The future of Greenland could be resolved by an agreement under which the US would acquire its own sovereign military bases in the territory, much like Britain’s control of airfields in Cyprus.
It is understood that at Davos, Donald Trump was offered an “off-ramp” as Europe has been resisting US pressure to surrender Greenland, by establishing “sovereign base areas” on the self-governing island.
After days of uncertainty over whether the US President would carry out his threat to annex the Arctic land mass, it appears a deal is in the making to offer up permanent US bases from which to defend the threats from Russia and China.
Intelligence expert Lynette Nusbacher told The National that a sovereign base deal was now the most likely outcome.
“There is a real possibility, if the United States maintains focus on this long enough, that we could very well end up with something like an agreement that has parallels to the UK-Cyprus sovereign base arrangement," she said.
“But we need to remember that the United States already has a ‘status of forces’ agreement in Greenland."
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on Wednesday night what was described as a “framework of a future deal”.
It is understood the deal would grant Washington control over certain parts of Greenland in an arrangement similar to that of Britain's in Cyprus, where it owns military bases in Akrotiri and Dhekelia that are legally sovereign British territory, in a deal made in 1960 when Cyprus gained independence.
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper hinted at the idea, telling the BBC now was the moment to “put forward practical proposals to work through Nato on our collective Arctic security in a way that respects sovereignty”.
She said while the Greenland situation had been “a period of very determined diplomacy”, with Mr Trump’s agreement not to seize the island “we are in a better place and can now focus on the threats that we face”.
She said this included a proposal for a new Nato “Arctic sentry” force in the region and suggested the new bases would be considered after revisiting America’s 1951 treaty with Denmark, which has sovereignty over Greenland.
Crucial Cyprus
Under the UK-Cyprus deal, Britain has crucial strategic military access to the Eastern Mediterranean, with a permanent territory used to base aircraft. These sites were used for numerous surveillance flights during the Israel-Gaza conflict and to bomb the Houthis in Yemen.
Britain can also station troops there for rapid deployment to the Middle East or beyond, giving it a significant military presence in the region.
It hosts radar and signals stations that are key for military intelligence-gathering, often in co-operation with the US.
Arctic focus
It remains to be seen if America will follow through on the arrangement, as under the 1951 deal it can operate bases but Greenland remains Danish territory.
It is also understood the White House wanted to “force Nato to focus more on Arctic” security, sources have told The National, using the Greenland issue to highlight a bigger picture.
“The inside line from the White House was that this was a tactic to force Nato to focus more on Arctic security and to take it seriously,” one source said.
The fear in Washington is that as the polar ice caps melt and the region becomes more strategically important as a choke point, competitors such as Russia and China will increasingly use those waters.
“The administration feels that Nato doesn't take it seriously enough,” the source said of Washington.
