Russia launched a $400 million attack on Ukraine over two days that has drawn renewed scrutiny, not only for its cost and scale, but also for the first technical failure in Moscow’s latest missile system.
Of the two $50 million Oreshnik hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine, one fell short into Russian-occupied territory, possibly landing at a position held by Moscow’s troops.
Four Oreshniks have now been fired at Ukraine, meaning the nuclear-capable system – which Moscow has hyped as a major threat to western countries – currently has a 25 per cent failure rate.
Mass attack
The assault at the weekend involved about 600 drones and 90 missiles fired at targets across Ukraine, with one of the deadliest strikes taking place 80km south of Kyiv. Four civilians were killed and 100 injured nationwide.
The strikes caused widespread damage, hitting at least 50 locations in Kyiv alone, including homes, schools and markets, as well as the Foreign Ministry, National Art Museum, Kyiv Opera House and the Chornobyl Museum.
The attack also marked only the third known combat use of the Oreshnik missile system, which has been promoted as a next-generation weapon capable of evading air defences through high speed, travelling through the upper atmosphere with exceptional manoeuvrability.
Missile malfunction
But it appears one of the two missiles fired may have crashed into Russian-occupied territory near the town of Adviivka about 40km short of the front line, according to an Ukrainian open-source intelligence source quoted by the Institute for the Study of War think tank. If confirmed, the incident would represent another setback for the expensive and highly publicised weapons platform.
The attacks are understood to have cost the Kremlin $411 million, and came at a time when Russia’s economy is under severe stress that has only increased due to long-range Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil refineries.
Military observers say the apparent malfunction raises questions about the reliability of the missile system. Analysts have also questioned the accuracy of the weapon since it was fired for the first time at the city of Dnipro in November 2024, largely missing an industrial target.
Russia claims the missile is virtually unstoppable, travelling at 12,300kph and carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) system of six warheads.
Military analyst Hamish de Bretton Gordon also suggested that the use of Oreshniks at the weekend was an act borne of the Kremlin's frustration over frontline reversals and an ineffective offensive this year.
“These are hugely expensive, sophisticated missiles and I have no doubt that all the debris left over are now being deeply scrutinised at weapons establishments in the UK and the US,” Mr de Bretton Gordon told The National. “The Russians say that their great military is fighting a third-class army, but they're using their most sophisticated weapons to kill civilians, and to me that shrieks of desperation.”
Spy chief fears
Oreshnik missiles are understood to have been stationed in Belarus, making them much closer to central Europe, a threatening tactic that is part of Russia’s continued “grey zone” war against western countries.
This was an issue addressed by Anne Keast-Butler, the new head of Britain's GCHQ, who warned on Wednesday that Russia was “relentlessly targeting critical infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains and public trust”.
She added that GCHQ was countering assassination attempts carried out by Moscow.
Britain has also taken further steps to strengthen its ties with countries bordering Russia by signing a defence and security pact with Poland to bolster collective defences and deepen co-operation with the European Union.
