Time is running out to reduce the degradation of Earth's soil and, without urgent action, the forced migration of people as a result is estimated to soar, a new report said.
Warning that “soil degradation is a critical and often overlooked threat multiplier,” the Save Soil non-profit organisation highlighted that when agricultural productivity was hit, millions were forced to leave their homes, unable to bear the brunt of relentless droughts and floods.
Titled “The nexus of soil degradation, climate change and food insecurity: A looming global migration crisis," the report, released on Thursday, analyses data from organisations including the World Bank and the UNCCD (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification). The World Bank has warned that more than 216 million people could be displaced from their homes by 2050 due to climate change with the poorest regions the worst affected.
"When soil loses its vitality, communities lose their resilience to drought, crop yields plummet, and people are left with no choice but to move,” said Praveena Sridhar, chief technology officer of Save Soil, urging action to prevent the doubling of forced global migration by 2100 due to increased aridity and drought.
Invest in soil health
Ms Sridhar said investing in soil health was necessary to reduce the pressures driving global migration and also opened a path to tackle the impact of climate change and ensure food security. She said countries should frame policies to restore soil health, remove chemical fertilisers and pesticides and allow the soil to retain water and nutrients with regenerative agricultural practices.
Calling on governments and civil society to prioritise soil protection and restoration, she said, “This report underscores the urgent need to see healthy and living soil as the solution for the nexus of problems that humanity faces through mass migration, climate change, land degradation and food security.”
The Save Soil organisation has often launched global campaigns to raise awareness that protecting soil is essential to save the planet and tackle the climate crisis. The group supports more than 250,000 Indian farmers to implement soil revitalisation projects and hopes to place soil nutrition on the agenda of all governments.
Dangerous consequences
The United Nations has warned of a dangerous decline in food production over the next 25 years, with the Earth’s topsoil at risk by 2050.
"Our report reveals that the foundation of stable communities is literally eroding beneath our feet," the study said. It pointed out that the severe consequences of soil degradation were already evident, with crop production expected to decline by 22 per cent by 2040 in sub-Saharan Africa, with maize yields in some regions likely to drop by 50 per cent by 2050.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa region are among the most vulnerable. They have called on the international community to give priority to regions facing drought, water scarcity and rising temperatures that contribute to forced migration.
The impact will also be felt in Europe, with more land turning arid and dry, which will subsequently affect food production. The report emphasised that the impact of soil degradation and climate change on mass migration cannot be overlooked.
Sustainable land management practices that teach farmers not to over-till the land, and to use organic compost and plant trees to reduce erosion are vital for food security and to help communities to remain in their homes, the study said.
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
