Syria could rapidly slip back into civil war if an inclusive government is not formed in Damascus after the fall of the Assad regime, a regional Kurdish leader has told The National.
The situation in northern Syria was “very serious, very dangerous” with Turkish-backed forces attacking the Kurdish autonomous region, said Ilham Ahmed of the autonomous zone’s Syrian Democratic Council.
There are also deep concerns that the power vacuum created by the withdrawal of the Assad regime, and the allied Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces, could allow ISIS extremists to seize territory and reintroduce their terror campaign.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces now face a battle for control of north-east Syria after the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army on Sunday entered the city of Manbij, which was jointly controlled by regime and SDF forces.
“There are serious attacks on the autonomous administrations region and the situation is very serious and very dangerous,” she told The National.
“There's a lot of grudges, people wanting revenge so we are very concerned that it might slip into civil war. Therefore, it is very important to find a political solution to move Syria into a democratic country for all and prevent any potential future atrocities.”
HTS dialogue
The SNA has already committed several alleged atrocities, said Ms Ahmed, who oversees relations with foreign governments. As a result, 150,000 refugees had entered the autonomous administration, she added.
But there were hopes that the Kurds could enter into an agreement with the rebels of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, who toppled the government of Bashar Al Assad, she said.
“We have a relationship with HTS and communication with them on the ground,” she said. “We are part of Syria and Syria is changing and we want to play a role in the future of Syria, and we are open to dialogue with everyone, including HTS.”
European backing
Ms Ahmed was speaking in Brussels where she will meet EU officials to secure backing for the Kurds but was still concerned about the “silence from the international community”.
“We are facing an existential war,” she said. “Our very existence is threatened and we need the international community to pressure the Turks to stop its attacks. We want peace. We want to have a normal neighbourly relationship with Turkey.”
She will also discuss the situation with policymakers from France and German as she wanted to send a message to the West that “we are really concerned that ISIS might seize the opportunity to reorganise, threaten our region and Western Europe as well”.
The increased ISIS activity has already seen American forces conduct 75 air strikes against them on Sunday.
“We are struggling to defend our region now and so the global coalition against ISIS must take serious action to defend north-east Syria, to prevent any potential massacres against the Kurdish people,” she added.
Americans in Syria
Key to the Kurds' future was the continued presence of 900 American soldiers in the north-east who play an important stabilisation role.
But there are fears that incoming US president Donald Trump might carry out his threat to withdraw US troops once in power next month.
“It would be really catastrophic if the Americans make any mistakes,” she said. “And we do have concerns about president-elect Trump's withdrawal of troops in the current circumstances and the uncertainty about the future of Syria as this will have catastrophic consequences on thousands of Syrians and protected minorities.”
It could also impact on the detention of 12,000 ISIS members, including 2,000 foreign fighters, who are being held in prisons guarded by the Kurds.
“ISIS still have sleeper cells in certain places and they're becoming very active,” she said. “They will try to attack these prisons to release their prisoners.”
SNA threat
An SDF spokesman also told The National that the group could soon travel towards the Kurdish city of Kobani.
The SNA, which is composed of multiple militias opposing the Assad regime, began its campaign in the north-east alongside HTS’s march towards Damascus.
Its battle for Manbij led to a “huge popular uprising” from the city’s largely Arab population, who oppose the SDF’s control of the city, according to Turkish state news agency Anadolu.
Collapse of regime
The collapse of the Assad regime on Sunday has fast-tracked questions about Syria’s future, and the role that different groups will play.
The SDF hoped to be part of Syria’s democratic transition but feared Turkish “pressure” on the opposition would exclude them.
Turkey considers the SDF’s primary group, the People’s Defence Units (YPG), to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Kurdish separatists who have waged an armed struggle against Turkey since the 1980s.
The Kurdish-run Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which is also known as Rojava, was established in 2012 as Syria descended into civil war.
“What happens in the northern belt of Syria will have implications for the stabilisation of post-Assad Syria and will depend on the territorial and governance arrangements that will need to be agreed by stakeholders in the future of the Syrian state. This will not be easy,” said Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East expert at the Rusi think tank.
Kurds squeezed?
The capture of Manbij was marked by support for the rebels from the city's Arab majority population. “To the surprise of the SDF there was a huge popular uprising against them from inside,” said Omer Ozkilcik of the Atlantic Council.
Repressive practices and allegations of human rights abuses by the YPG had led to discontent, with “not enough” support from Syrian Kurds to back them, he said. “The project of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria is nearing its end,” he added. “The YPG cannot survive. With the change of regime, with the demographic being largely Arab, with not enough support from Syrian Kurds.”
Ms Ahmed said she was “extremely happy” about the downfall of the Assad regime but could not enjoy the moment, “because of the future is very bleak”.
“We have moved away from dictatorship and oppression, and we want build a Syria where everyone can enjoy their freedom,” she said.
