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The last time Iran’s proxies launched a co-ordinated attack on Israel was prior to Hezbollah’s significant losses in September. Since then, their actions have steadily declined.
Sources close to several militant groups in the region revealed that the daily co-ordination process – once primarily focused on selecting targets and timing attacks against Israel and US forces – has now shifted into a communication channel mainly used to discuss developments.
“We may have lost an advanced front and a forward position on the line of confrontation with the Zionist enemy, but this does not mean the collapse of the axis,” said an Iraqi militias commander.
Another Iraqi source said that “the unity of the fronts may shift toward expanding its presence in the media and political arenas to strengthen public support”.
Hezbollah has faced major setbacks in both Lebanon and Syria, leaving it with substantial military, financial and social recovery to undertake, particularly as the devastation from its war with Israel has exacerbated Lebanon’s economic and social crises.
Similarly, Hamas in Gaza is grappling with the aftermath of Israel’s relentless assault that has destroyed large parts of the Palestinian enclave and killed more than 44,800 people, further straining its resources and support base.
In Iraq, militias aligned with Iran are increasingly under threat from US strikes, forcing them to operate cautiously and limit their activities. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, despite continuing their attacks, have reduced their public visibility out of fear of targeted assassinations.
Each group within Iran’s Axis of Resistance is now prioritising its survival.
But despite Hezbollah's losses in Lebanon, the forced decoupling from a ceasefire in Gaza, and the collapse of the Syrian regime – which prompted retreats by Iran-backed groups in the region – Iranian officials insisted Tehran has not been weakened and that its axis of influence remains strong.
A source close to the Hezbollah camp in Lebanon argued that the “axis of resistance is not a temporary political alliance. It is an expression of a popular, national and political situation that crosses borders and is united by common goals.”
Therefore, it is “directly concerned with continuing to confront and thwart the current Israeli goals against Syria, even if the pillars of the axis are exposed to a major Israeli-American-western attack, and the losses it has suffered”, according to the source.
“The spirit of resistance will remain throughout the region.”
Losing Syria
The early attacks by the “Axis” factions would have probably pleased the late Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani, who was assassinated by the US. Suleimani, who once claimed to have been present with Hezbollah in Lebanon during the 2006 war with Israel, commanded the Quds Force, a branch of the IRGC tasked with working with irregular militia forces across the region, building Iran's proxy units as a bulwark against Israel.
Four years after the drone strike that killed him and others near Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020, Suleimani's vision of an Iranian-led “united front” – from Lebanon to Yemen – looked more sensible, with representatives of Iraqi militia groups saying in January that they had been attending meetings inside a joint operation command in southern Lebanon with Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranians.
But what began as a powerful united campaign that disrupted shipping lanes, struck Tel Aviv and launched hundreds of rockets and drones against Israel, now looks disjointed and stalled.
“It is true that we have lost Syria, the most prominent state in terms of support and assistance and providing all logistical services to the axis and the resistance fronts in Palestine and Lebanon, but the resistance will find many alternatives,” said a Yemeni source in Sanaa close to the Houthi rebels.
“This axis has gone through many difficulties in the past, and thus the axis will recover more and more.”
Experts say Iran is facing a struggle to rebuild its links to regional allies after the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah and the collapse of the Syrian regime to a sworn enemy of Tehran. But Tehran is unlikely to abandon its policy of building up non-state armed groups that had become the dominant source of fighters on the battlefields of the Middle East.
The Yemeni source stated that co-ordination with Tehran remains “ongoing” and expressed confidence that Iran's position will not shift, despite growing voices across the region suggesting that Tehran may be preparing for a settlement with the incoming US administration regarding its nuclear programme in exchange for policy adjustments.
“I believe that Tehran will lead new plans and new actions. The best evidence is that co-ordination is ongoing through the joint operations room,” added the source.
