Relatives, friends and supporters of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas attend a protest calling for a ceasefire and for the release of the hostages in Tel Aviv on 26 October. EPA
Relatives, friends and supporters of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas attend a protest calling for a ceasefire and for the release of the hostages in Tel Aviv on 26 October. EPA
Relatives, friends and supporters of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas attend a protest calling for a ceasefire and for the release of the hostages in Tel Aviv on 26 October. EPA
Relatives, friends and supporters of hostages held in Gaza by Hamas attend a protest calling for a ceasefire and for the release of the hostages in Tel Aviv on 26 October. EPA

Gaza ceasefire talks resume in Doha but breakthrough remains elusive


Hamza Hendawi
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Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza

Gaza ceasefire talks resumed on Sunday with US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators presenting Israel and Hamas a blueprint for a brief but extendable truce and a hostage and prisoners swap, sources told The National.

The talks in Doha are the first since negotiations ended in August, with both sides accusing each other of acting in bad faith. They are also the first since Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza this month, a development the US has said was helpful to efforts to reach a pause in the war in Gaza.

The sources said the latest proposals on the table provide for an initial truce of up to 10 days during which humanitarian aid will flow into Gaza and a limited exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners in Israel would take place. They also provide for indirect Israeli-Hamas negotiations to occur as soon as the initial truce comes into effect.

The sources also told The National that extending the truce depends on both sides respecting its terms, a smooth swap of hostages for Palestinian detainees and an agreement to continue negotiating. The Israeli and other hostages held by Hamas would be released in batches of five, with priority likely to be given to US and dual US-Israeli citizens.

Palestinian children wait for a meal as they sit around a fire in the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in central Gaza. AFP
Palestinian children wait for a meal as they sit around a fire in the Bureij camp for Palestinian refugees in central Gaza. AFP

The proposals make no mention of a permanent ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza or the return of Palestinians displaced from their homes since the war began in October last year – long-standing Hamas conditions.

Israel is, in return for the freedom of the hostages, offering to hand over Mr Sinwar’s body for burial in Gaza and safe passage for Hamas officials in the enclave along with a pledge it would not hunt them down in exile. Israel also wants Hamas fighters to surrender their weapons.

It is understood Hamas is unlikely to agree to any of these Israeli conditions.

“It’s not Hamas though that will cause the latest round of negotiations to fail,” said one of the sources. “Israel does not necessarily want the war to end,” they added, claiming that Israel's military was planning to push out most of the residents of northern Gaza and establish a buffer zone there.

A Palestinian wounded in an Israeli strike waits at Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza city on October 26. Reuters
A Palestinian wounded in an Israeli strike waits at Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza city on October 26. Reuters

Israel, they said, also had no intention of pulling out its forces from a narrow strip of land that runs the entire length of the Egypt-Gaza border on the Palestinian side, which includes the Rafah land crossing between Egypt and Gaza. Israel captured the Salah Al Din corridor in May. Egypt maintains that Israel’s action breached its 1979 peace treaty with Israel and subsequent accords.

Hamas is believed to be holding about 100 hostages, of whom as many as 40 are thought to have died in captivity, according to the Israeli military. The hostages were among about 250 abducted by Hamas fighters when they attacked southern Israeli communities on October 7 last year, killing 1,200 and igniting the war in Gaza. More than 100 of the hostages were released during a week-long truce in November.

More than 42,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the war began. More than twice that number have been injured and most of the territory’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced, often multiple times.

The latest proposals were finalised during a meeting on Sunday in Cairo between top Egyptian intelligence officials and a delegation from Mossad and Shin Bet.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who toured the Middle East last week, has not spoken publicly about the reported plans. However, he said in Israel last week that US proposals for a Gaza ceasefire announced in May remained on the table but that Washington was open to other ideas.

Mr Blinken’s Middle East tour – his 11th since the Gaza war began a year ago – is perhaps the last push by the Joe Biden administration to end the war on the enclave and Lebanon before the US presidential election on November 5.

The focus of Mr Blinken’s discussions in the region last week was what is known as the “day after,” or the political and security arrangements for postwar Gaza, as well as the reconstruction of the enclave.

One scenario discussed by Mr Blinken was finding a successor for the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and forming a government of technocrats to run both the occupied West Bank and Gaza.

Within that scenario, former Palestinian foreign affairs minister Nasser Al Qudwa is the top candidate for the president’s job while former prime minister Salam Fayyad is tipped to return to the job he lost in 2013.

The formation of a technocratic government to run the Palestinian territories until presidential and legislative elections are held was occasionally floated as part of discussions on postwar Gaza, but failure to reach a ceasefire and a hostages-for-prisoner swap has pushed it down the priority list of the mediators from Egypt, Qatar and the US.

If you go

The flights

Fly direct to London from the UAE with Etihad, Emirates, British Airways or Virgin Atlantic from about Dh2,500 return including taxes. 

The hotel

Rooms at the convenient and art-conscious Andaz London Liverpool Street cost from £167 (Dh800) per night including taxes.

The tour

The Shoreditch Street Art Tour costs from £15 (Dh73) per person for approximately three hours. 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: October 28, 2024, 6:39 AM