The deal struck in Sudan to reinstate the prime minister following a military takeover is imperfect, but has saved the country from sliding into civil strife, the UN envoy to Sudan said on Friday.
Special Envoy Volker Perthes was speaking of the agreement between Sudan's military leaders and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who was deposed and put under house arrest last month, leading to international outcry.
We have a situation now where we at least have an important step towards the restoration of the constitutional order
UN Special Envoy Volker Perthes
The military takeover threatened to thwart the process of a democratic transition that the country had embarked on since the removal of longtime president Omar Al Bashir.
The deal, signed on Sunday, was seen as the biggest concession made by the country's chief military leader, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, since the October 25 events.
However, the country's pro-democracy groups have dismissed it as illegitimate and accused Mr Hamdok of allowing himself to serve as a fig leaf for continued military rule.
“The agreement of course is not perfect,” Mr Perthes told the Associated Press. “But it is better than not having an agreement and continuing on a path where the military in the end will be the sole ruler."
Both signatories felt compelled to make “bitter concessions” to spare the country the risk of more violence, chaos and international isolation, he said.
“It would not have been possible to exclude a scenario which would have brought Sudan to something close to what we have seen in Yemen, Libya or Syria,” Mr Perthes said. He spoke to the AP via videoconference from Khartoum.
Sudan has been struggling with its transition to a democratic government since the military overthrow of Al Bashir in 2019, following a mass uprising against three decades of his rule.
The deal that Mr Hamdok signed with the military envisions an independent Cabinet of technocrats led by the prime minister until new elections are held. The government will still remain under military oversight, although Mr Hamdok claims he will have the power to appoint ministers.
The deal also stipulates all political detainees arrested following the military takeover be released. So far, several ministers and politicians have been freed. The number of those still in detention remains unknown.
“We have a situation now where we at least have an important step towards the restoration of the constitutional order,” said Mr Perthes.
Since the takeover, protesters have repeatedly taken to the streets in some of the largest demonstrations in recent years. Sudanese security forces have cracked down on the rallies and killed more than 40 protesters so far, according to activist groups.
Further measures need to be taken to prove the viability of the deal, said Mr Perthes, including the release of all detainees, the cessation of the use of violence against protesters and Mr Hamdok's full freedom to choose his Cabinet members.
On Friday, hundreds rallied in Khartoum and other Sudanese provinces to demand a fully civilian government and protest the deal for the second straight day. It came after thousands protested on Thursday.
One of the marches was led by Siddiq Al Mahdi, a leader of Sudan's prominent Umma Party, which has split with other pro-democratic groups over the deal to reinstate Mr Hamdok.
He said protesters must remain steadfast in their calls for the generals to surrender power. Mr Al Mahdi was among those who were arrested during the military takeover and was let go in recent days.
He refused the idea of further negotiations.
“As things currently stand, there is no opportunity for things to move forward,” he said.
Abdul Jabar Qahraman was meeting supporters in his campaign office in the southern Afghan province of Helmand when a bomb hidden under a sofa exploded on Wednesday.
The blast in the provincial capital Lashkar Gah killed the Afghan election candidate and at least another three people, Interior Minister Wais Ahmad Barmak told reporters. Another three were wounded, while three suspects were detained, he said.
The Taliban – which controls much of Helmand and has vowed to disrupt the October 20 parliamentary elections – claimed responsibility for the attack.
Mr Qahraman was at least the 10th candidate killed so far during the campaign season, and the second from Lashkar Gah this month. Another candidate, Saleh Mohammad Asikzai, was among eight people killed in a suicide attack last week. Most of the slain candidates were murdered in targeted assassinations, including Avtar Singh Khalsa, the first Afghan Sikh to run for the lower house of the parliament.
The same week the Taliban warned candidates to withdraw from the elections. On Wednesday the group issued fresh warnings, calling on educational workers to stop schools from being used as polling centres.
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Analysis
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
