Withdrawal of US support in Syria would be ‘nightmare’ in fight against ISIS, says commander of allies


Lizzie Porter
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Any withdrawal of US military forces and equipment from Syria by new US President Donald Trump would be a “nightmare” scenario and aid a resurgence of ISIS, the commander of a US-backed Syrian military group has said.

Syrian Free Army commander Col Salem Turki Al Antri said his forces were already having to deal with an increased area under their control, following the fall of former president Bashar Al Assad.

In an interview with The National at the Al Tanf military base, near the Syrian border with Iraq and Jordan, Col Al Antri said a withdrawal of US support for his troops, who are co-ordinating with the new government in Damascus, would be “devastating” for their ability to fight remnants of the extremist group in Syria.

“Syrian manpower is capable, and they have sufficient training and experience in the sector, but it is the technological superiority that the coalition has, let’s be clear, that’s what affected and destroyed ISIS, in addition to the efforts of the Syrians,” said Col Al Antri.

The Syrian Free Army, composed of Arab fighters mostly from central and eastern Syria, has been working with a US-led coalition that has been fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq since 2014.

Formed from mergers of previous rebel coalitions, the unit is stationed alongside a small number of US troops at the garrison deep in the desert on Syria’s border with Iraq and Jordan. Its members have received training from US forces.

A US withdrawal would affect his men’s ability to fight ISIS because they rely on US air strikes, drone surveillance and other superior military technology to pinpoint ISIS cells roaming the desert, who remain despite an overall defeat of the group in Syria in 2019, said Col Al Antri.

“It would not only be impactful, it would be devastating. Losing this advantage means we lose our ability to control and we will be surprised that ISIS will be stronger,” he said.

The pertinence of the issue has been heightened by the political and military uncertainty following the end of more than half a century of rule by the Assad family over Syria.

A new government has been formed in Damascus by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the group that led the offensive that ousted the Assad regime last month.

“The [new] government is struggling to control things – they are trying their best, but they don't have a magic wand so that within a week everything is over,” Col Al Antri said.

“It needs years to reorganise things so that they are in an organised state capable of assuming its full responsibilities towards the people in terms of protection and in other aspects.”

In his previous term in office, US President Donald Trump tried to withdraw US troops from north-eastern Syria. AP
In his previous term in office, US President Donald Trump tried to withdraw US troops from north-eastern Syria. AP

In the desert between the oasis city of Palmyra and the base at Al Tanf, main roads are dotted with checkpoints manned by clusters of fighters from the Syrian Free Army, but wide expanses of the desert remain vulnerable. Abandoned military bases along with rusting tanks and other military equipment left by fleeing former regime forces lie scattered on the rough sand and rolling hills. Buildings destroyed in air strikes against ISIS line the roads.

In his previous term in office, US President Donald Trump tried to withdraw US troops positioned in separate, Kurdish-majority areas of north-eastern Syria, but some troops remained after he faced pushback from US politicians and officials. Washington has clashed with Turkey over US support in that area for Kurdish militias, which Ankara considers terrorist organisations.

At that time, the Syrians at Al Tanf were not affected, after Mr Trump said Israel and Jordan asked the US to leave a small force in south-eastern Syria.

In December, the US acknowledged it had 2,000 troops in the country − more than double the 900 it had previously disclosed, although the Pentagon said the additional numbers were temporary.

The previous drawdown in Syria stirs fears in Col Al Antri. The territory under the Syrian Free Army’s control has expanded threefold, from a radius of around 55 square kilometres to more than 150 square kilometres in the past five weeks − as Syrian army troops and their Russian and Iranian allies withdrew.

If there is a withdrawal, “we, as Syrians, will lose air superiority, air control, surveillance, and the ability to direct accurate and destructive strikes on any ISIS gathering,” he said.

“If we lose these features, we will not say that we are unable to fight ISIS, no, we have been trained over years and are able and equipped to build alliances all the way from Syria to fight ISIS.

“But there will be a slowdown or delay in the operation or a weakening of the operation if the coalition countries decide to be out of the scene, and this will not pose a threat to Syria, it will pose a threat to the whole world.”

Remnants of ISIS still operating in the Syrian desert could take advantage of any remaining weapons and military equipment in the vast expanses, and Col Al Antri’s forces do not have the full means to pursue them, he said.

“There is a lack of resources, there is [ISIS] movement everywhere in terms of operations. They are watching, they are collecting, we receive intelligence with some accuracy about their attempts to assemble,” said the Syrian Free Army commander.

His men are monitoring ISIS movements and “the type of weapons they are collecting”, which are “put on the map for future military calculations”.

Col Al Antri graduated from military college in Syria under the former regime, before defecting to join rebels.

As the Assad regime fell last month, Mr Trump said Syria was “a mess, but is not our friend”.

On his Truth Social network, he posted: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

Syria’s new de facto leader, Ahmad Al Shara, congratulated Mr Trump on his inauguration on Monday, suggesting the new authorities want to reach out to Washington as they aim to build diplomatic ties around the globe and persuade world powers to lift sanctions on Syria.

“We have the faith that, with this administration, the United States and Syria will take the opportunity to form a partnership that reflects the aspirations of both nations,” Mr Al Shara said.

Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led military operation against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, did not respond in time for publication to a request for comment on if it is planning to boost support for the Syrian Free Army.

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Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: January 26, 2025, 10:57 AM