Despite the storm clouds through which world aviation occasionally passes, a brighter outlook seems in store as the oldest and perhaps grandest of air shows prepares to open in Paris today.
Mixed or even gloomy forecasts are commonplace in the approach to the industry's biennial European showcase, alternating with the United Kingdom's Farnborough event and set at the historic airport of Le Bourget.
A downbeat view of business prospects adds to the irritation of formidable traffic jams around the event’s location north of the French capital. But those dark clouds can disperse and signs are emerging that this year’s 51st edition may, as has happened previously, herald smoother times.
In the ever-running battle for supremacy between the two international giants of aircraft production, the US’s Boeing and France’s Airbus, news of confirmed or possible orders has inevitably caused a flurry of pre-Paris excitement.
In the past few days, the US carrier Delta Air Lines has agreed to buy 40 more Boeing 737-900R jets, adding to the 100 it ordered in 2011. All are designed to replace existing narrow-bodied planes approaching retirement.
The deal is worth US$4 billion at list prices, although this will be reduced by discounts commonplace in the trade. The airline will also take 20 E190s, built by the Brazilian maker Embraer for domestic US flights.
A much bigger deal involving between 70 and 100 wide-bodied planes wanted by Emirates is reported to be the target of both the big two, with Boeing the favourite to meet the Dubai operator’s requirements with its 787-10 Dreamliners.
An announcement is widely expected at the Dubai Airshow in November, although the tussle is certain to be on many lips in Paris.
According to the British industry analysts Strategic Aero Research, Boeing 787-10's availability "trumps" the Airbus A350-1000 with the A350-900 "out of the picture". But the Emirates president Tim Clark has hinted that hard talking remains to be done as the Dreamliner, unlike its rival Airbus jets, fails to meet the airline's "thrust requirements".
The Post and Courier, a US daily newspaper serving the South Carolina city of Charleston, the home of one of the Dreamliner assembly plants, describes jockeying for the order as a tug-of-war "over what could be one of either manufacturer's largest orders".
Even assuming no decision is made in Paris, there were already reasons for renewed optimism, if prudent and perhaps selective, especially given the strength of the Middle East aviation sector and rapid growth in Asia.
Industry observers have cautioned against expectations of a repetition of the level of orders seen in recent years from Arabian Gulf carriers — Etihad and Qatar Airways as well as Emirates.
Against that, Airbus executives have talked of the prospect of disclosing lucrative sales during the show. And Qatar Airways has promised it will be making “important announcements”, though it stopped short of saying these would be for the purchase of new aircraft.
In a mixed appraisal of the state of the industry ahead of the show, the conservative French daily newspaper Le Figaro spoke of "two-speed growth", with constantly increasing passenger numbers predominantly benefiting Middle East and Asian operators, in contrast to shrinking seat capacity offered by western airlines.
If the enthusiasm of many US and European carriers for significant additions to their fleets is open to doubt, the manufacturers must look to areas of the world where the possibility of expansion seems stronger.
A Bloomberg report suggested Airbus will be targeting smaller airlines, notably those of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia).
Habib Fekih, the president of Airbus Group Middle East, said he did not envision an airline placing new orders for “hundreds of aircraft every year”.
But with potential for growth, should stability return to such troubled countries as Iraq and Yemen, plus Iran’s slow progress towards international re-acceptance, he remains upbeat. The group’s aim is to sell 2,000 aircraft between 2013 and 2032.
“I’ve been in the region for more than 20 years,” Mr Fekih said. “We passed many wars, many crises and despite that the traffic is growing higher than the average rate in the rest of the world.”
The starting point of 2013 for the Airbus sales target is significant because that was the year of bumper deals at the Dubai Airshow. New purchases from Emirates, Etihad, Qatar and flydubai accounted for the bulk of a total order book of $206.1bn, a record at any air show.
Emirates alone announced its "largest-ever aircraft order in civil aviation and also its largest order announced at any event to date", committing $99bn to buy 150 Boeing 777X jets, with an option of 50 more, and 50 Airbus A380s.
At the Paris show in 2011, Airbus received total orders valued at about $72.2bn for 730 aircraft, itself a record figure at the time.
Wherever its hoped-for 2015 Paris orders come from, Airbus could do with a fillip after five crashes involving A320s since last December — including the Germanwings disaster in the French Alps in March, caused by a suicidal co-pilot. There was also the loss, about six weeks after the Alps crash, of an Airbus A400M Atlas four-engine turboprop military transporter, leaving four crew dead at Seville in southern Spain.
One piece of Airbus news that the Paris show is unlikely to produce is an announcement Emirates dearly wishes to hear, that Europe’s biggest aerospace manufacturer would finally give the go-ahead to a new generation of A380s.
The carrier is said to be willing to place an order for as many as 200 aircraft, but Airbus, wary about committing to producing a new plane with only one obvious buyer seriously interested, insists there are no immediate plans to introduce the refinement.
Fabrice Bregier, the chief executive of the plane-making unit of Airbus, said recently on French television that the aircraft’s design would evolve but that radical change was “not currently on the agenda”.
However, he predicted the fast growth of Asian air travel would boost orders for the existing model. In this traditional battle of the giants, Boeing is hoping to impress in Paris with the stretched 787-9 version of the Dreamliner, due for delivery to Vietnam Airlines. It will take part in the flying displays at Le Bourget, where it took its industry bow at the 2011 show.
A Qatar Airways 787-8 will be on ground display and the US defence department, having maintained a low profile amid spending cuts in 2013, will once again be showing a range of combat planes.
Most observers expect Boeing, like Airbus, to emerge from the show with new business, although Boeing officials have said they will not, as Britain's Flight International magazine puts it, "play the count-the-tally game", preferring to make announcements only when desired by client airlines.
Fortunately for those fascinated by the detail of the big-two duelling, clients tend not to be shrinking violets when major orders are placed.
Other highlights of this year’s show could include the mock-up of the new short-to-medium haul Mitsubishi MRJ, Japan’s first passenger jet. The company, scheduled to make it first deliveries in 2017, is confident of gaining orders soon from the Middle East and Europe, as it braces itself to compete with Embraer and Canada’s Bombardier in the market for smaller aircraft.
Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder fighter and the Ukrainian-built Antonov AN-178 transport aircraft are both expected to make appearances at the show.
Two years ago, the Paris event attracted nearly 140,000 trade visitors and 176,000 members of the public. The number of confirmed exhibitors — more than 2,000 — is already slightly up on two years ago. Admission is restricted to trade for the first four days of the show, leaving three days for general entry.
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