At times when fear and loathing are amped-up it often pays to take a more dispassionate look at what is likely to happen, as opposed to what is feared will happen.
The planned US tariffs on steel and aluminium certainly had the effect of raising political and economic temperatures across the world amid fears that President Donald Trump is taking the first step in a global trade war that will end in a 1930s-style depression.
However, there is still a long road to travel from the imposition of tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium to a collapse of the post-Second World War global economic order, even if you believe Mr Trump has opened that door and is preparing to charge through it.
Much will depend on what the rest of the world does in response to the US moves.
The smart play is probably to condemn vociferously in public but to do very little in terms of retaliation, while at the same time reaching out to the Trump administration in the hope of toning down its anti-trade rhetoric and actions.
Assuming Mr Trump's measures don't spark an ongoing tit-for-tat trade war, it will likely become clear that the tariffs are likely to have only a small impact on global commodities, and are effectively an own-goal for the United States.
That's a big assumption, and one not yet in evidence given Mr Trump has seemingly doubled-down on his anti-trade views, saying in a tweet that "trade wars are good, and easy to win", a phrase that may yet become his political epitaph.
But the extent of the poor reaction to the planned tariffs, especially from industries Mr Trump has counted among his supporters, such as oil and gas, coupled with the negative reaction of equity markets may yet give his administration pause for thought.
At any rate, assuming a global trade war can be avoided, the effect of the US tariffs should be to make steel and aluminium more expensive inside the country, while making it relatively cheaper elsewhere in the world.
_______________
Read more:
Any US tariffs will have limited impact on Emirates Steel's exports
Trump's steel war will cost Americans most
_______________
If countries that export to the United States find they can no longer ship the same volumes, they can either find new markets or cut production.
Given that China, the world's top steel producer, only ships a fraction of its exports to the US, it's likely to be the least affected among Asia's steel makers.
Japan and South Korea may find the going tougher, but if those countries do end up with steel gluts, it will likely lower costs for their significant automotive industries, thus improving their export competitiveness.
Aluminium is also a major input into car manufacturing, as well as in other manufactured goods that are commonly imported by the US.
Canada, Brazil and Mexico, the first, second and fourth-largest steel exporters to the United States, respectively, will find it tough to compete in Asian markets, and are therefore most at risk from Mr Trump's planned tariffs.
At the margin, lower Brazilian steel exports may free up some iron ore for increased exports, but it seems likely at this stage that seaborne iron ore is unlikely to suffer much change to either demand or supply from the US tariffs.
Looking at other commodities, it's likely that a similar pattern emerges - namely that the US hurts itself more than others.
While steel tariffs won't directly increase the cost of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal in the United States, it will deliver an indirect impost, given these industries use steel as an input.
Pipelines, import and export terminals, railroads and mines are all significant steel consumers, and higher costs for US producers of oil, LNG and coal will serve to erode their margins against competitors elsewhere in the world.
Again, much of this is at the margin, with higher steel costs likely to make only a tiny difference to actual costs for producing the commodities that the United States exports.
Far more important is the likely hit to sentiment, which is two-pronged.
Firstly, US commodity exporters that are currently enjoying good times in crude, LNG and coal, are likely to be somewhat more cautious in planning capital expenditure.
Secondly, buyers of US commodity exports, while still largely driven by price, may subtly change their buying patterns in favour of other suppliers given the increasing view in the rest of the world that Mr Trump's America isn't a friendly place to do business with.
For example, a South Korean buyer of LNG or coal may choose to buy from Australia instead of the US, if the price differential is small, as a subtle way of getting back at Mr Trump for hurting South Korea's steel industry.
Again, none of this is certain and behavioural economics are far from an exact science.
"I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened," the late American writer and humourist Mark Twain wrote.
Mr Trump's proposed tariffs have certainly increased the world's worries, but if the response is mature and considered, the worst fears may not be realised.
