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Negotiators from the US, Egypt, Qatar and Israel are looking at new, heavily modified proposals to end the Gaza war, sources with direct knowledge of the process told The National on Monday.
A bargain could involve a three-month ceasefire, an exchange of detainees and hostages and an Israeli withdrawal, followed by a handover to an interim Palestinian government in Gaza.
Deliberation began after officials from Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency and the CIA arrived in Egypt at the weekend in a renewed bid to bring an end to the Gaza war.
The new proposals, they explained, stem from an Egyptian draft that was under discussion last month but failed to win the approval of Israel and Hamas, whose fighters prompted the war when they and other Gaza militants attacked southern Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 and taking 240 hostage.
The renewed drive comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have hardened his position on proposals to end the war, dimming hopes for a resolution to a conflict in which more than 25,000 Palestinians have been killed and most of the enclave’s 2.3 million population displaced.
The war has also laid waste to large built-up areas and created a major humanitarian crisis that is pushing the enclave to the brink of famine.
“In exchange for the release of our hostages, Hamas demands the end of the war, the withdrawal of our forces from Gaza, the release of all the murderers and rapists,” Mr Netanyahu said in a statement late on Sunday.
“I reject outright the terms of surrender of the monsters of Hamas … I will not compromise on full Israeli security control of all territory west of the Jordan River.”
US President Joe Biden on Friday said he had spoken to Mr Netanyahu about possible solutions for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, suggesting one path could involve a non-militarised government.
On Monday, the EU joined Mr Biden in demanding Israel agrees to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Speaking ahead of talks with senior Israeli and Palestinian ministers, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told Israel it could not build peace and stability "only by military means".
"What we want to do is to build a two-state solution, so let's talk about it," he said.
In response to the Israeli leader’s comments, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Mr Netanyahu's refusal to end his military onslaught in Gaza “means there is no chance for the return of the [Israeli] captives".
Under a deal brokered in November by the US and its allies Qatar and Egypt, more than 100 of the hostages held in Gaza were freed in exchange for the release of 240 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Since then, Mr Netanyahu has faced mounting pressure to secure the release of 136 hostages who are thought to remain in captivity.
“Negotiating a new deal is proving much more difficult, with both the Israeli and Palestinian sides far apart on the details,” said one of the sources. “It does not help that Israel is divided over what’s next in Gaza and Hamas is fraught with tension between leaders who remain in Gaza and those in exile.”
The sources said the modified proposals speak of a three-month ceasefire during which Israel would embark on a phased withdrawal of its forces from Gaza.
The proposed pullout would take place in tandem with the return of Palestinians who fled their homes in northern and central Gaza and are now crammed in the southern part of the enclave, the sources said.
The plans include an exchange of detainees and hostages, with Hamas initially releasing about 40 women, children and elderly in return for an as yet unspecified number of Palestinians.
Hamas wants those to be released from Israeli prisons to include high-profile figures such as the popular Fatah stalwart Marwan Barghouti who is serving a life sentence for murder and a host of field commanders from Hamas’s military wing.
Those, according to the proposals, would be released in the last batch in exchange for Israeli military personnel held by Hamas.
The exchanges, which would also be phased, would include female Israeli soldiers – of which five are believed to be held – and the remains of Israeli soldiers or civilians killed on October 7 or in the ensuing war in Gaza since.
The proposals also envisage the deployment of a multinational force in the stretch of land running along the Egypt-Gaza border on the Palestinian side, known as the “Philadelphia corridor”.
This proposal counters suggestions recently made by Israel that it wants to bring the corridor under its control to halt what it claims to be the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.
Israel, for its part, is demanding that Hamas’s network of tunnels, which have for years been used to attack Israel, be demolished in their entirety, the sources said.
The proposals also envisage an interim Palestinian government to run Gaza at the end of the three-month ceasefire. Egypt and Hamas insist the militant group is made a part of this administration, whose tenure would end when presidential and legislative elections are held at some stage in the future.
Egypt will use the three-month ceasefire, to be guaranteed by all the mediating countries, to preside over a reconciliation between rival Palestinian factions, a vital but elusive goal before the formation of the interim government, the sources said.
Egypt, which borders both Israel and Gaza, has repeatedly tried and failed to reconcile Hamas and Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian faction that dominates the Palestinian Authority, which has limited autonomy over parts of the occupied West Bank.
Hamas has ruled Gaza since its operatives threw Fatah out of the territory in a brief civil war in 2007, two years after Israel unilaterally pulled out of the enclave it had occupied for 38 years.
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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