The world is on track to warm by as much as 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century unless drastic action is taken to change course, a UN report has warned.
The Emissions Gap Report 2023 underlined how, "like a broken record", the world had once again failed to slash warming emissions, with temperatures hitting new highs this year.
Emissions must fall by 28 per cent to 42 per cent to limit warming to 2°C and 1.5°C through a “relentless” transformation, it said.
Scientists have also warned if warming of this magnitude continues, billions of people could be affected by heat and humidity that severely damages their health.
The report comes days before Cop28 in Dubai, which will add further pressure on leaders to act when it starts on November 30.
All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity
Antonio Guterres,
UN Secretary General
"The report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who also called for leaders to act at Cop28.
"A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives and broken records. All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity.
"Renewables have never been cheaper and more accessible."
The report examines the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or climate action plans, that countries submit to the UN to tackle the crisis. as set out under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
As of September 25, nine countries had submitted new or updated NDCs since Cop27 last year, bringing the total number of updated NDCs to 149.
But the report outlined how the world remains way off track in its pledges to meet the goals of the Paris deal, where countries agreed to "pursue efforts" to limit warming to 1.5°C.
It warned even in the "most optimistic scenario", the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was only “14 per cent”.
"Humanity is breaking all the wrong records when it comes to climate change," said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, which issued the report on Monday.
“The world must change track, or we will be saying the same thing next year and the year after and the year after, like a broken record."
The report said the world needed to cut predicted 2030 emissions by 28 per cent to get on track to hit the 2°C goal and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C goal. It said if all conditional NDCs and long-term net-zero pledges were met, limiting the temperature rise to 2°C would be possible.
“However, net-zero pledges are not currently considered credible: none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets,” the UNEP said. "Even in the most optimistic scenario, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14 per cent."
The study also comes in the same year temperature records were broken and extreme weather events became more common.
According to the UN, at least 86 days before October this year were recorded with temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The hottest September was recorded, with global average temperatures of 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. Global greenhouse gas emissions also continue to rise.
"There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather," said Ms Andersen.
"We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient ambition and not enough action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance."
Threat to human life
The 1.5°C goal is still seen as crucial in preventing the worst impacts of climate change.
The world has already warmed by more than 1°C, with scientists believing that going beyond the 1.5°C threshold would pose a serious threat to civilisation.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President-designate and Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, has called the 1.5°C goal the "North star" that will guide Cop28, and the first assessment of how countries are doing under the Paris deal will be made.
Known as the "global stocktake", it is also expected to try to chart a way out of the crisis and will help inform the next rounds of NDCs expected in 2025 to drive further action.
"Cop28 is a critical moment for addressing this," Tom Evans, a climate expert at the E3G think tank, told The National.
He said negotiations in Dubai could help leaders agree on measures to ensure much faster emissions reductions.
"New global goals to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, matched with a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, are critical steps for closing the emissions gap," he said.
The report said some progress had been made since the Paris deal was signed in 2015, when emissions in 2030 projected to increase by 16 per cent. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent.
It also calls for all countries to focus on the energy transition; and warns new oil, coal and gas "would emit over 3.5 times to the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5°C and almost the entire budget available for 2°C”.
It says wealthier countries responsible for more emissions have a larger role to play.
Climate finance, too, needs to be scaled up, as delaying cutting emissions will increase future reliance on the removal of carbon dioxide from methods such as afforestation, reforestation and forest management, and to technology such as direct air carbon capture and storage.
The report, however, warned such technology might not be scaled up in time to achieve the results it hopes to yield.
"Leaders can’t kick the can any further. We’re out of road," said Mr Guterres. "Cop28 must set us up for dramatic climate action – now."
The Secretary General said he was travelling to Chile and Antarctica to "see for myself" the impact of the climate crisis.
"Scorching temperatures mean Antarctic ice is melting ever faster, with deadly consequences for people around the world," he said.
"I will take my experiences to Cop, where I will call for action that matches the scale of the crisis."
Expo City Dubai as Cop28 venue - in pictures
'I Want You Back'
Director:Jason Orley
Stars:Jenny Slate, Charlie Day
Rating:4/5
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
The Case For Trump
By Victor Davis Hanson
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
The specs: 2018 Jaguar E-Pace First Edition
Price, base / as tested: Dh186,480 / Dh252,735
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 246hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 365Nm @ 1,200rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
The specs: 2018 Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk
Price, base: Dh399,999
Engine: Supercharged 6.2-litre V8
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 707hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 875Nm @ 4,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 16.8L / 100km (estimate)
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
THE%20SPECS
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Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ten10 Cricket League
Venue and schedule Sharjah Cricket Stadium, December 14 to 17
Teams
Maratha Arabians Leading player: Virender Sehwag; Top picks: Mohammed Amir, Imad Wasim; UAE players: Shaiman Anwar, Zahoor Khan
Bengal Lions Leading player: Sarfraz Ahmed; Top picks: Sunil Narine, Mustafizur Rahman; UAE players: Mohammed Naveed, Rameez Shahzad
Kerala Kings Leading player: Eoin Morgan; Top picks: Kieron Pollard, Sohail Tanvir; UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Imran Haider
Pakhtoons Leading player: Shahid Afridi; Top picks: Fakhar Zaman, Tamim Iqbal; UAE players: Amjad Javed, Saqlain Haider
Punjabi Legends Leading player: Shoaib Malik; Top picks: Hasan Ali, Chris Jordan; UAE players: Ghulam Shabber, Shareef Asadullah
Team Sri Lanka Cricket Will be made up of Colombo players who won island’s domestic limited-overs competition
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
More from UAE Human Development Report:
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.