Europe's big three, France, the UK and Germany, are determined to brandish their most potent tool in nuclear talks with Iran as they return to the negotiating table on Friday in Istanbul, experts have said.
The so-called snapback mechanism allows for the reinstatement of six suspended UN Security Council resolutions in a move that cannot be vetoed by any of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal was uniquely structured around the role of the UNSC's China, the US, Russia, France and the UK.
"It's unique leverage," said Behrooz Bayat, a former external expert at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and senior fellow at Berlin-based think tank, the Centre for Middle East and Global Order. He said it stops "Europeans from being sidelined" by Donald Trump's US administration.
These resolutions include arms embargoes, frozen assets and restrictions on Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes.
The talks in Istanbul, announced by Iran, come one month after the German, French and British foreign ministers met their Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Geneva. The talks yielded no breakthrough but Iran said it was ready to consider diplomacy again. They were dismissed at the time by US President Donald Trump, who described them as unhelpful. The next day, he ordered air strikes on Iran's nuclear programme after weeks of Israeli air raids.
Looming deadline
Top-tier ministers will not attend the meeting. Iran will send its deputy foreign minister and Europeans will be represented by their respective ministry's political directors. Yet the talks are likely to be closely scrutinised as the October deadline looms to trigger a snapback, which takes at least 30 days.
"It's very urgent," Mr Bayat said. "To retain this leverage, Europeans have to come to a conclusion." Similar talks took place in February 2025 and November 2024.
Contacted by The National, the German Foreign Ministry confirmed the meeting will take place on Friday. A representative said if there is no "sustainable and verifiable diplomatic solution" by the end of August, "the snapback mechanism will remain an option" for the European heavyweights. Last week, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said UN sanctions would be reimposed in August "at the latest" without "a firm, tangible and verifiable commitment from Iran".
There is a perception in European capital cities that Iran is stalling, hoping to avoid consequences before the deadline. At the same time, positions are hardening. Iran insists it will not abandon its nuclear programme. France is now aligned with the US on demanding zero uranium enrichment. Under the nuclear deal in 2015, the figure was 3.67 per cent, deemed sufficient for civilian purposes.
Yet Iran has said it is open to a deal with the West. Reimposing UN sanctions could heighten the risk of military escalation, Mr Bayat warned, because they were all adopted under chapter seven of the UN Charter, which deals with threats to world peace and security. "Maybe Israel will feel even freer to attack than before," he said.
National pride
Israel's recent bombing campaign severely dented Iran's nuclear plants and killed about 1,000 Iranians. The nuclear programme "is now stopped" because of the severity of the damage, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Fox News on Monday. But it will eventually resume because it is a "question of national pride" for Iran, he added.
Iran insists its programme is peaceful in the face of widespread disbelief in the West due to levels of enrichment going way beyond what is needed for civilian purposes. Iran's sole civilian power plant in Bushehr is fuelled with Russian-imported uranium.
Some potential for compromise remain on the table. Iran had told Europeans that it would agree on a deal that allowed enrichment at less than 1 per cent, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said. Iran had also reportedly agreed to include its ballistic programme in the talks, a longstanding European demand.
The figure of 1 per cent might be a face-saving formula for Iran, Mr Bayat suggested. "It's a bit bizarre – uranium is already naturally enriched at 0.7 per cent," he said. "Maybe such a formula would allow the regime to talk to its constituencies [and claim] that somehow enrichment has been rescued."
For Britain, France and Germany, the challenge ahead lies in maintaining pressure on Iran without diplomatic talks collapsing. Europe is also keen to avoid further chaos in the region and may find a legal pathway to prolong the snapback mechanism if no deal can be reached in the next weeks.
"I assume Europeans don't want to activate the mechanism unless they are obliged to do it. On the other hand, they don't want to lose the leverage," Mr Bayat said. "It now depends on how co-operative Iran is."
