Cop28 runs until December 12 at Expo City Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
Cop28 runs until December 12 at Expo City Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
Cop28 runs until December 12 at Expo City Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
Cop28 runs until December 12 at Expo City Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National

Cop28 so far: What's happened at the UN climate conference and what to expect next?


John Dennehy
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Live updates: Follow the latest news on Cop28

Cop28 has hit the pause button and Thursday is an official rest day – but there's still plenty more to come.

The conference started strongly with a historic loss and damage deal agreed to, leading to optimism all over the world that breakthroughs could be made at Dubai's Expo City.

So what has happened so far and what can we expect when the summit resumes on Friday?

Major announcements and billions of dollars in finance

Eleven pledges and declarations on vital areas such as food, peace and recovery, renewable energy and efficiency, methane and decarbonising heavy emitting industries dominated the first few days. The food declaration, for example, was signed by more than 100 countries and seeks to put climate at the heart of agriculture.

Scaling up climate finance is also critical in tackling climate change, with the Cop presidency on Wednesday stating more than $80 billion has been mobilised so far, including funds pledged for loss and damage.

Respecting the science and answering sceptics

Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President, on Monday said he and the presidency “respect the science” and understand the urgent need for climate action.

He reiterated the long-standing position that the “north star” of the presidency was keeping 1.5ºC within reach.

Mariam Al Mheiri, Minister of Climate Change and the Environment, also said the UAE was answering its sceptics at Cop28 while changing international perceptions about what the country stands for.

Climate talks take centre stage

Negotiators are now working long into the night, particularly on the global stocktake. This will assess how the world is doing in its goal – agreed to in Paris in 2015 – of keeping global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Several iterations have been issued so far. It is a basic text and subject to change but it did leave open several options on the future of fossil fuels.

“There are areas where a lot of the text has been agreed but there are other negotiations that are a little bit more difficult,” said Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, Samoa’s Minister of Natural Resources, Environment and Lands.

“Overall I’d say not too bad.”

Fossil fuels: phase out, phase down and what unabated means

One of the key issues at this summit is the future of fossil fuels, the primary driver of global emissions.

The Cop28 presidency has called on parties to come forward with language on fossil fuels.

Dr Al Jaber on Monday said the “phase down” and “phase out” of fossil fuels was “inevitable” – the farthest he has gone so far in addressing this.

More than 100 countries, including the US and the EU, have already said they want to see a phase out of fossil fuels. Hard talks lie ahead as countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia have been historically resistant to such language.

Unabated – meaning fossil fuels used without carbon capture technologies – also keeps cropping up, but many experts say carbon capture has yet to be proven at scale.

  • Cop27 President Sameh Shoukry, left, hands over the gavel to Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber at the UN climate conference's opening ceremony. AFP
    Cop27 President Sameh Shoukry, left, hands over the gavel to Cop28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber at the UN climate conference's opening ceremony. AFP
  • Dr Sultan Al Jaber speaks during the opening session at Expo City Dubai. AP
    Dr Sultan Al Jaber speaks during the opening session at Expo City Dubai. AP
  • King Charles III visiting Heriot-Watt University Dubai Campus during the Cop28 summit. PA
    King Charles III visiting Heriot-Watt University Dubai Campus during the Cop28 summit. PA
  • Sameh Shoukry, Cop27 President, centre, attends the opening session. AP
    Sameh Shoukry, Cop27 President, centre, attends the opening session. AP
  • US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry attends the Cop28 opening session. Reuters
    US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry attends the Cop28 opening session. Reuters
  • Raquel Sousa Chaves from Brazil at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Raquel Sousa Chaves from Brazil at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Visitors on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Visitors on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Recyclable wind turbines on show on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Recyclable wind turbines on show on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • A plant-based food cafe at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    A plant-based food cafe at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Vegan activists on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Vegan activists on the first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Pollution Pods, an installation by British artist Michael Pinsky, where Cop28 visitors can safely experience the air pollution in Beijing and other cities. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Pollution Pods, an installation by British artist Michael Pinsky, where Cop28 visitors can safely experience the air pollution in Beijing and other cities. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Indigenous leaders and climate campaigners are among the attendees at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Indigenous leaders and climate campaigners are among the attendees at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Fair-trade vegan chocolate being handed out at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Fair-trade vegan chocolate being handed out at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Day one at Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Day one at Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28, Dubai Expo City. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28, Dubai Expo City. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • The first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    The first day of Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • The first day of Cop 28 at Expo City, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    The first day of Cop 28 at Expo City, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • National flags on display at the UN climate summit. AP
    National flags on display at the UN climate summit. AP
  • Delegates arriving for the opening of Cop28. Pawan Singh / The National
    Delegates arriving for the opening of Cop28. Pawan Singh / The National
  • More than 70,000 delegates, including world leaders, climate scientists, business leaders and young people, are expected to attend. Pawan Singh / The National
    More than 70,000 delegates, including world leaders, climate scientists, business leaders and young people, are expected to attend. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Delegates will engage in a stock take to see how pledges to limit global warming are being implemented. Pawan Singh / The National
    Delegates will engage in a stock take to see how pledges to limit global warming are being implemented. Pawan Singh / The National
  • The summit aims to keep on track efforts to restrict global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Pawan Singh / The National
    The summit aims to keep on track efforts to restrict global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Pawan Singh / The National
  • Hora – The Unity Dance artwork, by Marius Diaconu, on display at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Hora – The Unity Dance artwork, by Marius Diaconu, on display at Cop28. Chris Whiteoak / The National
  • Cop28 runs until December 12. Chris Whiteoak / The National
    Cop28 runs until December 12. Chris Whiteoak / The National

How is the summit going?

“It’s a story of the glass being both half full and half empty,” said Tim Benton, research director at Chatham House, where he leads the environment and society centre. “Attendees are also simultaneously hopeful and depressed.”

Prof Benton said the loss and damage win, scaling up renewables and the declarations were reason to hope but many areas are “mired in tensions, with little progress towards what many hope will an ambitious final negotiated text”.

The second week of Cop28 will also see the presidency take a more active role in the process.

It will identify areas where work needs to be done, help parties find common ground and try to guide the talks to a successful outcome on Tuesday.

What kind of final decision can we expect?

Cops tend to feature what is known as a cover decision – typically an announcement made at the end that outlines what has been achieved. Last year’s included an agreement to establish a loss and damage fund.

This year, we know parties are working on the stocktake text. It is seen as increasingly likely that this will be the main outcome from Cop28. Although a separate cover decision cannot be ruled out at this stage. Cop28 might also see a separate political declaration on the stocktake but this is unconfirmed.

“The global stocktake is the centrepiece of the Cop outcome and will carry the most politically important messages to the world,” said Tom Evans, climate change expert at think tank E3G.

“At Cop27 in Egypt and before that at Cop26 in Glasgow, those were the so-called ‘cover texts’ – and this year at Cop28, it looks like the global stocktake decision is essentially serving that function.”

Will Cop28 go into an extra day?

Cop28 is due to finish on December 12, but Cops are notorious for overshooting this deadline. Cop27 in Sharm El Sheikh, for example, was expected to finish on a Friday but did not end until early on Sunday.

It is difficult to assess now if Cop28 will take this trajectory but it should become clearer by early next week.

“Next week will be long, hard and fractious,” said Prof Benton. “But there remains a lot to play for.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

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Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

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Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.

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Updated: December 08, 2023, 4:29 AM