Rising rates of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are incompatible with keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a Met Office study has warned.
Using measurements taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii stretching back to 1958, concentrations of the key greenhouse gas rose at their fastest annual levels in 2024, exceeding Met Office predictions for the year.
At Mauna Loa, a rise of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) was recorded, well above the predicted 2.84ppm from the Met Office. Satellite measurements also showed large increases worldwide.
The Met Office said the increase was down to record high emissions from fossil fuel burning, natural “sinks” such as tropical forests capturing less carbon, and wildfires.
The reduction in carbon absorbed by forests and the wildfires were driven by hot conditions linked to El Nino in the Pacific, which pushes up global temperatures, and climate change.
The Met Office, which has produced forecasts for carbon dioxide since 2016, predicts the rise from 2024 to 2025 will be less extreme than the increase recorded last year, at about 2.26ppm.
Global data suggests carbon dioxide emissions will reach 37.41 billion tonnes in 2024.
But even this slower rise will be too fast to stay on track for pathways laid out by the UN’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that aim for warming to remain below 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels with no or little overshoot, the Met Office warned.
The IPCC also predicts temperatures will overshoot 1.5°C temporarily for a few decades before returning below the threshold by the end of this century.
To remain on track, Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions must drop by around 43 per cent by 2030, according to estimates.
Effects of climate change on Middle East - in pictures
But they will require greater reliance on technology or approaches, such as planting more forests, that reduce the overall level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The figures came after Copernicus, EU's climate change monitoring service, recently revealed that Earth’s temperature remained 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average in 2024, representing the first calendar-long breach of the milestone on record.
It said the global temperature average of 15.10°C was 0.12°C above 2023's level, the previous warmest year. It was also 1.60°C higher than the temperature estimate for the pre-fossil fuel era, from 1850 to 1900.
Scientists said the data suggested it was now “very likely” the world would fail to reach its 2060 global warming targets.
Pursuing efforts to prevent the world warming by more than the 1.5°C limit is one of the key commitments of the global Paris treaty, which countries agreed to in 2015 in a bid to avert the most dangerous effects of climate change.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps heat and higher levels of the gas trap more warmth, pushing up global temperatures over time, which causes rising sea levels, more extreme droughts, storms, floods, harm to wildlife and critical natural systems.
If global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere needs to already be slowing to a rise of 1.8ppm a year this decade, before halting and starting to decline, according to IPCC calculations, the Met Office said.
But increases are averaging about 2.5ppm so far this decade, said the Met Office’s Prof Richard Betts, who leads the production of the forecast.
'Time is not on our side,' UN chief warns Cop29 - video
“Last week, it was confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with annual average temperatures higher than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time,” he said.
“While this does not represent a failure to achieve the Paris Agreement target, as that would require breaching warming 1.5°C over a longer period and we may see a slightly cooler year in 2025, the long-term warming trend will continue because carbon dioxide is still building up in the atmosphere.”
He said a switch from El Nino to La Nina – which creates cooler, wetter conditions, particularly in the tropics – would mean forests and other natural systems soak up more carbon than last year, temporarily slowing the rise in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
“However, stopping global warming needs the build-up of greenhouse gases in the air to come to a complete halt and then start to reduce,” he said. “Large, rapid emissions cuts could limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5°C – but this needs urgent action internationally."
A study from 2022 found that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere was 50 per cent higher than the pre-Industrial Revolution era, reaching levels not seen in more than four million years.
Worsening warming
According to the Carbon Brief, if warming exceeds 1.5°C beyond 2100 and peaks at 1.89°C, sea levels will rise by 20cm at more than 70 per cent of the Earth's coastlines.
If warming continues to rise, peaking at 2.69°C by 2100, the world would pass a catastrophic point of no return, with the loss of all ice sheets, sea level rises of several metres, extreme heatwaves occurring most years and the drying out of the Amazon rainforest.
Warming of 4°C would result in unprecedented heatwaves, severe drought and major flooding, creating millions of global climate refugees. Wide-scale adaptation to global sea rise would also be necessary.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Ways to control drones
Countries have been coming up with ways to restrict and monitor the use of non-commercial drones to keep them from trespassing on controlled areas such as airports.
"Drones vary in size and some can be as big as a small city car - so imagine the impact of one hitting an airplane. It's a huge risk, especially when commercial airliners are not designed to make or take sudden evasive manoeuvres like drones can" says Saj Ahmed, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research.
New measures have now been taken to monitor drone activity, Geo-fencing technology is one.
It's a method designed to prevent drones from drifting into banned areas. The technology uses GPS location signals to stop its machines flying close to airports and other restricted zones.
The European commission has recently announced a blueprint to make drone use in low-level airspace safe, secure and environmentally friendly. This process is called “U-Space” – it covers altitudes of up to 150 metres. It is also noteworthy that that UK Civil Aviation Authority recommends drones to be flown at no higher than 400ft. “U-Space” technology will be governed by a system similar to air traffic control management, which will be automated using tools like geo-fencing.
The UAE has drawn serious measures to ensure users register their devices under strict new laws. Authorities have urged that users must obtain approval in advance before flying the drones, non registered drone use in Dubai will result in a fine of up to twenty thousand dirhams under a new resolution approved by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, Crown Prince of Dubai.
Mr Ahmad suggest that "Hefty fines running into hundreds of thousands of dollars need to compensate for the cost of airport disruption and flight diversions to lengthy jail spells, confiscation of travel rights and use of drones for a lengthy period" must be enforced in order to reduce airport intrusion.
The Cockroach
(Vintage)
Ian McEwan
