Gaza ceasefire talks to resume this week but with little hope of breakthrough

Sources say Hamas expected to join first negotiations since assassination of its political leader, but differences with Israel remain over hostage and prisoner swap and return of displaced Gazans

Palestinians flee Hamad City in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, following an Israeli evacuation order. Reuters

Gaza ceasefire talks are expected to resume this week as scheduled but with little hope of a breakthrough in the months-long mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas, sources told The National on Sunday.

Hamas has yet to publicly say whether it will participate in the negotiations, the first since the July 31 death of its political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in a suspected Israeli assassination.

On Friday, leaders of the US, Qatar and Egypt urged Israel and Hamas to resume the negotiations in Doha or Cairo on August 15 despite the deepening mistrust between them after the killing of Mr Haniyeh and the appointment of hardliner Yahya Sinwar as his successor.

Their call came amid fears of a full-scale war in the Middle East, as Israel awaits Iran’s retaliation for the killing of Mr Haniyeh on its soil and Hezbollah’s threatened punishment for the assassination of its senior military commander in Beirut last week.

A Palestinian boy drags along his bag as people flee the Hamad residential district and its surroundings in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip after a warning from the Israeli army to evacuate the area on August 11, 2024. AFP

The sources said the new round of talks are most likely to be held in Doha and that Hamas was likely to attend.

“For Hamas not to participate will cast it as the obstructing party and lend credibility to Israel's assertions that the group is not keen on ending the war,” said one.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Friday that Israeli negotiators would attend the talks “to finalise the details and implement the framework agreement”.

Even with Hamas participating, according to the sources, the talks are not likely to produce a deal because of the wide gap between the positions of Israel and Hamas over the conditions of any deal.

As in previous rounds since a week-long truce ended on December 1, the sources said, Mr Netanyahu's resolve not to end the war before Hamas is eradicated will continue to undermine efforts by the mediators.

Key among the differences between Hamas and Israel is the latter's insistence that it retains the right to act militarily as it sees fit during the proposed deal's initial six-week truce. Israel is also adamant on vetting displaced Palestinians returning to northern Gaza to ensure that militants do not regroup there.

Palestinians sit with their belongings next to a destroyed building as they prepare to flee the Hamad residential district n Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip after receiving a warning from the Israeli army to evacuate the area on August 11, 2024. AFP

Hamas wants the displaced to be able to return freely to their homes and for Israel to observe the truce fully while talks are in progress to reach a permanent ceasefire.

Israel, according to the sources, is also refusing to release some of the most high-profile Palestinian detainees that Hamas wants freed, and is insisting that some of the others are released into exile outside Palestinian territory.

Hamas wants everyone, including the high-profile prisoners, to be allowed to live in their hometowns whether in Gaza or the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been displaced by the war, with many forced to move several times.

Thursday's talks come as the death toll in Gaza inched closer to 40,000, according to figures released by the Hamas-run Health Ministry. More than twice that number have been wounded since Israel began its bombardment and ground operations in Gaza last October.

Israel's campaign is in response to a Hamas-led raid into southern Israel that left about 1,200 dead. They also took about 240 hostages. About 100 of the hostages were released during the late November truce and an estimated 111 remain alive in Gaza while the remainder are believed to have died in captivity.

“It's time to bring immediate relief both to the long-suffering people of Gaza, as well as the long-suffering hostages and their families,” the US, Egypt and Qatar said in their joint appeal for new talks.

“There is no further time to waste, nor excuses from any party for further delay.”