Reuters
Left Bank: Art, Passion and Rebirth of Paris 1940-1950
Agnes Poirer, Bloomsbury
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
WIDE%20VIEW
%3Cp%3EThe%20benefits%20of%20HoloLens%202%2C%20according%20to%20Microsoft%3A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EManufacturing%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Reduces%20downtime%20and%20speeds%20up%20onboarding%20and%20upskilling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngineering%20and%20construction%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Accelerates%20the%20pace%20of%20construction%20and%20mitigates%20risks%20earlier%20in%20the%20construction%20cycle%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20care%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Enhances%20the%20delivery%20of%20patient%20treatment%20at%20the%20point%20of%20care%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEducation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Improves%20student%20outcomes%20and%20teaches%20from%20anywhere%20with%20experiential%20learning%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Fight card
1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)
4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)
5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)
6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)
9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)
10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)
11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
NATIONAL%20SELECTIONS
%3Cp%3E6.00pm%3A%20Heros%20de%20Lagarde%3Cbr%3E6.35pm%3A%20City%20Walk%3Cbr%3E7.10pm%3A%20Mimi%20Kakushi%3Cbr%3E7.45pm%3A%20New%20Kingdom%3Cbr%3E8.20pm%3A%20Siskany%3Cbr%3E8.55pm%3A%20Nations%20Pride%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Ever%20Given%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
The specs: 2018 Jeep Compass
Price, base: Dh100,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.4L four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 184bhp at 6,400rpm
Torque: 237Nm at 3,900rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.4L / 100km
The specs: Audi e-tron
Price, base: From Dh325,000 (estimate)
Engine: Twin electric motors and 95kWh battery pack
Transmission: Single-speed auto
Power: 408hp
Torque: 664Nm
Range: 400 kilometres
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Sevilla v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad (7.15pm)
Eibar v Valencia (9.30pm)
Atletico Madrid v Alaves (11.45pm)
Sunday
Girona v Getafe (3pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7.15pm)
Las Palmas v Espanyol (9.30pm)
Barcelona v Deportivo la Coruna (11.45pm)
Monday
Malaga v Real Betis (midnight)
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Directed by: Shaka King
Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons
Four stars
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
UAE fixtures
Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Central%20Bank's%20push%20for%20a%20robust%20financial%20infrastructure
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ECBDC%20real-value%20pilot%20held%20with%20three%20partner%20institutions%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20buy%20now%2C%20pay%20later%20regulations%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPreparing%20for%20the%202023%20launch%20of%20the%20domestic%20card%20initiative%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPhase%20one%20of%20the%20Financial%20Infrastructure%20Transformation%20(FiT)%20completed%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Why does a queen bee feast only on royal jelly?
Some facts about bees:
The queen bee eats only royal jelly, an extraordinary food created by worker bees so she lives much longer
The life cycle of a worker bee is from 40-60 days
A queen bee lives for 3-5 years
This allows her to lay millions of eggs and allows the continuity of the bee colony
About 20,000 honey bees and one queen populate each hive
Honey is packed with vital vitamins, minerals, enzymes, water and anti-oxidants.
Apart from honey, five other products are royal jelly, the special food bees feed their queen
Pollen is their protein source, a super food that is nutritious, rich in amino acids
Beewax is used to construct the combs. Due to its anti-fungal, anti-bacterial elements, it is used in skin treatments
Propolis, a resin-like material produced by bees is used to make hives. It has natural antibiotic qualities so works to sterilize hive, protects from disease, keeps their home free from germs. Also used to treat sores, infection, warts
Bee venom is used by bees to protect themselves. Has anti-inflammatory properties, sometimes used to relieve conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, nerve and muscle pain
Honey, royal jelly, pollen have health enhancing qualities
The other three products are used for therapeutic purposes
Is beekeeping dangerous?
As long as you deal with bees gently, you will be safe, says Mohammed Al Najeh, who has worked with bees since he was a boy.
“The biggest mistake people make is they panic when they see a bee. They are small but smart creatures. If you move your hand quickly to hit the bees, this is an aggressive action and bees will defend themselves. They can sense the adrenalin in our body. But if we are calm, they are move away.”
more from Janine di Giovanni
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alaan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Parthi%20Duraisamy%20and%20Karun%20Kurien%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%247%20million%20raised%20in%20total%20%E2%80%94%20%242.5%20million%20in%20a%20seed%20round%20and%20%244.5%20million%20in%20a%20pre-series%20A%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LIKELY TEAMS
South Africa
Faf du Plessis (captain), Dean Elgar, Aiden Markram, Hashim Amla, AB de Villiers, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Vernon Philander, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Morne Morkel, Lungi Ngidi.
India (from)
Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
Smart words at Make Smart Cool
Make Smart Cool is not your usual festival. Dubbed “edutainment” by organisers Najahi Events, Make Smart Cool aims to inspire its youthful target audience through a mix of interactive presentation by social media influencers and a concert finale featuring Example with DJ Wire. Here are some of the speakers sharing their inspiration and experiences on the night.
Prince Ea
With his social media videos accumulating more half a billion views, the American motivational speaker is hot on the college circuit in the US, with talks that focus on the many ways to generate passion and motivation when it comes to learning.
Khalid Al Ameri
The Emirati columnist and presenter is much loved by local youth, with writings and presentations about education, entrepreneurship and family balance. His lectures on career and personal development are sought after by the education and business sector.
Ben Ouattara
Born to an Ivorian father and German mother, the Dubai-based fitness instructor and motivational speaker is all about conquering fears and insecurities. His talk focuses on the need to gain emotional and physical fitness when facing life’s challenges. As well managing his film production company, Ouattara is one of the official ambassadors of Dubai Expo2020.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital