Iran is one of a handful of countries to make clear they are not shutting the door on the government being formed by the Taliban.
It comes amid global fears over the future of Afghanistan under the militants, underlined by the chaotic removal of diplomats and at-risk Afghans from Kabul airport.
While other countries are closing embassies and reassessing relations, Iran, along with Russia, China and Pakistan, said it would maintain its diplomatic presence in Afghanistan. Iran's embassy in Kabul and its consulate in Herat, on its eastern border, remain “fully open and operational”, Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said.
Iran’s response to the swift fall of President Ashraf Ghani's western-backed government and the Taliban takeover is not a surprise, said Sanam Vakil, a senior research fellow at Chatham House.
“Tehran has been preparing for the reality of the Taliban with pragmatism by negotiating with the group to protect its interests, its border, its economic interests that have been important to combat sanctions pressure and to protect the targeting of Shia groups," Ms Vakil told The National.
This pragmatism should not be misread, Ms Vakil said. There is no love lost between Iran and the Taliban. In fact, most Iranians fear the Taliban's radicalism.
In 1998, two years after seizing power for the first time, the Taliban killed 11 diplomats and a journalist in Tehran's mission in Mazar-i-Sharif. Iran responded by moving 10,000 troops to the Afghan border in addition to the 70,000 already there.
Iran's support for the 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan is said to have been a key element in the toppling of the Taliban regime and to have ushered in the presidency of Hamid Karzai. Iran supported the training of the Afghan army. One prominent Afghan leader told the RAND think tank that "if it weren’t for Iran, our western friends would not be able to come today so easily and tell us about all the things they have done for us”.
The Iranian stance was partly to ensure its security and partly to support an initiative by then president Mohammad Khatami to open dialogue with the West. It also coincided with the US and Iran's shared interest in preventing narcotics production, border insecurity and the flow of refugees from Afghanistan. But this changed with US president George W Bush's rejection of these overtures, in which he branded Iran part of an "axis of evil", and the combative, anti-west policies adopted by Mr Khatami's successor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Afshon Ostovar, associate chairman for the research department of national security affairs at The Naval Postgraduate School in California, said Iran had pursued a "multifaceted strategy" which included both working with the post-2001 Afghan government and helping the Taliban insurgency against US forces.
"Today, the Taliban and Iran have a good working relationship. They're not partners or allies, but they did have a shared interest regarding ending the US military presence in Afghanistan,” Mr Ostovar told The National.
Just a few weeks prior to the Taliban takeover, Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi, made it clear that Tehran expected the foreign, meaning American, presence in the region to end. He called the US decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan “an opportunity to restore life, security, and lasting peace in that country”.
Iran’s outgoing foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, even hosted the Taliban in Tehran in July this year for a meeting with envoys of the US-backed Kabul government.
But while Iran wants the US out of Afghanistan, it is also keen that its eastern neighbour remains stable.
“Iran wants to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a pillar of US influence in the region," Mr Ostovar said.
"Beyond that, Iran would of course like a measure of security and stability in Afghanistan so that trade can continue unimpeded, and a refugee crisis be avoided. Those goals are currently contradictory, and how Iran's approach to Afghanistan might evolve with the transition to Taliban rule is yet to be seen.”
For now, Tehran seems to be "cautiously optimistic", he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
