Will AI written novels become the norm? PA
Will AI written novels become the norm? PA
Will AI written novels become the norm? PA
Will AI written novels become the norm? PA

How AI will deepen the divide between literary masterpieces and cheap reads


Daniel Bardsley
  • English
  • Arabic

If a thousand monkeys at a thousand typewriters could pen the works of Shakespeare, then the idea of an artificially intelligent software program creating a literary masterpiece could be just as likely.

Turn the clock back a few decades and the idea that machines could write novels would probably have seemed fanciful, a concept raised only in science fiction.

Today, this is reality. The capabilities of artificial intelligence have now developed to the extent that a bestseller could conceivably be written by a series of circuit boards.

Friend or foe?

When accepting a top Japanese literary award for her book Tokyo-to Dojo-to, set in a Tokyo of the future, the author Rie Kudan recently said that she had used generative AI to her benefit to help produce the book, which features the technology as one of its themes.

At the same time, established authors are up in arms that their books are being used to train generative AI programmes, giving the technology the capability to produce novels similar in style to the ones that they have laboured for years to produce.

Dr Kulvinder Panesar, an assistant professor of applied artificial intelligence in the Faculty of Engineering and Digital Technologies at the University of Bradford in the UK, says that the technology can “definitely” produce novels in the style of those that have already been published.

The “large language models” that generate content can, she says, assimilate and use vast amounts of data, such as all of a person’s published novels.

“That’s why these models are absolutely extortionately big and require so much processing power,” she says.

Prompt engineers

A technique called retrieval-augmented generation provides the large language models with extra information so that they can produce output of a particular type.

“You define this novel in terms of what you want it to look like with a series of prompts. [For example,] have an ‘Alastair Campbell style’ or it must have this many characters or be set in this background,” Dr Panesar says.

Such “prompt configurations” specify the type of novel or other output that is required, while subsequent work can be carried out to refine it.

“This prompt engineering is a job in itself. You might have a few more jobs coming out – writers who are becoming prompt engineers,” she says.

The use of AI in creative writing was a key issue behind last year’s Hollywood writers’ strike, which ended in September with a deal between the Writers Guild of America deal and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers

Hailed as a victory for humans over machines, the agreement allows for AI to be used as a tool, but not to replace human writers.

While wondering whether AI can portray the subtleties of human character in the way a human writer can, James Robert Carson, an associate professor and member of the Creative Writing Research Group at the University of East Anglia in the UK, says that with some types of writing, the target audience may notice little difference whether it is produced by human or machine.

“A lot of writers are producing prescriptive dramas anyway for television shows,” he said. “They’re, ‘Writing in the style of’. In some areas, maybe it’s not that much of a shift.”

Dr Kevan Manwaring.
Dr Kevan Manwaring.

Mimicking existing authors

Last year, a whole range of authors, including well-known names such as Margaret Atwood and Dan Brown wrote an open letter to technology companies saying that they should obtain their permission and pay them if they use their published works to train generative AI programmes.

Val McDermid, a popular Scottish crime writer, is among the novelists to have spoken out publicly over such unauthorised use of her books.

While AI may be capable of taking a writer’s back catalogue and producing additional books of a similar kind, Dr Kevan Manwaring, who teaches creative writing at the Arts University Bournemouth in the UK, says that it cannot replace human input.

Dr Manwaring is himself a prolific author, with several novels among the tally of more than 30 books that he has written, co-written or edited.

“I think artificial intelligence is a bit of a misnomer; I think we should call it aggregate intelligence, because that’s what it does,” he says.

“It only regurgitates or reconfigures what’s already there on the internet. It never invents, because it can never draw upon anything beyond the digital sphere – what we choose to upload.

“It’s only ever derivative, never innovative. It’s excellent at pastiche … If you want a Dickens knock-off, a Val McDermid knock-off, I think AI could do that perfectly well.”

It is a point echoed by Adnan Bashir, global lead for external communications at a software company, Hansen Technologies, who says that AI cannot replace “human ingenuity, creativity, reasoning and cultural nuance”.

“Some of the most resonant creative works of the last few decades mine a person’s lived experience, the depths of emotional complexity, as well as the intricacies of human history and world events. AI cannot be a stand-in for any of those elements,” he says.

Playwright Tennessee Williams at his typewriter in New York in 1940. AI could attempt to copy his works to create new material, but experts say it would fail to match the same standard. AP
Playwright Tennessee Williams at his typewriter in New York in 1940. AI could attempt to copy his works to create new material, but experts say it would fail to match the same standard. AP

“A novel, a play, a record, a film, are all artefacts of culture. In various ways, they embody the zeitgeist and the emotions of the society that engender them.”

He said that AI systems are prone to the biases of the programmers behind them and these may play out in the novels, plays, essays, poems or other works of art they produce.

For all its apparent creative limitations, however, with content now cheap to produce and distribute electronically, it seems likely that AI novels will become ever more numerous and easy to gain access to.

Dr Manwaring says that the generation of novels by AI is likely to be “happening on self-publishing platforms all over the place”.

He sees a “splitting off of the market”, with established publishers, who have reputations to protect, expected to continue to release high-quality, human-written books, while self-publishers will churn out cheap AI-generated novels in ever-greater numbers. He is in no doubt which side of the potential divide he would like to be on.

“To those without imagination, actual skills or real talent, AI must seem like the second coming,” he says. “People who have nurtured their little flame of talent, like myself, they want to use that. Like I say, I love writing. It’s my happy place. I don’t want to lose that.”

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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RESULTS

6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).

7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m

Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.

7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m

Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.

8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m

Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.

8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m

Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.

9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m

Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.

ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA

Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi

Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser

Rating: 4.5/5

GRAN%20TURISMO
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Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

The Saga Continues

Wu-Tang Clan

(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)

Updated: April 01, 2024, 12:06 PM