Syria’s air defences sent missiles streaking through the sky on Tuesday night, racing to intercept elusive Israeli aircraft.
The Israeli air raid, reported by state news agency Sana, was one of almost 1,000 Israeli air attacks in Syria in three years, according to defence analysis firm Janes.
The full extent of Tuesday's airstrikes could not immediately be verified, but appeared to focus on ammunition storage sites west of Homs, and possibly the Him Shanshar military installation, according to analysis firm Aurora Intel.
The US government said in 2018 that Him Shanshar had been used to store chemical weapons.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, told AFP that "these are the first Israeli strikes in Syria since the recent war in Gaza".
The monitor's claim that air strikes targeted multiple governorates could not be verified.
The monitor’s view also implies that the Israeli air force was tied down with the war against the Hamas militant group, and subsequently paused Syria operations.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed at least 256 people during the 11 day war including 67 children and an unknown number of militants, as Hamas fired 4,000 rockets into Israel killing 12 people, including two children. One Israeli soldier was killed.
But during the Gaza war, the Israeli air force continued a campaign to disrupt a developing missile front against Israel in Syria.
Eyes on Syria
Syria has become a “pressure relief valve” in the conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and allied groups who operate alongside the Syrian regime, according to David, an analyst focusing on the region at Aurora Intel, who chooses to withhold his second name.
That pressure valve serves as an unspoken arrangement between Hezbollah and Israel to reduce the risk of a war in Lebanon.
“A war with Hezbollah will be devastating for Lebanon and Israel. The devastation for Lebanon could only grow if Hezbollah continues to expand,” he said.
A conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon would likely trigger an evacuation of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians, a plan reported by Israeli newspaper Haaretz in 2016, dubbed Safe Distance.
The 2006 Israel – Hezbollah war resulted in the deaths of 44 Israeli civilians and around 1,000 Lebanese civilians.
As a result of this risk, Hezbollah and its Iran-backed allies maintain an operational status quo in Syria.
In Syria, Iran-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, have been assisting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in building an arsenal of unguided rockets and Precision Guided Missiles, or PGMs.
According to a report by the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, Hezbollah or any group in Syria allied to Iran could use PGMs to target
“high-value strategic targets: airports; vital infrastructures: energy (power stations, gas facilities, Haifa refineries) and water sources” in Israel.
PGMs could be existing Iran-designed long range missiles, smuggled overland through Iraq into Syria, or unguided rockets fitted with special guidance kits to turn them into precision weapons.
The latter option is preferred by Iran, according to an Israeli military report released last year, because the kits are easier to smuggle than the missiles.
Syria takes the heat
A growing guided missile arsenal in Syria would complement the estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles that Hezbollah has in Lebanon, an increasing number of which are PGMs.
To counter this growing arsenal, the Israelis dedicated aerial reconnaissance assets for monitoring IRGC operations during the conflict.
“Squadron 122 have been monitoring Syria throughout the whole Gaza conflict, they have been airborne several times, visible on ADSB,” said David.
Israeli Squadron 122 is a “signals intelligence” unit which overflies enemy territory, with the potential to jam enemy radar and locate targets.
While these missions were underway, Iran was also stepping up assistance to allies in Syria – perhaps in the expectation that Israel’s capabilities may have been tied up in the Gaza war.
“There were at least 14 IRGC-related flights from Tehran to Damascus since the Gaza conflict began. And those are linked to illicit activities. In previous airstrikes conducted by Israel, including in several documented cases, an airstrike has been conducted within 24 hours of one of these IRGC flight’s arrival in Syria. These flights are monitored and are known, also by their status on the US OFAC Sanction Register,” he said.
Israel may therefore have been monitoring Iranian transfers of equipment to Tehran's allies in Syria during the Gaza war, waiting for the moment to strike.
But can these hostilities go on without escalating and how long can Syria remain the "pressure valve"? Rising tensions across the region could be a factor in a worsening crisis.
"Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned that they are trying to change the equation on Israel so that all of the 'resistance axis' get involved if 'Israel attacks Jerusalem'. This could be the valve starting to close, which in some respect may force Israel's hand. Either way, a war with Hezbollah will be bloody, on both sides," he says.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
MATCH INFO
RB Leipzig 2 (Klostermann 24', Schick 68')
Hertha Berlin 2 (Grujic 9', Piatek 82' pen)
Man of the match Matheus Cunha (Hertha Berlin
Points tally
1. Australia 52; 2. New Zealand 44; 3. South Africa 36; 4. Sri Lanka 35; 5. UAE 27; 6. India 27; 7. England 26; 8. Singapore 8; 9. Malaysia 3
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
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One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Naga
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
