Assad's fall leaves Syrians with challenge of healing six decades of tyranny


Khaled Yacoub Oweis
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Syria entered uncharted political waters on Sunday after the collapse of the 24-year rule of Bashar Al Assad under a rebel advance so swift even his allies in Moscow and Tehran failed to prevent it.

The president left the country by plane to an unknown destination hours after rebels overran the city of Homs, Arab officials said. The capture of Homs cut off the supply line from his seat of power in Damascus to the Alawite Mountains, the ancestral home of the Alawite minority that has dominated power in majority-Sunni Syria for the last six decades.

“Freedom, freedom,” shouted crowds in the main Umayyad Square in Damascus, a few blocks from Mr Assad’s home, as the fireworks lit the night sky.

The downfall of Mr Al Assad undermines years of methodical work by Russia and Iran to expand in the Middle East and weakens the US. He was a crucial link in an uneasy alliance but differed on how much Iran could use Syria as a launch pad to threaten Israel. The Russian and Iranian military presence had reportedly shrunk in Syria in the last week as the iron grip of the regime loosened.

  • Syrians search for relatives whom they believe were detained in secret cells beneath Sednaya prison near Damascus. EPA
    Syrians search for relatives whom they believe were detained in secret cells beneath Sednaya prison near Damascus. EPA
  • Rescue efforts to find prisoners at Sednaya prison continue. EPA
    Rescue efforts to find prisoners at Sednaya prison continue. EPA
  • Israeli soldiers in southern Syria. Reuters
    Israeli soldiers in southern Syria. Reuters
  • Mohammed Bashir, head of US-listed terrorist group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham's Salvation Government, at a press conference in the rebel-held northwestern Syrian city of Idlib in November. AFP
    Mohammed Bashir, head of US-listed terrorist group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham's Salvation Government, at a press conference in the rebel-held northwestern Syrian city of Idlib in November. AFP
  • Crowds gathering at Saadallah Al Jabiri Square in Aleppo. AP
    Crowds gathering at Saadallah Al Jabiri Square in Aleppo. AP
  • Senior insurgent commander Abu Mohammed Al Julani addresses a crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus. Reuters
    Senior insurgent commander Abu Mohammed Al Julani addresses a crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus. Reuters
  • Members of the Syrian government security forces are herded into a field by gunmen in Homs, Syria. EPA
    Members of the Syrian government security forces are herded into a field by gunmen in Homs, Syria. EPA
  • A hall inside the presidential palace gutted by fire after Syrian rebels took over Damascus. EPA
    A hall inside the presidential palace gutted by fire after Syrian rebels took over Damascus. EPA
  • A Syrian rebel fighter fires rounds as people celebrate in Homs after the city's liberation from the stranglehold of the Assad regime. AFP
    A Syrian rebel fighter fires rounds as people celebrate in Homs after the city's liberation from the stranglehold of the Assad regime. AFP
  • People gather to celebrate the Syrian government's fall at a mosque in Istanbul, Turkey. AP
    People gather to celebrate the Syrian government's fall at a mosque in Istanbul, Turkey. AP
  • People gather around Umayyad Square in Damascus. AFP
    People gather around Umayyad Square in Damascus. AFP
  • Rebel fighters cheer from the back of a pick-up truck at Umayyad Square having stormed into the centre of Damascus, Syria. AFP
    Rebel fighters cheer from the back of a pick-up truck at Umayyad Square having stormed into the centre of Damascus, Syria. AFP
  • Syrian government forces cross the border into Iraq at Al Qaim. Reuters
    Syrian government forces cross the border into Iraq at Al Qaim. Reuters
  • A multi-barrel rocket launcher fires at regime troops, in the northern outskirts of Syria's west-central city of Hama. AFP
    A multi-barrel rocket launcher fires at regime troops, in the northern outskirts of Syria's west-central city of Hama. AFP
  • Syrian Kurds flee their homes in the outskirts of Aleppo. AFP
    Syrian Kurds flee their homes in the outskirts of Aleppo. AFP

Over the past 12 days, thousands of political prisoners in jails and secret police dungeons were freed after security forces abandoned their positions in the cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus. The high-walled compounds and security towers underpinned the iron rule of Mr Assad and before him his father Hafez Al Assad, who came to power in a 1970 military coup that deposed another Alawite officer. Posters and statues of the father and the son, symbols of the decades-long personality cult, came down.

“The minimum amount of bloodshed that has been spilt in the past several days leading to regime’s downfall tells you about the direction Syria is heading,” said Fawaz Tello, was jailed for five years for leading the pro-democracy Damascus Spring movement shortly after Mr Assad came to power in 2000.

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, an Al Qaeda offshoot with links to Turkey. Its leader Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Muhammad Al Julani, has instructed the rebels to keep the civil department of the government under the supervision of the last prime minister who served under Assad. Mr Al Shara recently abandoned his nom de guerre, to project an image of moderation, although his organisation is listed as terrorist the US and Europe.

“The message is to maintain continuity of state functions and avoid violence,” Mr Tello said from Berlin, adding that Mr Shara is “currently the leader of the revolution” but that he will become a civilian figure.

“He can run for elections in the new, democratic Syria,” Mr Tello said, adding that core supporters of Mr Assad, who are mainly Alawites, can join in “building the new Syria if they don’t have blood on their hands".

“All what they need to do is to say sorry,” Mr Tello said.

Syria was the last country whose population arose in the wave of Arab uprisings a decade ago. The regime used deadly force to suppress the protest movement that began in March 2011, killing thousands of civilians and prompting a violent backlash by members of the Sunni majority. By the end of it, Syria was in civil war. The country fragmented into Russian, Iranian, US and Turkish zones of control, manned by the proxies of each country.

Ahmad Tumeh, who fled to Turkey to escape persecution after leading the pro-democracy movement in eastern Syria in 2011, said that the rebels “have learnt the lesson” from the disintegration of some states after the Arab uprisings.

“They will avoid chaos. Syria is on its way of becoming a pluralistic, tolerant state,” he said. “What happened has already proved that the Syrian people are capable of miracles."

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
  • Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
  • Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Updated: December 08, 2024, 11:50 AM