Ukraine marked 1,000 days of the war with Russia by firing long-range US missiles at Russian territory on Tuesday as European ministers pledged to deepen support for Kyiv amid fears that the US might reduce its military support after president-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.
Speaking in Warsaw with his foreign ministers from Italy, France, and Germany, Poland's Foreign Affairs Minister Radek Sikorski said their meeting sent a “clear message of unity and solidary with the Ukrainian people”.
European countries have shown readiness “to take over the burden of military and financial support for Ukraine in the context of a possibly limited US commitment,” Mr Sikorski said.
“For the first time here in Warsaw, the five largest EU member states have said they are in favour of European bonds to finance defence. This is a real novelty.”
In a joint statement, also signed by the UK and Spain, ministers said they would use “all available levers”, including the economic and financing power of the EU, to strengthen their security and defence.
Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia war appeared to have entered a new phase, as Kyiv confirmed that it had used US ATACMS missiles for the first time to hit a Russian arsenal near the town of Karachev in the Bryansk region – located more than 110km from Ukraine.
This comes just days after reports that US President Joe Biden approved for Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles 300km inside Russian territory. Washington had long feared that such a step would be seen as escalatory by the Kremlin but reports indicate that the change came as a response to Russia's deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its forces.
Lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by updating Russia's nuclear doctrine to respond to any “massive conventional attack” with its nuclear weapons. The decree which was posted online says that an attack against Russia by a non-nuclear power with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as their “joint attack on the Russian Federation”.
“The big picture is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack,” said Alexander Graef, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.
A White House National Security Council official said the US was not surprised by Russia's announced change in its nuclear doctrine and does not plan to adjust its nuclear posture in response. The UK's Prime Minister's office described the doctrine's update as “the latest example of irresponsibility that we’ve seen from the depraved Russian government”.
In Warsaw, ministers recognised that they had lacked unity in the past and had made mistakes in their relations with Russia. They vowed to strengthen their unity in the future and to maintain good relations with the US administration.
Mr Trump's past statements in support of Mr Putin as well as his vow to end the war in one day have raised fears in European capitals that Ukraine may be pushed to surrender on unfavourable conditions in the future.
“It is time to create a new basis for European security and freedom and to continue to strengthen our transatlantic alliance and not weaken it,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said. “What is decisive is not the name of the American president, but the close relations between the United States and Europe.”
Germany had allowed itself to become afraid of Russia, instead of listening to warnings from Central and European countries not to listen to the Kremlin, Ms Baerbock said. She described the Norstream II gas pipelines linking Germany to Russia, encouraged by former German chancellor Angela Merkel, as a “fatal mistake”.
Speaking in parliament, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy encouraged Mr Trump to continue supporting Ukraine. He described him as a “winner, not a loser”. “I’m sure he wants to ensure that the West is on the winning side,” Mr Lammy said.
He described the meeting with his European ministers, which he attended through video link, as signalling a commitment to “double down” on support to Ukraine. “There was a determination to ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position in 2025 and a renewed effort to ensure that we co-ordinate even better in the coming months,” Mr Lammy said.
In Kyiv, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commemorated 1,000 days of war with a speech in parliament, in which he said that next year will be decisive in determining who wins the war. He also said Kyiv may have to wait for the end of Mr Putin's rule in Russia to reclaim its full internationally recognised territory. “Perhaps Ukraine will have to outlast someone in Moscow to achieve all its goals … Perhaps to restore the full integrity of the state,” Mr Zelenskyy said.
In Brussels, the EU's defence ministers held a meeting with Nato's Secretary General Mark Rutte, in which they echoed concerns about Russia's attacks on Ukraine's electricity infrastructure that intensified over the weekend. “What we see at the moment is the escalation of the war because of Russia getting North Korea involved. We have seen last weekend what happened with the attack on Ukraine, which was massive by scale,” Mr Rutte said.
While some EU leaders hailed the US decision to approve Ukraine's use of ATACMS, Germany's refusal to deliver long-range Taurus missiles, combined with a recent call by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Mr Putin before a Russian attack against Ukraine's power infrastructure, have laid bare Europe's dependency on US military support to Ukraine.
