U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he disembarks from an aircraft during his visit to Israel. Reuters
U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he disembarks from an aircraft during his visit to Israel. Reuters
U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he disembarks from an aircraft during his visit to Israel. Reuters
U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waves as he disembarks from an aircraft during his visit to Israel. Reuters

Blinken to discuss what next for Gaza in visit to Israel and Jordan


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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit the Middle East for the second time in two weeks amid continuing demands for Israel to stop the war in Gaza.

Mr Blinken is set to visit Israel and Jordan on Friday, where he is expected to discuss possible postwar scenarios in Gaza and the wider Middle East, a western official and regional observers told The National.

US President Joe Biden said this week that there should be a “humanitarian pause” in the war, after repeated Arab demands that the US and other world powers support an immediate ceasefire.

But Washington has not supported demands by its Arab allies to pressure Israel to end its military operation in Gaza.

Political analysts say Mr Blinken is not expected to back Arab states on their call for a ceasefire, but will instead focus on aid and discuss options for how Gaza could be governed if Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas.

Arab states have been unifying their immediate demands ahead of an Arab League emergency summit in Riyadh on November 11, and are likely to push for a renewal of the two-state solution in the aftermath of the war.

Jordan's King Abdullah called for a “political solution to reach just and comprehensive peace on the basis of the two-state solution” during his visit to Qatar this week.

“Unless the operation goes terribly wrong, the Arabs will continue to be practical and push for the maximum they can get once the war ends, which is reactivating the two-state solution,” said a western counter-terrorism official.

Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (R) meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in Doha on November 1. AFP
Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (R) meets with Jordan's King Abdullah in Doha on November 1. AFP

In Tel Aviv on Friday, Mr Blinken will focus on aid and “post-conflict options” for Gaza, said Israeli political scientist Gerald Steinberg.

Mr Steinberg said “a rapid transition to a post-Hamas regime is vital”, assuming the Israeli military succeeds in reaching its objectives in Gaza.

He said Mr Blinken will be exploring the possibility of the Palestinian Authority of President Mahmoud Abbas filling any postwar vacuum in Gaza, and the “overall Israeli security responsibility”, if Hamas loses.

Mr Abbas reportedly told Mr Blinken in Amman in mid-October that any postwar role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza has to be part of a wider deal that awards it control of land accorded to a Palestinian state in line with past peace deals with Israel.

This position is also endorsed by Jordan and Egypt.

Jordanian Professor Hasan Al Momani said that Jordan, Egypt and Gulf powers have been engaged in “heavy diplomatic activity to agree on a set of scenarios and ideas” to achieve that outcome.

They have been signalling to Washington the need for an US-supervised grand settlement, somewhat similar to Washington’s drive for Middle East peace after the 1990-1991 Gulf War, said Mr Al Momani, who heads the International Relations and Regional Studies Department at the University of Jordan.

“It is impossible to return to the status quo before October 7,” Prof Al Momani said, acknowledging a powerful right-wing component of the Israeli political system opposed to a two-state solution.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might want to continue “reducing the problem to Gaza” but “the Americans are also looking at a post-Netanyahu scenario”, he added.

After visiting Israel and Jordan, Mr Blinken may make other stops in the Middle East, said the State Department, without giving details.

He will then visit Japan, South Korea, and India.

In New Delhi, Mr Blinken will participate in the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, one of India’s highest form of bilateral discussions with its partners.

Taniya Dutta in New Delhi contributed to this report.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

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10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

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