent.

Experts believe the army's Islamist allies will soon want to collect political rewards for helping the army and may not have the appetite to fight outside the hinterlands of Sudan's Arabs in places like Darfur and Kordofan.

In another ominous sign for the army, the RSF, whose fighters are mostly drawn from Arab tribes, has recently forged alliances with two Darfur militias whose members are from the ethnic African Zaghawa and Fur tribes.

On another level, the alliances signal a shift in the ethnic power balance in Darfur with the potential to have an impact on the course of the conflict in Darfur given the RSF's history, dating back to the 2000s, of widespread abuse of African communities there

Another threat that faces the army is the potential of a wider conflict that drags some of Sudan's neighbours into its war against the RSF. Already the army frequently claims that thousands of Africans from neighbouring nations are fighting alongside the RSF.