Recent victories by Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are likely to strengthen the negotiating position of the paramilitary group that has been fighting the army since April, but do not amount to a game changer in a war that neither side is likely to win, Sudanese analysts told The National.
The RSF on Tuesday announced the capture of Zalingi in Darfur, less than a week after it took Nyala, also in Darfur and Sudan's second-largest city with a population of about four million.
In both cases, the cities fell after the RSF defeated and captured the local army garrisons.
RSF fighters are also believed to be close to defeating the army in El Fasher in Darfur and El Obeid in the neighbouring Kordofan region.
“The question is how far can the Rapid Support Forces sustain its advances and whether the resentment felt by most Sudanese towards it can be overcome,” said military and security analyst Omar Arbab.
“They want to match the large swathes of territory still under army control in the centre, east and north of the country to improve their position in Jeddah,” he said, alluding to the venue of ceasefire negotiations sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the US.
War crimes accusations
The RSF's forerunner is a notorious militia called the Janjaweed that is accused of war crimes in Darfur during the civil war in the 2000s. In the conflict, it fought on the side of the government of now-ousted dictator Omar Al Bashir.
The International Criminal Court is investigating a new set of crimes allegedly committed by the RSF and allied militias in the summer when hundreds from the ethnic African Masalit tribe were killed and thousands forced to flee their homes in Darfur and take refuge in Chad.
In Khartoum, RSF fighters are accused of widespread looting, evicting civilians from their homes, and sexual assault. They are also accused of the unlawful detention of hundreds of civilians.
“The paramilitary enjoys the support of powerful Arab tribes in Darfur, giving it a level of popular acceptance that can help its drive to expand its control there,” according to Osman Al Mirghany, a prominent Sudanese analyst and editor of the Khartoum daily Al Tayar.
However, he explained, the deep opposition felt by heavily armed African tribes towards the RSF could be a major stumbling block for the paramilitary to seize the entire Darfur region, which is the size of France and borders Chad, Libya, South Sudan and the Central African Republic.
An RSF-controlled Darfur would also tempt foreign rebel groups already in the region – mostly from Chad and Central African Republic – to increase their presence, undermining security and stability and posing a challenge to the RSF's authority, according to Mr Al Mirghany.
Deadlock in Khartoum drives RSF shift to Darfur
Neither side has been able to gain an edge over its rival in Khartoum, while RSF fighters control most districts, the army uses heavy artillery and air strikes to pummel the paramilitary's positions.
“The shift to Darfur to take territory may in part be attributed to the RSF's failure to break the stalemate in Khartoum, where it has suffered heavy casualties at the hands of the army,” said Mr Al Mirghany.
The army has so far been unable to dislodge RSF fighters from their positions deep in the capital's residential districts.
“The crude firepower used by the army has failed to change the situation on the ground in Khartoum because this tactic is not effective in urban warfare,” said Wael Mohammed El Hassan, another Sudanese analyst. “That, and the loss of several of its Khartoum bases, has cost the army its prestige.”
The war in Sudan broke out over differences between army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo, his one-time ally and deputy in Sudan's ruling military council, over the implementation of a democratic transition plan.
Their dispute escalated into an armed struggle for military and political supremacy that has displaced about six million of Sudan's estimated 48 million population, killed thousands and destroyed much of the infrastructure in the vast and impoverished Afro-Arab nation.
It has also created uncertainty over the democratic transition Sudan embarked upon after Al Bashir's regime was toppled in 2019 after about 30 years in power.
Mediation by Saudi Arabia and the US produced a series of ceasefire agreements that all collapsed. The process was suspended this summer but negotiations resumed last week in Jeddah.
The analysts said the renewed talks were likely to produce a deal within days on a temporary truce that would allow humanitarian aid to reach the millions of Sudanese affected by the war.
The next phase, they said, would deal with resolving the differences between the two sides over the assimilation of the RSF into the armed forces, something that Gen Dagalo has long resisted and Gen Al Burhan insisted on.
There has been no word from the Saudi or US negotiators on the progress of the talks.
