European military leaders have been thrown into a panic over a secret peace plan for Ukraine hatched by the US and Russia, alongside US proposals for giving up the leadership of Nato.
Under the 28-point plan allegedly agreed between the US and Russia, Ukraine would be forced to give up weapons and prime defensive territory in Donbas, and halve the size of its armed forces, effectively capitulating to Russia’s demands.
A leading British military figure has told The National that the proposal’s impact on European security “would be a disaster”.
“It would essentially set the conditions for Russia to come again at Ukraine without any Western European authority or ability to stop that,” said retired General Sir Richard Barrons. “So Ukraine just remains hostage to Russia.”
Furthermore, the US-Russia proposals make no allowance for any peacekeeping force in a postwar Ukraine, undermining Europe’s “coalition of the willing” proposal to provide troops.
Brussels alarm
The alarm among European foreign ministers came as they assembled for a meeting in Brussels on Thursday. The EU’s foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas said that “for any plan to work it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board”.
“Also, we have to understand that in this war there is one aggressor and one victim,” she added. “We haven’t heard of any concessions on the Russian side. I mean, if Russia really wanted peace it could have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire some time ago.” Asked if any Europeans had been part of drafting the US-Russia plan, she responded: “Not that I know of."
Her view was echoed by France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, who bluntly stated: “Peace cannot mean capitulation.”
“The Ukrainians, who have been heroically resisting Russia's uninhibited aggression for over three years now, will always refuse any form of capitulation,” he added.
Secret talks are reported to have been held between Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy, and Kirill Dmitriev, an adviser to President Putin, for three days in Florida at the end of October.
Under a 28-point peace plan, they demanded significant concessions from Ukraine, including recognising Russian as an official state language and giving up its stockpile of American weapons, as well as all of the Donbas.
Gen Barrons, who was co-author of the UK’s latest defence review, said the plan would “cement in the eyes of everybody that a country like Russia can use force to impose its will on territory”, something that would be a “deeply disturbing construct” for the neighbouring Baltic and Nordic countries.
He also agreed that the proposals would mean the capitulation of Ukraine. “It would not exist as a functioning, independent, sovereign state, in anything other than name.”
German Nato
To the consternation of European military and politicians, the US has also suggested that Germany take the lead in Nato while the country has only just starting to rebuild its weakened military.
A German Nato general looked visibly shocked on Tuesday evening when Matthew Whitaker, President Trump’s envoy to the alliance, suggested that the US would prefer Germany to take over the command of Nato forces in Europe.
Mr Whitaker said it was a long-term US goal for Germany to hold the position of supreme allied commander Europe (Saceur), a post consistently held by US generals for almost 75 years, as the continent takes on greater responsibility for its own defence.
While Gen Barrons said he considered the German reaction “a bit squirmy” at the thought of underwriting European security, he argued that the country's leadership was “inevitable”.
Germany will be spending €377 billion on military equipment, according to a leaked paper, and by 2029 its defence budget will be double the UK’s. “In five years Germany will be the pre-eminent army in Europe, and the US is saying ‘we see this coming, and we'll be very happy to hand it on'."
He added that the US was disconnecting from underwriting European security because the Second World War ended 80 years ago, and that given Russia’s aggression it was “appropriate that Germany is attaching military and political power to its economic power”.
“It's the right thing for Germany to do,” he added. “And we should be jolly grateful, because neither the UK nor France, given their economic circumstances, are able to sustain the European military lead that they cling to, with one interesting exception, which is nuclear weapons.”
Kellogg quits
Further concerns for Kyiv came after Gen Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy to Ukraine, stated that he would step down from the post when his 360-day stint ends in January.
Gen Barrons said that was unlikely to be a coincidence, given Gen Kellogg’s pro-Kyiv stance, and that proposals “are simply an acceptance of Russian war objectives”.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was expected to be briefed on the plan by the US army secretary, Daniel P Driscoll, who arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday.
