Imagine ordering a coffee for one price, then three hours later being charged more for the same hot drink. You'd think it was a scam but it's an unfortunate reality for Lebanese living through an unprecedented currency crisis.
A customer at Goro, a restaurant in Beirut's Gemmayzeh neighbourhood, experienced precisely this feeling while visiting one of the popular haunts of Beirut nightlife and dining.
Within three hours, the price of his coffee jumped by 9 000 Lebanese pounds, the equivalent of $0.18 on the parallel market, where the national currency topped the symbolic 50,000 mark on Thursday, the first time such an unwelcome milestone has been reached.
"Ordered my first coffee at 10.30am, the second one at 1pm. The Lebanese Lira lost value during that time, resulting in two different charges", he wrote in a tweet on Friday, widely shared on social media.
The sudden increase is due to the restaurant pricing its menu in dollars.
Customers can pay the bill in dollars or in the local currency, but at the parallel market rate, which remains highly volatile and can undergo sudden changes in mere hours.
Once pegged at 1,500 against the US currency, the Lebanese pound has now lost 97 per cent of its value since the start of the crisis caused by a drastic shortage of dollars, which plunged 80 per cent of the population into poverty and led the country to the verge of financial collapse.
More and more restaurants have switched to the dollar instead of the Lebanese pound, which is gradually disappearing from menus.
Restaurateurs say they have no choice. "Because of the volatility of the Lebanese pound, our suppliers are only accepting dollars," said Kamal Darwich, a manager at Onno in Beirut.
He said the price increases also covered rocketing expenses such as gas and electricity, as restaurants have to rely on expensive private generator suppliers in the near absence of state electricity. Salaries, however, are not entirely in dollars but are paid as a mix of both currencies.
The move falls in line with the circular issued last June by Lebanon's caretaker Tourism Minister Walid Nassar, a decision he described as "exceptional and optional" which allows tourist ventures to display their prices in dollars.
Restaurant owners are not the only ones that have taken the leap to hedge against exchange risk.
The greenback is now used for an increased number of transactions, including household appliances, clothing, health insurance, rent and education fees, signalling a gradual dollarisation of the economy.
"The Consumer Protection Law regulates the choice of currency for economic transactions: traders have to display prices and print the invoice in Lebanese pounds, according to its articles 5 and 25," tax lawyer Karim Daher said.
"The chaotic dollarisation of the economy, which is currently happening, is an infringement of the Consumer Protection Law. Should Lebanon move towards a dollar-based economy, authorities will need to adopt the appropriate legal framework and not only temporary decisions."
For some, dollarisation might be the solution for Lebanon.
"It is the best way for consumers to be sure they are paying a fair price, as traders would not need to increase their margin to limit their exposure to the Lebanese pound's volatility, at least for food imports," said Hani Bohsali, the head of the union of Lebanese food importers.
Seizing an opportunity
But other experts fear economic actors are taking advantage of the situation to serve their interests, as the cost of some goods and services are not entirely dependent on the dollar.
"In the case of restaurants, for instance, part of their costs are billed in Lebanese costs, such as salaries. Some of the products are also produced locally, like wine and arak," said researcher Kamal Hamdan, head of the Consultation and Research Institute in Beirut (CRI), an organisation that has been publishing its own price index since 1977.
He said the phenomenon only deepened inequalities between the privileged ones who have access to hard currency, and the rest of the population. "Dollarisation has serious consequences on the vast majority of employees paid in Lebanese pounds, who are greatly impacted by inflation, which has halved their purchasing power," he said.
He stressed that chaotic situations, such as a currency collapse typically induce "opportunistic behaviour".
"In 2022, the index price recorded an annual average increase of 174 per cent, whereas the dollar rose by 93 per cent against the lira," he said.
This means that part of the inflation, one of the highest in the world, surging to 189 per cent in the first 11 months of last year from the same period a year earlier, cannot justified by the collapse of the lira.
Importers, distributors and traders have all been accused since the beginning of the crisis of taking advantage of the currency situation to increase their margins.
Mr Hamdan said: "This has been allowed because the state is not enforcing any price regulation, despite having enacted a competition law in 2022; the Lebanese market remains a complete chaos."
'Nightmare Alley'
Director:Guillermo del Toro
Stars:Bradley Cooper, Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara
Rating: 3/5
Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5
Infobox
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman
The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August
Results
UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets
Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets
Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets
Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs
Monday fixtures
UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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England v South Africa Test series:
First Test: at Lord's, England won by 211 runs
Second Test: at Trent Bridge, South Africa won by 340 runs
Third Test: at The Oval, July 27-31
Fourth Test: at Old Trafford, August 4-8
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Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers