UAE ready for Q-Day but quantum decryption crisis looms for others, expert says

Advances in quantum computers pose urgent challenges for encryption around the world

Advances from the likes of IBM will make quantum computing more accessible, which also may create cybersecurity issues

The UAE's recent approval of a national encryption policy puts the country on track to be a quantum-safe economy, and an expert says other nations should take similar measures.

UAE officials announced the country's encryption plans in late November.

“The step aims to support a safer and more technologically prepared future amid the rapid advancements in quantum computing,” a news release from state news agency Wam read.

IBM has said that progress made with its Quantum Loon chip means quantum computing might be readily available by 2030.

Unlike conventional computers that process data in bits and have a binary value of zero or one, quantum computers can process digits simultaneously using a two-state unit called a qubit.

Recent advances mean that previously time-consuming data crunching for research and problem-solving can now be done in a fraction of the time, potentially yielding breakthroughs in scientific, medical and other research.

But experts warn there is also the potential for powerful quantum computers to fall into the wrong hands and be used for nefarious purposes, such as to crack the security passwords that billions of individuals use every day, resulting in a cataclysmic wave of financial crimes.

That worst-case scenario has gained the attention of cybersecurity experts who have called it “Q-Day”.

“So much encryption is effectively at risk of being broken,” said Mohammed Aboul-Magd, vice president of product at SandboxAQ's cybersecurity group.

SandboxAQ's Mohammed Aboul-Magd says other countries should act to minimise problems posed by quantum computers' decryption capabilities. Photo: SandboxAQ

Mr Aboul-Magd said that with so many quantum advancements on the horizon, the time of the UAE's national encryption policy announcement could not be better.

“It's part of really small group of countries that are treating this in a proactive way, and that's so critical right now,” he said. Forthcoming products such as IBM's Quantum Loon, which the company says is likely to become available by 2029, show that time is of the essence in ensuring the stability of encryption systems around the world, Mr Aboul-Magd added.

He said SandboxAQ is working with several Gulf countries and private-sector organisations to take inventories of all the encryption technologies they use, perform risk assessments on “mission critical services” and implement “crypto agility practices” to ensure software and tools are being built that can withstand the challenges presented by quantum technology.

Mr Aboul-Magd said cryptographers will play an increasingly important role in safeguarding data.

“They're coming up with the new algorithms that will be safe from quantum computers,” he said, saying that Sandbox AQ recently wrote two quantum-safe algorithms.

A shortage of cryptography talent might affect the private sector's efforts to stay one step ahead of a worst-case quantum scenario, but Mr Aboul-Magd said that in recent months, services have become readily available that minimise the need to find and hire cryptographers.

“There's a lot of platforms, ours included, that help organisations become post-quantum computer safe,” he said.

Harvest now, decrypt later

Despite all the work to minimise potential collateral damage from quantum computing, Mr Aboul-Magd said bad technology actors around the world are making the most of governments and private companies that might be unprepared.

In the lead-up to the proliferation of quantum technology, nefarious groups are taking a “harvest now but decrypt later” approach, in which cyber criminals are finding ways to obtain encrypted data with the hope of acquiring quantum technology to decrypt it in the near future.

“This is absolutely a today problem,” Mr Aboul-Magd said, pointing out that countries such as the UAE pushing hard for solidifying national encryption plans are at the “forefront”.

“It's really amazing to see,” he said.