The area of Europe affected by wildfires could triple as a result of climate change, new research suggests.
Back-to-back heatwaves and an early drought have created tinderbox conditions in western Europe since early July, leading to severe wildfires across France, Greece, Spain and Belgium in particular.
More than 20 people have been killed, including 14 in the Almeria wildfire in Spain and three Greek firefighters on the island of Crete.
Thousands of homes have been destroyed and more than 300,000 people have been evacuated, with even the UK dealing with more fires than ever following five heatwaves.
About 550,000 hectares had burnt across the EU by August 12, about two and a half times the 20-year average for this time of year, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.
A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research has mapped out how temperature increases resulting from climate change could lead to more wildfires.
In a low-emissions scenario in which temperatures rise to around 1.8°C above the pre-industrial average, researchers calculate roughly 39 per cent more land would be burnt per year by the end of the century compared to today’s average.
But in a high-emissions scenario where global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, it would be around 192 per cent.
“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said Maik Billing, researcher at the Potsdam Institute and lead author of the study published on Thursday in Global Change Biology.
“Our results indicate there could be widespread increases in burnt area even under comparatively low warming of around 1.8°C.
“But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6°C, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of western and central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires.”
The paper’s co-authors, the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, also model the effects of human action to prevent, detect and fight fires in a world with higher temperatures.
Continued improvements in fire management have the potential to reduce burnt area by 92 per cent in a 1.8°C future and by 72 per cent in a roughly 3.6°C future.
But the authors caution that the results could be optimistic about the efficacy of fire management in a much warmer climate.
Senckenberg scientist and study co-author Thomas Hickler said that if Europe increases investment in wildfire management, including training fire crews, proper equipment and good co-ordination, this could make a significant difference.
“But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down and we do not know yet where this point is,” he said.
“The recent record fires in France clearly show that we cannot simply extrapolate from the experiences of the past.”
Meanwhile, a major new report published today by the Mayor of London and London Councils reveals that extreme heat and the continued impact of climate change could cost the UK capital up to £36 billion a year by the 2050s unless further action is taken.
London broke temperature records in May, June and August and had entered its fifth official heatwave of the year by mid-August.
Lost productivity linked to high temperatures is estimated to cost London £577 million annually and to have accounted for almost 90 per cent of the estimated £1.5 billion cost of London’s three heatwaves in 2022.
