The Middle East and North Africa is one of the most water-scarce regions of the world. Already plagued by a lack of freshwater resources, it also faces climate change, population growth and poor management, which threaten to affect the lives of millions.
The National’s correspondents across the region spoke to the people most affected to understand the extent of the issue and where hope for change may lie.
On the shores of the Nile, near where the river meets its end from the depths of Africa to the coast of the Mediterranean, is a 15th-century fort at risk of being lost to the water forever.
Located in the coastal town of Rosetta, on the north-western edge of Egypt’s Nile Delta, it may take years or even decades for the fort built during the reign of the Mamluk Sultan Qaitbay to join the many other structures around it that were swallowed by the sea.
But the danger is real and, for now, only electrical pumps working round-the-clock to keep seawater out of Fort Julien's grounds are protecting it from being overcome by the depths.
Should the pumps break down or suffer a power cut, the fort is almost instantly inundated with knee-deep water seeping into the lower sections of the fort that once stood on the highest ground in the surrounding area.
Yet the pumps can do little to stop areas of the fort walls from going mouldy from sustained wetness or some of the more vulnerable walls showing large water stains.
Buildings lost to the river
“Homes have disappeared. An old lighthouse, too, and a mosque,” lamented Khamees Al Qut, a 58-year-old father of five, who lives in the dusty and ramshackle village of Izbat Burj Rasheed.
The village, which sits close to both the Nile and the sea on the outskirts of Rosetta — also known as Rasheed — is where most of the damage from shoreline erosion can be found.
“You can see some of the buildings the sea swallowed if you are in a boat out there,” he said, pointing to the sea. Large buoys have been placed in the water to warn fishing vessels against sailing too close to sunken buildings whose tops are close to the surface.
For the fort to be overcome by water would be an immense loss to world heritage.
It is partially built with stones hauled from nearby temples and other structures dating back to the ancient Egyptian and Ptolemaic eras, a practice not uncommon in post-Pharaonic Egypt.
The stones included the world famous and tablet-like Rosetta Stone, whose identical texts in Demotic, Greek and hieroglyphics made it possible to decipher hieroglyphics, the language spoken in ancient Egypt’s royal palaces and temples, and establish the science of Egyptology.
Construction of Aswan High Dam exacerbates soil erosion in the Nile Delta
An economically prosperous town that’s a 40-minute drive away from Alexandria, Rosetta has the unenviable distinction of being one of the world’s most affected spots by global warming.
It is also a place whose global warming woes have been deepened by the construction more than a half century ago on the Nile of the Aswan High Dam in southern Egypt and before it the nearby Aswan reservoir in 1902.
The Soviet-built dam has, since its completion in 1970, regulated the river’s flow downstream and spared Egypt the destruction caused by flooding. It has significantly increased farmland, helping to feed the country’s rapidly growing population that stands at about 105 million.
But along with these key benefits, the dam also denied the Nile Delta the wealth of sediment that has, since time immemorial, renewed the soil of the nation’s breadbasket in the Nile valley and Delta. In the case of Rosetta, the reduction in the sediment accelerated the shoreline erosion caused by the advancing seawater. That coincided with the Nile also falling victim to climate change.
“The Nile has been affected by climate change in two extremes: drought and flooding,” said Mohammed Mahmoud, director of the Middle East Institute’s climate and water programme.
“Drought conditions have caused less water to be generated from the headwaters of the Blue and White Niles because of less precipitation and snowpack on the [Ethiopian] highlands. In addition, sea level rise in the Mediterranean has caused seawater to continue encroaching into the Nile Delta in Egypt, putting at risk residential areas and the primary source of Egypt’s agricultural output (the coastal Nile Delta),” he said.
Today, the telltale signs of a place in distress are difficult to miss in Rosetta and its immediate vicinity.
Row after row of foreboding concrete barriers are placed close to the shore at the point where the river meets the Mediterranean. Installed in the 1980s and 1990s, their function is to stop, or at least slow, the process of coastal erosion as a result of the advancing sea.
