Housing demand in Dubai has reached unprecedented levels as a growing population continues to drive absorption of supply in the residential market, according to real estate consultancy ValuStrat.
By the end of March, Dubai’s population had risen to 3.92 million, with 89,695 new residents added in just the first three months of the year, an average of approximately 1,000 people per day. The net population increase for 2024 was 170,478 people, averaging less than 500 per day, ValuStrat said in a new report.
“Securing an affordable home to buy or rent is becoming more difficult in an increasingly unaffordable market,” said Haider Tuaima, managing director and head of real estate research at ValuStrat.
“There has been consistent annual growth in capital values across all segments, according to the ValuStrat Price Index, which tracks the residential market. Apartment prices have risen by 21.4 per cent, while villa prices have increased by 30.3 per cent. Rents have also surged, with villa rents up by 5.1 per cent and apartment rents rising by 10 per cent.”
The number of people seeking to buy or rent outstrips the volume of available properties. An earlier report issued by ValuStrat said that 27,000 new homes were completed in 2024, which the consultancy said was the lowest figure for six years. Meanwhile, the emirate's population continued to grow, meaning demand was significantly outstripping supply.
Dubai's property market has been benefiting from government initiatives, such as residency permits for retired and remote workers, expansion of the 10-year golden visa programme and overall growth in the UAE’s economy on diversification efforts.
Around 61,580 new homes are estimated to be delivered in Dubai this year, 70 per cent being apartments, and 30 per cent villas/town houses. Of these, 19 per cent, nearly 12,000 apartments and villas, were completed in the first quarter alone, ValuStrat found.
“This is not unexpected, considering that just over half of last year’s projected deliveries were ultimately handed over,” Mr Tuaima said.
ValuStrat estimated that 141,404 apartments and 29,649 villas and town houses are actively under construction, with handovers promised by 2029. Of these projects, 12 per cent is located in Jumeirah Village Circle, with another 7 per cent located in Business Bay followed by Jumeirah Lakes Towers with 5 per cent, the consultancy found.
Off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations declined by 8 per cent in the first quarter compared to the previous three months, but were 37.5 per cent higher annually, representing investments totalling Dh77.3 billion. The first quarter recorded 12,396 secondary ready home transactions, up 5.8 per cent year-on-year but down 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter, equivalent to investments worth Dh33billion, the data showed.
There has been consistent annual growth in capital values across all segments
Haider Tuaima,
managing director and head of real estate research, ValuStrat
The Dubai real estate market registered 9,388 mortgage transactions across all asset classes in the first three months of 2025, compared to 14,386 cash transactions of ready properties. The total sales value attributed to mortgage transactions stood at Dh21 billion, with cash transactions totalling Dh33 billion.
“The only downside this quarter was the decline in residential sales, both off-plan and ready properties, as well as a decrease in mortgage applications, though this is only when compared to the previous quarter. This trend is neither unprecedented nor unexpected and may be attributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, potentially leading to a market correction at some point,” according to Mr Tuaima.
On average, most apartment communities remain 8.1 per cent below their capital values from a decade ago. Notable exceptions include Palm Jumeirah, The Greens and Jumeirah Beach Residence. In contrast, villa valuations in Dubai are, on average, 59.9 per cent above their previous market highs from 10 years ago.
During the first quarter, villa capital gains recorded a 30.3 per cent annual and 6.2 per cent quarterly increase. The most significant yearly growth was observed in Jumeirah Islands, Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills and The Meadows, while Mudon recorded the lowest gains, ValuStrat found.
Apartment values posted a decelerated annual increase of 21.4 per cent and quarterly growth of 3.8 per cent. The highest capital gains over the year were seen in The Greens, Dubailand Residence Complex, Palm Jumeirah, Town Square and The Views.
Villa asking rents remained stable quarterly but were up 5.1 per cent annually. Apartment asking rents increased by 1.6 per cent quarterly and 10 per cent yearly, the consultancy said.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Fourth Arab Economic and Social Development Summit
As he spoke, Mr Aboul Gheit repeatedly referred to the need to tackle issues affecting the welfare of people across the region both in terms of preventing conflict and in pushing development.
Lebanon is scheduled to host the fourth Arab Economic and Social Development Summit in January that will see regional leaders gather to tackle the challenges facing the Middle East. The last such summit was held in 2013. Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki told The National that the Beirut Summit “will be an opportunity for Arab leaders to discuss solely economic and social issues, the conference will not focus on political concerns such as Palestine, Syria or Libya". He added that its slogan will be “the individual is at the heart of development”, adding that it will focus on all elements of human capital.
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
QUARTER-FINAL
Wales 20-19 France
Wales: T: Wainwright, Moriarty. Cons: Biggar (2) Pens: Biggar 2
France: T: Vahaamahina, Ollivon, Vakatawa Cons: Ntamack (2)
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The five pillars of Islam
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo
Power: 435hp at 5,900rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,800-5,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Price: from Dh498,542
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Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
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Squad
Ali Kasheif, Salim Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdulrahman, Mohammed Al Attas, Abdullah Ramadan, Zayed Al Ameri (Al Jazira), Mohammed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammed Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Essa, Mohammed Shaker, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah) Walid Abbas, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli), Tariq Ahmed, Jasim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Muharami (Baniyas)
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
