Papal conclave begins: How long until white smoke rises from Vatican?

All cardinals under the age of 80 can vote on who should be the next leader of Roman Catholic Church

Cardinals will begin their conclave to elect a new pope on Wednesday, bringing with it the intrigue of an ancient system of anonymous voting in Vatican City.

They will choose a new leader for the world’s Roman Catholics after the death of Pope Francis on April 21.

The cardinals are sworn to secrecy, risking excommunication if they reveal what happens in the conclave, and are forbidden from contacting the outside world until they have made a decision.

What is a conclave?

It refers to the secret meeting of cardinals who will gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote for the next pope.

The word conclave comes from the Latin term meaning a room that can be locked with a key. The day will begin with Mass in St Peter’s Basilica, attended by all voting cardinals, before they enter the Sistine Chapel to begin voting in the afternoon.

How is secrecy maintained?

All phone signals will be deactivated within the tiny city state from 3pm (1pm GMT) on Wednesday and will remain off until a new pontiff is elected.

On Tuesday, cardinals were to move into the Vatican accommodation where they will remain during the conclave. They normally stay in the Santa Marta guesthouse, which has en-suite bathrooms and hotel-style room service, but there are not enough rooms for all of them, so some will be housed at Santa Marta Vecchia, a building next door traditionally used to accommodate Vatican officials.

The staff who will support them during the election, from medics and lift operators to canteen and cleaning staff, are also bound to secrecy. They took their oaths of secrecy on Monday.

Cardinals pose for pictures before the conclave to elect the next pope. Reuters

How long will it last?

All 133 cardinal electors will gather in the Sistine Chapel for an election that could last hours, days, or even months.

Both Pope Francis and his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, were both elected within two days. But the longest papal election in history lasted 1,006 days, from 1268 to 1271.

On each day, apart from the first, cardinals can vote four times – twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon.

This conclave could have started on May 5. The delayed starting date might allow the cardinals to get to know one another better and find consensus on a candidate, or at least the frontrunners.

The cardinal electors have taken part in near daily preparatory meetings for the conclave. Discussions have covered topics including the Vatican's finances, the abuse scandal and church unity, as well as the profile of the next pope.

French-Algerian Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco told the Corriere della Sera that the meetings, held since Pope Francis's death, have helped bring together a disparate group of electors.

"We've come from so many countries, many of us had never met before. Finally we have got to know each other," he said.

Who is in the conclave?

This conclave is the largest – and the most international – in history, with representatives from 70 countries across five continents.

Pope Francis appointed about 80 per cent of the current cardinal electors, but experts say they may choose a different type of pontiff. Pope Francis was an energetic reformer who helped open up the church during his 12-year papacy, but he was accused by critics of failing to defend key Catholic doctrine.

The question now is whether his successor will follow a similar progressive line, or take the church on a more conservative, traditionalist path.

President Sheikh Mohamed and Pope Francis exchange gifts at the Vatican. AP

Pope Francis and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, during a welcome ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi in 2019. Getty Images

Pope Francis arrives to celebrate Mass at Zayed Sport City on February 5, 2019 in Abu Dhabi. Getty images

Pope Francis, surrounded by shells of destroyed churches, leads a prayer for the victims of war at Hosh Al Bieaa Church Square, in Mosul, Iraq, March 7, 2021. AP

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi with Pope Francis during a welcome ceremony at Baghdad International Airport, in Baghdad, Iraq March 5, 2021. Reuters

Pope Francis reacts during a meeting with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa in the Sakhir Palace during his apostolic journey, south of Manama, Bahrain, November 3, 2022. Reuters

Pope Francis prays by the Western Wall on May 26, 2014 in Jerusalem, Israel. Getty Images

Who is the next pope likely to be?

Technically, any baptised Catholic man could become the next pontiff, but it is highly unlikely the chosen candidate would be anyone other than a cardinal.

Only cardinals aged under 80 on the day of the Pope’s death are eligible to vote, but older cardinals who are not in the conclave could be elected.

While there has been much speculation about to the frontrunners, one expert described this conclave as “totally unpredictable”. UK theologian Anna Rowlands said that was because the make-up of this College of Cardinals is “very different from anyone that’s been here to elect a pope before”, with higher numbers of electors from Africa and Asia, chosen by Pope Francis.

Catholic commentator Georgia Clarke said there was “a tension between wanting a scholar and wanting a pastor”.

“We saw with Pope Benedict we very much had a scholar, and then in Pope Francis we very much had a pastor," she said. "Obviously, it would be great if we could have both.”

Who are the favourites?

There are "at least five or six" contenders, Cardinal Vesco said.

"There were the so-called natural candidates, those already known for their role and personality. And there are those who speak and make you think 'that is strong'," he said.

"But there is no one who trounces the others, who you think, 'he's the one.' Yet it will happen."

Among the figures put forward as a possible new pope are Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, who was said to be Pope Francis’s choice for the first Asian pontiff.

Others include Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, Archbishop of Budapest; Cardinal Reinhard Marx, 71, Archbishop of Munich and Freising; and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian who served as Pope Francis’s secretary of state.

The Italian-born Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who has played a key role in bringing humanitarian aid to Gaza, is another possibility.

The cardinal, who speaks Hebrew, has made two visits to Gaza since the war began on October 7, 2023. He travelled to the enclave in December last year, when he met the community sheltering in Gaza's only Catholic church, the Holy Family Church in Gaza city.

The leader of the Chaldean Church, Cardinal Louis Sako, was named as a potential pontiff by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani.

St Peter's Basilica, where cardinals will gather to elect the next pope. Reuters

How will the decision be announced?

The cardinals will let the world know their progress by burning their ballots to produce smoke – black for no decision, white for a new pope. A two-thirds majority is required for a new pope to be elected.

Catherine Wallis-Hughes, from the Catholic Voices charity, described it as “really beautiful” that the world will find out at the same time. “The world’s media and someone watching on their mobile phone in Guinea-Bissau, everyone who has access to the internet all together can see that white smoke," she said.

What happens next?

An announcement in Latin of “Habemus Papam” – meaning “we have a pope” is made, followed first by the revelation of the new pontiff's baptismal name, in Latin, followed by his papal name.

Once a new pope accepts his election, he will probably make an appearance on the front balcony of St Peter’s Basilica, which overlooks St Peter’s Square.

What name will the new pope take?

When Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio stepped on to the balcony of St Peter's Basilica after the conclave of March 2013, few outside his native Argentina knew who he was or what kind of pontiff he might be.

When his papal name was announced, things became much clearer. Taking the name of the 13th century St Francis of Assisi, the pontiff laid out a plan for his papacy.

St Francis rejected wealth and wanted to care for the poor. He took care of animals and the environment and appealed against the wars of his time. These traits would become key themes of the leadership of Pope Francis.

During most of the first millennium of the church, popes used their given names. The first exception was the sixth century Roman Mercurius, who had been named after a pagan god and chose the name John II, which was more appropriate for a pontiff.

The practice of adopting a new name became ingrained during the 11th century, a period of German popes who chose names of early church bishops out of “a desire to signify continuity", said Rev Roberto Regoli, a historian at Rome's Pontifical Gregorian University.

For many centuries, new popes tended to choose the name of the pontiff who elevated them to cardinal. John was the most popular, chosen by 23 popes, followed by Benedict and Gregory, each with 16.

What are the probable options?

John, the most common name chosen by past popes and a name Francis often suggested for his successor, would evoke a major figure of the 1960s.

Pope John XXIII, whose papacy ran from 1958 to 1963, was known as a gregarious, smiling man, often referred to as "the Good Pope".

He worked behind the scenes to help de-escalate the Cuban missile crisis and opened the Second Vatican Council, a three-year assembly of the world's Catholic bishops that led to major reforms for the church.

Choosing the name Paul could honour Pope Paul VI (1963 to 1978), who came after Pope John XXIII and was widely seen as a more cautious figure. He is generally seen as a careful consolidator, who firmed up some of his predecessor's reforms, but also gave clear doctrinal answers.

Pope Paul VI, for instance, was the author of a 1968 letter that broadly barred Catholics from using birth control.

Some cardinals have said quietly that after Pope Francis, a new Pope Paul is exactly what is needed. Pope Francis, the first pontiff from the Americas, was not always focused on clear doctrine and even made decisions that sparked debate.

Other popular papal names include Gregory, Clement, Leo and Pius.

There is also Benedict, which could honour Francis's conservative predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI. Or it could honour Benedict XV, who spent his papacy from 1914 to 1922 pleading with European leaders to end the First World War.

A new pope could decide to be called Francis II, which would be taken as a clear signal that he planned to continue with a similar agenda.

Cardinal Albino Luciani, elected pope in 1978, decided he could not pick just one name. He chose John Paul, to honour both of his immediate predecessors.

When he died only 33 days later, the next pope, Cardinal Karol Wojtyla, chose John Paul II, honouring all three most recent popes.

The new pontiff could also choose a double name. John Francis would evoke the reforms of the 1960s and the global attraction of Francis, whose funeral and burial procession drew about 400,000 mourners to Vatican City and Rome.

But the most popular papal name of the 20th century, Pius, would be a clear signal that a traditionalist was taking charge.

Ultimately it is up to the cardinals to decide which direction they want the church to go in. “In the deepest recesses of their mind, when they start the conclave, everyone will walk in there with a name in their head," said Natalia Imperatori-Lee, chairwoman of religious studies at Manhattan University.