A large swathe of coastal land sits barren, seemingly no longer fit for farming because of the encroaching sea salt. An isolated army outpost at the tip of the coast is evidence of Egypt’s efforts to combat the use of its Mediterranean shores by illegal migrants seeking to cross to Europe.
Worries for the stability of farmlands
A study published last August in Egypt’s Alexandria Engineering Journal showed the Rosetta shoreline retreated by 4.4km at its eastern side and 5.8km at the western side between 1900 and 1991.
The study said the construction of Aswan High Dam and the reservoir led to a dramatic fall in the amount of sediment reaching the Nile Delta; from more than 120 million tonnes per year to almost zero today.
It also warned that, without additional protection, the Rosetta promontory would recede at an even faster rate, taking out some of the most fertile farmlands in mostly desert Egypt.
The loss of farmlands in the Delta can only deepen alarm in Egypt, which is already concerned that a massive hydroelectric dam being built by Ethiopia on the Nile could reduce its share of the river’s water. That, it claims, would wipe out hundreds of thousands of agricultural jobs and disrupt the nation’s delicate food balance.
Already importing 50 per cent of what its rapidly growing population eats, Egypt could suffer the loss of $51 billion worth of agricultural GDP if its water share is cut, according to a 2021 study published in the periodical Environmental Research Letters.
It would also add 11 per cent to its unemployment rate — officially 7 per cent now — and an overall GDP reduction by 8 per cent, according to the study.
However, the threat posed to Rosetta by coast erosion and the possible cut in Egypt’s share of the Nile water — on which the nation depends for almost all its freshwater needs — do little to conceal the prosperity and liveliness of the town of 60,000.
On one recent afternoon, the town’s colourful outdoor food market was packed with shoppers, snapping up goods sold at half what they cost in Cairo, about 250km to south-east. Fish farms dot the stretch of the Nile snaking through the city. On the east bank stand high-rise residential buildings. The seafront boulevard is peppered with slender date palms and marinas for Nile ferries.
Dry docks a short distance away from the town centre are working at near capacity building luxury yachts for the use of holidaymakers at Egypt’s popular Red Sea resorts.
Under the watchful eye of the soldiers manning the walls of their coastal outpost, some dozen men could be seen quietly angling while seated on top of the line of concrete barriers running parallel to the shore. Some of them travel 60km from Alexandria to fish in Rosetta, which enjoys a reputation for the richness of its fish at the Nile-Mediterranean confluence point.
“The sea is choppy today and the wind is too strong” said angler Mahmoud Baha, a 37-year-old father of two, who makes a living as an interior decorator.
“I am going to try to see what I can catch in the water between the barriers where the fish may be hiding.”
More from our water scarcity series:
'Jurassic%20World%20Dominion'
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Quick%20facts
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Kalra's feat
- Becomes fifth batsman to score century in U19 final
- Becomes second Indian to score century in U19 final after Unmukt Chand in 2012
- Scored 122 in youth Test on tour of England
- Bought by Delhi Daredevils for base price of two million Indian rupees (Dh115,000) in 2018 IPL auction
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
Directed by: Michael Fimognari
Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo
Two stars
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
Palestine and Israel - live updates
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Stuttgart v Cologne (Kick-off 10.30pm UAE)
Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)
Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (5.30pm)
Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
RESULTS
5pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Purebred Arabian Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Cup Conditions (PA) Dh 200,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Cup Listed (TB) Dh 380,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Boerhan, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
6.30pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Group 3 (PA) Dh 500,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Sheikh Sultan bin Zayed Al Nahyan National Day Jewel Crown Group 1 (PA) Dh 5,000,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Messi, Pat Dobbs, Timo Keersmaekers
7.30pm: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan Racing Festival Handicap (PA) Dh 150,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 100,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alareeq, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Ordinary Virtues: Moral Order in a Divided World by Michael Ignatieff
Harvard University Press
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Australia tour of Pakistan
March 4-8: First Test, Rawalpindi
March 12-16: Second Test, Karachi
March 21-25: Third Test, Lahore
March 29: First ODI, Rawalpindi
March 31: Second ODI, Rawalpindi
April 2: Third ODI, Rawalpindi
April 5: T20I, Rawalpindi
Company%20profile
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Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan