More than nine million voters in Tunisia could head to the polls on October 6 but as the presidential election approaches observers are wondering if the political opposition can defy the odds.
Opposition members are already sceptical of a system they say overwhelmingly favours the incumbent, President Kais Saied, who controls most levers of power.
As of August 2, more than 100 presidential hopefuls have expressed so far their intention to join the race. They need to gather at least 10,000 voters’ endorsements for their candidacy to be valid, officials from Tunisia’s Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE) said.
Mr Saied denied accusations of centralising power on Monday, saying he had not influenced the judiciary to go after opponents.
“There is no setback to freedoms and those who state that are the ones targeting it through slander, lying and defamation,” he said.
Opposition candidates nonetheless tell of an increasingly restrictive political status quo.
Restrictions on candidates?
With campaigning still in its early stages, Mr Saied – who has announced that he will be seeking another five year term – is already facing accusations of targeting opponents and fostering an atmosphere of unfair competition.
Eleven opposition figures issued a joint statement last week denouncing authorities’ "arbitrary harassment" of members of their electoral campaigns during the endorsement gathering process.
“Violations have affected serious candidates to the point that they [the government] appear to indicate an obvious desire to exclude and restrict them,” they said.
Political newcomer Nizar Chaari said in a video on his official Facebook page that security forces arrested his electoral campaign manager and the person in charge of collecting endorsements, confiscating their phones and computers in the process.
Mr Chaari himself, together with at least four other potential candidates, were on Monday sentenced to eight months in prison based on allegations relating to falsifying endorsements and bribing voters.
Tunisian media has reported they are also barred from running for president for the rest of their lives.
President of the Free Dostourian Party, Abir Moussi, was also sentenced to two years in jail on Monday, for a case filed against her by ISIE in 2023 after criticising its work.
Last month, Lotfi Mraihi, president of the Republican Union Party, was arrested on charges of alleged financial crimes only a few days after announcing his intention to run for the country's top job.
The opposition says the majority of candidates are yet to receive a criminal record clearance document – or proof of good character – which is an essential condition for finalising candidacy.
The main elections body has denied these accusations and said it would ask the relevant authorities to hand over the document to candidates.
Mr Saied has said more than one occasion that he is seeking re-election because he cannot entrust the country to those who he sees as "non-patriots" and "traitors".
The opposition sees the incumbent's statements as an attempt to demonise political opponents and create social divisions.
In July 2021, Mr Saied introduced what he called “exceptional measures”, dissolving the Tunisian Parliament, government and high judicial council, and consolidating all branches of authority.
He has since ruled by decree and introduced a new constitution, which he wrote himself without external influence. The document was ratified in a referendum that drew only 27.5 per cent of voters.
Saving the democracy
Several Tunisian civil society and political actors insist the President’s measures will only erode the country’s nascent democracy.
Speaking to The National on the sidelines of a protest organised by political prisoners’ families last month, Mohamed Hamdi, formerly an MP and minister of education, denounced what he described as "a major setback" to the momentum Tunisians have acquired in the past decade.
Mr Hamdi criticised Mr Saied’s "populist approach" to cement his rule.
He said the President's policy "has failed to accomplish any political or economic gains”.
However, the former government official said he believes in the capability of the opposition.
“Within this context, the political elite is still showing resistance and is trying its best to close these parentheses of absurdity and populist tyranny as well as resume the democratic path.”
Wissem Sghaier, spokesman for the opposition Al Jomhouri Party, said the policies will further complicate the political crisis.
“It is true that we have been weakened and are going through a crisis but we will rise up again and regain our influence.”
Popular support
Despite criticism, Mr Saied remains a favourite among Tunisians, largely due to his measures in July 2021, which all but cast out a political class with which the public had grown increasingly frustrated.
Ridha Soula, a retiree from Bizerte governorate’s public-owned transport company, said he fully supported Mr Saied because of what he perceives as a recovery from the failed post-2011 regimes.
“I am not simply clapping for someone but since Kais Saied took over, the country became more settled and citizens started feeling more at ease,” he told The National in Habib Bourguiba Avenue, downtown Tunis.
Mr Soula, 64, said the instability Tunisians have suffered in the past decade has made him believe the only way out is for one person to run the country.
He said he still believes in the importance of safeguarding rights and freedom but he cannot judge arrests as many details remain undisclosed to the public.
“Speak as freely as you want but just stay away from things that could harm the state’s security,” he said.
