A Qantas Airways Airbus A330-300 jet takes off from Sydney International Airport. The carrier says declining ticket prices will hurt earnings. Jason Reed / Reuters
A Qantas Airways Airbus A330-300 jet takes off from Sydney International Airport. The carrier says declining ticket prices will hurt earnings. Jason Reed / Reuters

Qantas predicts falling profit as cheap jet fuel spurs competition



Qantas Airways’ revenue in the three months ended September 30 declined 3.2 per cent to A$3.98 billion from a year earlier, even as passenger numbers grew 2.5 per cent, it said today.

The Australian carrier said first-half earnings may fall as much as 13 per cent as competition drives down international air fares. Underlying profit before tax will be between A$800 million (Dh2.23m) and A$850m for the six months ending December 31. The figure was A$921m in the same period a year ago.

A smaller fuel bill and a cost-cutting programme will not be enough to compensate for declining revenue, Qantas said. Worldwide, the falling price of jet fuel – typically an airline’s biggest expense – is encouraging carriers to lay on more flights. That is driving down ticket prices.

Qantas faces “a more challenging international revenue environment,” said the chief executive Alan Joyce. “Like most carriers globally, we are seeing international air fares below where they were 12 months ago.”

Shares in Qantas rose 1 per cent to A$2.97 at 11:15am in Sydney, trimming this year’s decline to 27 per cent. Within the first hour of trading, the stock dropped as much 9.2 per cent and traded up as much as 5.4 per cent.

Qantas reined in planned capacity growth by as much as 50 per cent. Across the group, capacity in the first half will increase between 1.5 and 2 per cent, down from earlier expectations of 2 to 3 per cent growth, it said.

The airline in August announced its first dividend since 2009 and handed bonuses to 25,000 workers as Mr Joyce’s A$2bn turnaround programme delivered a record annual profit. Mr Joyce has cut thousands of jobs, deferred aircraft and dropped unprofitable routes.

The airline had previously said that domestic traffic in July and August was hurt by softening demand stemming from Australia’s federal election in July. Qantas said today the local market stabilised in September, other than those routes affected by the end of the nation’s commodities boom.

Qantas’ first-half fuel bill will be about A$1.5bn, it said. For the full year, the cost will be A$3.15bn and no more than A$3.2bn. Qantas’ fuel expenses were A$3.25bn for the whole of last year.

Monday’s statement is the first quarterly update to replace the airline’s monthly release of traffic statistics.

* Bloomberg

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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