Iraq marks anniversary of victory over ISIS amid mounting resurgence concerns

Fuelled by fears of the terrorists' re-emerging in Iraq, Baghdad is monitoring events in Syria

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani makes a speech at the ceremony marking the anniversary of the defeat of ISIS, in Baghdad on Tuesday. AFP

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Iraq on Tuesday commemorated the seventh anniversary of its victory over ISIS, a day that once symbolised hope and resilience. Yet this year’s milestone is overshadowed by renewed fears of a potential resurgence of the extremist group, spurred by escalating instability in neighbouring Syria.

In a lightning offensive, Syrian rebels led by extremist group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) managed to overthrow Syrian president Bashar Al Assad and take control of the country. Mr Al Assad fled to Moscow, where he was granted asylum along with his family on humanitarian grounds, ending nearly six decades of his family's iron-fisted rule.

The rebel assault, which began on November 27, has raised fears in Baghdad of instability across Iraq's western border and a possible spillover of sectarian violence. Since the HTS assault, Iraq has stepped up security along its 600km border with Syria, deploying thousands of troops and members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of factions under the Iraqi army that includes several pro-Iranian militias.

“We commemorate a day that all Iraqis take pride in when they achieved, seven years ago, a decisive and evident victory over the defeated ISIS gangs,” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani said in a televised speech as representatives of various Iraqi security forces stood behind. “The Victory Day has become a landmark in the journey of our people.”

He warned “there are still those who delude themselves, waiting for the opportunity to breathe life into those who remain of them [ISIS]”.

When Mr Al Assad was in power, extremists, linked mainly to Al Qaeda in Iraq and ISIS, crossed into Iraq from Syria after the 2003 US-led invasion, which was followed by years of sectarian killings. In mid-2014, ISIS controlled large parts of northern and western Iraq along with land in Syria, unleashing a devastating war for nearly four years and declaring an “Islamic Caliphate”.

ISIS terrorists celebrate their bloody takeover of Mosul, Iraq in 2014. AFP

In December 2017, Iraqis declared victory after a gruelling war with the terrorists in which thousands of people were killed and hundreds of thousands displaced. Entire towns and neighbourhoods were reduced to rubble in the fighting in northern and western Iraq.

ISIS has lost virtually all the territory it held in mid-2014 but still carries out sporadic attacks within Iraq and has a presence in Syria, too.

HTS leader Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani, has attempted to rebrand his group as a pragmatic player, distancing it from its extremist origins.

In a video addressed to Iraqi government last week, he called for “strategic and economic co-operation” with Iraq, emphasising that HTS’s focus was on toppling the Assad regime, not expanding into Iraq.

But Baghdad remains sceptical. “We warn against the consequences of fuelling conflicts that lead to further destruction, hotspots for extremism and the causes of wars,” Mr Al Sudani said on Tuesday.

"Today, we are closely monitoring the events in neighbouring Syria and we are hopeful that the countries of the region, and the world as a whole will, act responsibly to preserve Syria's security and sovereignty," he added, before stressing the importance of "leaving the choice to the Syrian people and respecting their free will, alongside the international responsibility to safeguard Syria's territorial integrity and protecting its diversity".

HTS leader Ahmad Al Shara speaks at Umayyad Mosque in Damascus after the militants had stormed the Syrian capital and overthrown the government. AP

The US administration shares the same concerns with Iraq and has assured Syria’s neighbouring countries of its commitment to address any threat. On Sunday, the US Central Command (Centcom) said its forces had conducted dozens of air strikes on ISIS targets in central Syria. In a statement, Centcom said its strikes were aimed at ensuring the group did not exploit the current situation in Syria.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that ISIS would try to use this period to gain a foothold in Syria but said his country was determined not to let that happen.

"The end of this regime is a defeat for all who enabled its barbarity and its corruption, none more than Iran, Hezbollah and Russia," he said. "So, this moment presents a historic opportunity, but it also carries considerable risks.

"History shows how quickly moments of promise can descend into conflict and violence. ISIS will try to use this period to re-establish its capabilities, to create safe havens. As our precision strikes over the weekend demonstrate, we are determined not to let that happen."