Dubai's real estate sector is booming and has been attracting a growing amount of investment, but “property speculation remains within desirable limits”, the Dubai Land Department has said.
The emirate's real estate market recorded about 163,000 transactions valued at more than Dh544 billion ($148 billion) in the first nine months of this year, the Dubai Media Office cited the Dubai Land Department as saying on Tuesday.
Real estate investments also exceeded Dh376 billion during this period, “driven by advanced infrastructure and a strong regulatory framework”, the DLD said.
“While the sector continues to achieve record growth, property speculation remains within desirable limits, not exceeding 20 per cent, reflecting stability and sustainability in investment trends.”
Dubai’s market has evolved significantly since 2007-2008, with much greater regulation of the real estate and finance sectors, including the introduction of higher loan-to-value ratios, the introduction of escrow and other restrictions related to the resale of off-plan units, said Matthew Green, head of research – Mena, at CBRE.
“This has ultimately created a less volatile and speculative market, which in turn has been key in attracting a much wider demographic of new investors to enter the space,” he told The National.
In the third quarter of this year, the value of residential transactions increased 32.5 per cent annually and 19.5 per cent quarterly to Dh139.8 billion, “reporting its highest record-breaking level”, EFG Hermes said in a report last week.
Primary sales grew 30 per cent year on year, with developers launching more new projects. Off-plan sales activity was up 30 per cent annually and 27 per cent quarter-on-quarter, it said.
According to data from Reidin, off-plan sales amounted to $34.3 billion in the first half of this year, and are on track to exceed $58.3 billion for last year.
With about 200,000 new units launched since last year alone, “there has been a massive shift in the composition of the sales market, which has moved from a 50/50 split in volume terms during 2015, to 70/30 in favour of the off-plan market”, Mr Green said.
“Whilst this is obviously reflective of rising and sustained demand for new properties, the growing disparity between ready and off-plan volume does need to be monitored from a fundamental perspective to ensure end-user and occupier demand remains sufficient to meet with the significant future deliveries.”
Other important factors also need to be considered, in terms of investor preference for projects, the significant effect of payment plans on an investor’s ability to acquire an asset, and the diminishing availability of ready and available properties for sale, he added.
Dubai this month unveiled its Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, which seeks to double the sector’s contribution to the emirate's gross domestic product to about Dh73 billion by 2033. The strategy also aims to raise real estate transactions by 70 per cent to Dh1 trillion by 2033, increase home ownership rates to 33 per cent and expand the value of Dubai’s real estate portfolios to Dh20 billion.
It will include the introduction of a series of programmes by 2033 to raise the quality of developments, enhance transparency and leverage data for better market forecasting.
Increasing transparency and showcasing high-value real estate assets to attract significant international investment, particularly from emerging markets, remains a focal point, Marwan bin Ghalita, director general of Dubai Land Department, said.
They are also reinforcing the support infrastructure for the sector and the use of technology, including artificial intelligence and data centralisation to support investors and end users.
Such initiatives, alongside investment reforms and supportive regulations for businesses, are enhancing Dubai's real estate market, S&P Global Ratings said in a report this week. Factors including the rising population, visa reforms such as the golden visa, and high rents, are also pushing people to buy property.
So far, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has had no significant effects on Dubai's residential real estate market, S&P said.
“Dubai's dynamic economic environment, its reputation as a safe haven, and the low tax regime sustain the emirate's attractiveness for global investors.”
Property prices, which have risen sharply in recent years, will remain stable over the next 18 months and could decline afterwards due to increasing supply, according to S&P.
“A potential increase in supply could saturate the unfulfilled demand, and lead to lower prices and rents,” the report said.
In the third quarter, average selling prices rose 3 per cent on a quarterly basis to an average of Dh2,080/square feet, EFG Hermes said.
Pricing levels continue to move higher, with sales and rental values increasing by about 20 per cent year-on-year versus this same quarter last year, Mr Green said.
“The rental market is often a better bellwether for measuring demand, as when rents are increasing, supply is typically scarce, and that remains the situation for much of Dubai,” he said.
In the short term, residential supply is unlikely to keep pace with population-driven demand, leading to further growth in capital values and rental rates, although “we expect a moderation from the current high levels during 2025".
“However, there is likely to be a significant increase in the number of new units delivered during the period 2026 to 2028, and that could impact the performance of the sector should completions pan out as currently forecast,” Mr Green said.
Residential supply stock is expected to increase by about 182,000 units over 2025-2026, given that the large number of properties that were pre-sold over 2022-2023 will be delivered, S&P said. This is significantly higher than the average of 40,000 units delivered per year over 2019-2023.
So far though, deliveries this year have not kept pace with those last year, S&P said.
“Significant delays in delivery, which are not uncommon for the industry – often due to construction capacity constraints – could tighten the market and support upwards price trends, at least over the short term. Yet we expect the residential real estate market will balance out by 2026 at the latest,” it added.
What is the definition of an SME?
SMEs in the UAE are defined by the number of employees, annual turnover and sector. For example, a “small company” in the services industry has six to 50 employees with a turnover of more than Dh2 million up to Dh20m, while in the manufacturing industry the requirements are 10 to 100 employees with a turnover of more than Dh3m up to Dh50m, according to Dubai SME, an agency of the Department of Economic Development.
A “medium-sized company” can either have staff of 51 to 200 employees or 101 to 250 employees, and a turnover less than or equal to Dh200m or Dh250m, again depending on whether the business is in the trading, manufacturing or services sectors.
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2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
