While the United States may turn the clock back on efforts to promote climate change as Donald Trump takes the reins of the White House in January, it presents the Arabian Gulf with an opportunity for other power plays.
Mr Trump’s aim to increase domestic conventional forms of energy would change fossil fuel markets for the region, according to energy efficiency firm Taka Solutions in Dubai. “If Trump pushed forward with clean coal and natural gas, it would put more pressure on the region to get off of oil and find a more sustainable approach and industries to support economies here,” said Charles Blaschke, Taka’s founder and managing director.
Mr Trump’s platform has been geared towards increasing the country’s energy independence with a focus on natural resources. This includes reopening talks for the Keystone Pipeline spanning from Canada to Nebraska carrying over 800,000 barrels of oil per day as well as lifting moratoriums on energy production in federal areas. He said in his 100-day action plan that he would also focus on the coal industry while revoking “policies that impose unwarranted restrictions on new drilling technologies”.
But the major issue is Mr Trump’s claims that climate change was created by the Chinese. “We’re going to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement and stop all payments of the US tax dollars to UN global warming programs,” Mr Trump said on his website.
Said Claudio Palmieri, the chief executive of Dubai’s CLS Energy Consultants: “If Trump does what he says, that would mean that he would negate the United States participation in the Paris Agreement and support coal rather than renewables – and it would definitely impact the industry in the mid- to long-term,”
The change in administration is important on many fronts, said Anita Nouri, the business development director at Green Energy Solutions and Sustainability in Dubai. “The Trump administration, I feel, will have a negative impact,” she said. “It is critical for the clean energy momentum to continue and I feel that if the Trump administration rejects the actions of the Obama administration, it will be a step backward with global implications.”
Yet Ms Nouri believes that this will not derail the UAE’s ambitions to pursue a more diversified energy mix. “The UAE is taking bold moves to become carbon neutral and the initiatives that are being put in place to reduce carbon emissions and increase renewable energy targets are making an impact in the region as a whole.”
Further thoughts:
Frank Wouters, former director of Masdar Clean Energy and former chairman of Shams Power:
“The difficulty with Trump is nobody really knows what he will do. Campaign rhetoric does not always translate into policy. One should also not forget that even under Trump supporters, approval rates for wind and solar energy are overwhelmingly positive. Nonetheless, with present government commitments, we are far away from a trajectory to keep global warming below 2 C, so we need to accelerate rather than slow down, and the latter is more likely under a Trump administration. One should also consider secondary effects, e.g. that smart minds that are presently working for the US Department of Energy might leave under a Trump administration, which might take long to rebuild post-Trump.”
Mohammed Atif, Middle East and Africa manager for the consultancy DNV GL:
“Trump will only make the Middle East region want to get more independent and technologically advanced; however, Africa may suffer if funding initiatives like Power Africa are rolled back.”
Aimee Barnes, partner at US-based Allotrope Partners, shareholder in Dubai environment consultancy and project development company V4 Advisors:
“We see huge opportunities for economic growth and for businesses around climate action, and absolutely believe that failure by the US to implement its Paris commitments would represent a lost economic opportunity and would have a hugely detrimental effect on the market.”
Lisa Davis, member of the managing board of Siemens:
“The way we look at [the US elections] is that we’re very committed to the US just like we are to all the countries we do business in. We’re committed to supporting US goals to advance manufacturing and reduce emissions and we find that we’re happy to work with any administration. For us, it’s about doing what’s right for the country, improving efficiency and productivity, etc. We’re focused on what we can control, how we can impact and support change in the marketplace. Helping companies and countries be successful. So we stay focused on that and less on the politics.”
Charles Blaschke at Taka Solutions:
“While in the short term this may be a good strategy for jobs and American security, it is not the smartest approach. Missing the opportunity to address energy security, jobs and financial benefit for the US people by addressing efficiency first is a big loss. While he might not have specific plans to support clean energy (demand or supply) his pro-business approach could lead to natural progression into energy efficiency as it is a very viable business case and in a pure capitalistic market this will find its way to the top. This would most likely take much longer than his term to play out. If he unleased the private investment market on building retrofits, clean energy and tax breaks for making these investments then there could be a huge advancement of clean energy during even a short tenure.”
lgraves@thenational.ae
* The writer covers the renewable-energy beat for The National.
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