Lebanese politicians and analysts voiced optimism after France and Saudi Arabia on Saturday revealed joint efforts to strengthen aid and halt a diplomatic dispute between Beirut and Gulf states.
But they say any initiative to fully restore ties with Gulf states, historically investors and aid donors for the country, will face hurdles because of Hezbollah’s strong influence in Lebanese state institutions and government.
The push for Saudi and Arab re-engagement in Lebanon, where Iran holds great influence, is the latest French initiative to rally support for the impoverished country after two years of economic near-collapse.
“We are thankful for the initiative, but who is it addressed to exactly?” said Mustafa Allouche, a former parliamentarian and senior member of the Future Movement party.
Future Movement leader Saad Hariri has fallen out of grace with Saudi Arabia after he headed unity governments with Hezbollah.
“This is not an initiative addressed to the Lebanese state, it is an initiative addressed to Hezbollah, asking it to surrender its weapons. This will never happen,” Mr Allouche said.
French President Emmanuel Macron met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on Saturday to discuss trade and regional politics.
They had a “long conversation” about Lebanon and phoned Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
Paris is a former colonial power in Lebanon and it is heavily involved in the country's rescue plans.
France and Riyadh committed themselves to help the Lebanese weather an economic meltdown that has pushed nearly 80 per cent of the population below the poverty line, according to UN data.
Riyadh stressed the need for Lebanon to implement economic reforms and control the spread of weapons outside the state, a reference to the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.
Mr Allouche said the government cannot meet those demands. Hezbollah is simply too powerful.
Diplomatic crisis
The rare high-profile meeting follows more than a month of a diplomatic dispute between Lebanon and the Gulf.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain withdrew their representatives in Beirut and expelled Lebanon’s representation after Lebanese information minister George Kordahi made remarks on television in support of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The group has fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Arabian population centres in the course of their seven-year war against Yemen's internationally recognised government.
Riyadh also banned all imports from Lebanon, a source of scarce cash revenue for the country
The UAE recalled its ambassador to Lebanon following the comments.
Hezbollah backed Mr Kordahi, prolonging a diplomatic crisis with Beirut’s historic allies.
A representative for the group and one parliamentarian declined to comment on Mr Macron and Prince Mohammed’s initiative.
Cooling regional tensions
A day before Mr Macron’s visit Mr Kordahi resigned at the request of the French government to facilitate talks.
“This initiative may stop the deterioration of relations between Lebanon and the Gulf but it will not restore ties or secure significant aid,” he said.
Gulf nations have yet to restore full diplomatic ties or ease tough trade restrictions against Beirut.
Saudi Arabia invested billions of dollars in Lebanon’s reconstruction and postwar economy in the 1990s and early 2000s. Close ties soured after a Hezbollah agent murdered former prime minister Rafik Hariri, a close ally of Saudi Arabia.
The country has since shifted closer to Iran’s orbit.
Riyadh is now working towards mending ties with Iran as nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington resumed this month.
Parliamentarian Imad Wakim, a member of the Christian Lebanese Forces, a party regionally aligned with Riyadh, said Hezbollah could still represent a serious obstruction to repairing ties.
“We heard encouraging statements and ideas, but who can guarantee their implementation? Who can say that Hezbollah will listen and break Lebanon's captivity?” he wrote on Twitter.
Economic emergency
Analyst Mohanad Hage Ali says he is hopeful a joint French-Saudi push will mitigate humanitarian needs in Lebanon.
“The meeting will stop the crisis between Lebanon and the Gulf from widening,” the director of communications at the Carnegie Middle East Centre said.
Paris’ mediation could unblock aid packages from the Gulf that are modest compared to Lebanon’s economic needs.
“We could see some limited aid flowing to Lebanon, but in this context this help will go a long way,” he said, citing talks by the Lebanese government to seek an energy loan with Kuwait that was halted because of the crisis.
Any assistance also faces a difficult political environment within Lebanon. Work on reforms has stalled because the government has not met since October after Hezbollah ministers threatened to boycott sessions.
The ministers demanded the dismissal of a judge who is investigating the Beirut port blast last year.
Judge Tarek Bitar had summoned high-profile politicians who are close to the group for questioning. The explosion killed more than 200 people, injured more than 6,500 and destroyed large parts of Beirut.
Ali Darwish, a parliamentarian who is part of Mr Mikati’s Azm movement, told The National that the government was trying to implement reforms.
“The French initiative has put us on the right path,” he said.
