Erdogan's diplomatic overtures to Assad likely to yield only minor wins

Talks with Damascus could help Turkish leader ease domestic concerns

Abdallah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party, formerly supported by Syria, with his guerrillas, at a training camp in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, 1992. AFP

The last time ties between Ankara and Damascus improved, in the late 2000s, Turkish goods flooded Syria, helping to fuel a consumer boom. Demand was even high for Turkish SIM cards in border areas, to avoid eavesdropping by Syrian authorities.

The two countries had strained relations over Syria's support for the Kurdistan Workers Party, a separatist group fighting against the Turkish government.

The opening was part of a wider foreign policy realignment by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to improve Turkey's standing in the Arab world. The rapprochement was a win-win, helping Syrian President Bashar Al Assad break international isolation over his country's suspected role in the assassination of Lebanese statesman Rafik Hariri, while Turkey gained regional influence and economic benefits.

The main loser was anti-Turkish Kurdish militia fighters based in Syria, where they had enjoyed decades of sanctuary.

Between 2007 and 2010, in response to demands by Ankara, Syrian security forces rounded up Kurdish militia commanders, before a secret court in Damascus sentenced them to long jail terms.

But after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war with Syria splintered into different zones of control, Turkey backed Sunni rebels and carved out an area of influence near the border, while US-backed Kurdish separatists seized control of parts of northern and eastern Syria.

Turkish forces and their proxies have clashed with the Syrian army and its Iranian backers several times.

Now, after years of tense relations, the potential for another reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus appears to be gaining traction.

Neither Ankara nor Damascus has provided a clear road map or timeline to normalisation. But on board a plane after returning from watching the Turkish football team exit the Euro 2024 tournament in Berlin, Mr Erdogan renewed an offer to meet Mr Assad, underlining the need to resolve the civil war.

"We have now come to such a point that if Bashar Al Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkey, we will show that approach towards him," Mr Erdogan said.

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi talks with Syria's President Bashar Al Assad ahead of the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, , May 19, 2023. Reuters

Moscow and Tehran, Mr Assad's two closest allies, both support their possible reconciliation, and Mr Erdogan said Russian President Vladimir Putin would attend the proposed meeting with Mr Assad.

Iran has been also using its regional contacts to urge Mr Erdogan to normalise, seeking to strengthen its regional position against Israel by bringing Turkey closer to the anti-Israel "Axis of Resistance".

Turkey has taken a tough stance against Israel and in support of Iran-backed Hamas in the Gaza war.

Rapprochement with Ankara would be a major diplomatic victory for Mr Assad, who wants Turkey and the US out of Syria, and to end his isolation, a process that began last year with the restoration of ties with many Arab countries.

Mr Erdogan also hopes to gain from the move. The Turkish President has three main goals, according to diplomats and members of the Syrian opposition briefed by Turkish officials.

First, he wants Syrian security forces to launch sustained military action against US-backed Kurdish militias in north-west Syria. Turkey's government is fiercely opposed to the Kurdish militias, whose allied separatists have carried out attacks across the border in Turkey. Second, Ankara wants Mr Assad to guarantee the safe return of masses of Syrian refugees who are currently living in Turkey.

Third, it wants talks to resume on a political solution to the war that takes account of Turkish interests in reconstruction and other postwar arrangements.

Mr Erdogan described this potential solution to the war as a "new inclusive social contract".

However, experts have warned Mr Erdogan is unlikely to achieve these goals.

“Even the Turks do not see a real possibility of Assad conceding to anything substantial,” one European diplomat said. “His strategy throughout the war has been not to compromise and rely on Russia for protection.

"Assad has an interest, like Erdogan, in seeing the Kurds undermined, but the United States is in the way," he said.

But even if Mr Erdogan does not achieve his major strategic goals, he could still stand to gain from meeting Mr Assad. The Turkish government faces growing domestic pressure to send Syrian refugees back across the border, and talks could project the image that Mr Erdogan is addressing the public's concerns.

Former Turkish diplomat Omer Onhon said even if Mr Erdogan achieves “a handshake and a kiss" with Mr Assad, it would not solve Turkish concerns as far as the Kurdish militias and refugees.

“He has abandoned this [former] policy of a Syria without Assad," said Mr Onhon, who was ambassador to Syria at the outbreak of the revolt against Mr Assad in 2011.

"This is a very long process," he said.

Serhat Cubukcuoglu, senior researcher at TRENDS Research and Advisory in Abu Dhabi, did not rule out a meeting between Mr Erdogan and Mr Assad, but suggested it was unlikely to produce a political outcome.

“Even if Assad meets with Erdogan, I think the aim is to have a photo op, to appear as having shaken hands, and for Erdogan to both satisfy his domestic interlocutors and his foreign partners," Mr Cubukcuoglu said.

Lizzie Porter reported from Istanbul and Nada AlTaher reported from Abu Dhabi.