With rumours of Apple's foldable iPhone allegedly hardening into certainty this year, one question is gaining traction: how much will it cost?
Chatter suggests the device to be in the $2,000 range, in line with Samsung Electronics' Fold, which would be a relief, given that there are several factors that could threaten to raise the costs of the most important consumer electronics device.
The number of smartphone shipments climbed 4 per cent annually in the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to a full-year growth of 2 per cent, data from research firm Omdia shows.
But while the global smartphone market indeed ended last year on a steadier footing, rising cost pressures are starting to cap growth, said Sanyam Chaurasia, a principal analyst at Omdia.
'Costly' strategy
London-based Omdia, formerly known as Canalys, points to three main trends this year that could lead to rising smartphone prices. One of them is supply tightness for DRAMs, the most commonly used chip; the restricted availability of certain types of this component, as well as its rising prices, are intensifying competition for supply.
Manufacturer strategies are also shifting from volume expansion to cost containment, owing to higher semiconductor costs and a slowing refresh cycle. They are also ensuring a streamlined access to components.
“Vendors are tightening configurations, aligning launches more closely with component availability … highlight how vendors are seeking scale to manage rising costs and remain competitive,” Mr Chaurasia said.
Even Carl Pei, the chief executive of Nothing Technology that makes smartphones with famous glyphs and is considered among the affordable tiers, conceded the challenges and confirmed they will be raising prices in 2026.
“The smartphone industry relied on a single, reliable assumption: components would inevitably get cheaper. While short-term volatility existed, the long-term downwards trend in memory and display costs allowed for annual spec bumps without price hikes,” he said.
“In 2026, that model has finally broken, driven by a sharp and unprecedented surge in memory costs.”
Advantage: premium players
London-based Nothing and Google's Pixel devices were among the top performers in 2025, posting year-on-year shipment surges of 31 per cent and 25 per cent respectively, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research.
Apple and Samsung had the biggest market shares with 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively, said the Hong Kong-based company, which also had full-year overall smartphone growth of 2 per cent.
As well, Counterpoint anticipates more chip shortages, increasing component prices and chipmakers that are prioritising artificial intelligence data centres already triggering smartphone price rises, leading Counterpoint downgrading 2026 shipment forecasts.
However, manufacturers focused on the premium segment with stronger supply chains such as Apple and Samsung are likely to stay resilient, it said.
Apple has also largely maintained its pricing, bucking rumours of across-the-board price increases; the iPhone 17's base price remains at $799.
However, “those heavily exposed to lower-price segments may feel the pressure”, said Kamal Singh, a research analyst at Counterpoint.
What else in store for 2026?
Apple's release of a foldable iPhone has been the subject of speculation for years. And with that in play, there has been further talk of Apple delaying the next base versions of the next iPhones – presumably the iPhone 18 – to 2027, to give more attention to the California-based company's Pro models and the foldable device. A second-generation iPhone Air is also expected.
Seoul-based Samsung, meanwhile, is said to be pushing the unveiling of its next Galaxy S devices to late February, due to strategic and streamlining reasons. A second iteration of its Galaxy Edge has also been reportedly scrapped, which would leave the door open for Apple to lead in the ultra-thin phones segment.
Details are sparse, and both Apple and Samsung do not comment on speculation.
Arguably the most interesting launch to look out for in 2026 is OpenAI's first device, which Axios reported would be out in the second half of 2026. OpenAI boss Sam Altman said it would be more “peaceful” than a smartphone.
The purported screenless device, first teased by after the purchase of former Apple design guru Jony Ive's company in May, is expected to fully harness the generative AI expertise of OpenAI. It is unclear if it would be a wearable, audio-centric device or any other bigger gadget.
“Smart move if OpenAI launches an audio-focused wearable. It’s a practical way to bypass Apple/Google as the consumer entry point and build a direct 'always-on' contact layer with users,” said Linda Sui, founder and principal analyst of California-based Smart Analytics Global.
“A voice-first form factor with contextual recognition fits today’s AI reality, which is still heavily skewed towards work and productivity, and would likely act as a companion to PCs and smartphones, not a replacement,” she said.
Still, that device – or any other for that matter – should make sense and not feel repetitive of tech already out in the market.
“AI hardware is back, but expectations are higher after early gadget misfires,” analysts at marketing technology firm Asteris AI said.
“The real test – can it beat the smartphone on simplicity and usefulness? If it works, it could reshape how assistants become 'always available' without feeling intrusive.”
