Over the last few years, producers belonging to Opec have had mixed success at winning the price-setting "game" for oil.
To stand a better chance of regaining durable control, they must do a much better job of working together, and, importantly, they need to do so in a much broader and more institutionalised manner.
Otherwise, they risk finding that the calming influence of a good July for the oil market, including a 9 per cent price gain, could give way to continuing pressure from nontraditional suppliers, particularly in shale, that are benefiting from cost-cutting innovations.
To win the price-setting game, oil producers need to address two related issues: they must maintain prices at a relatively high level without losing more market share to nontraditional producers, and they need to retain unity amid geopolitical tensions and disparities in domestic economic and financial situations.
The easiest way to achieve this - absent a major exogenous shock to oil production - is through a large increase in energy demand. This is unlikely to happen anytime soon. The alternative is better supply management. Here, Opec members have essentially three types of approaches available, and each comes with implementation challenges.
The first is to try to establish and lead a broad coalition that includes non-Opec producers and involves some type of understanding with nontraditional suppliers. This is OPEC's best chance of reversing the multi-decade process of transition from a cartel of the many when it comes to share of energy production to the cartel of the fewer.
But this first best approach for Opec is not just the least likely; it may also be a non-starter, given that nontraditional producers have such a fundamentally different setup. They are much more dispersed and highly decentralised, and they have little experience in self-organising. Also, many reside in the US, a legal jurisdiction that is highly averse to pursuing a government-led approach to oil production.
The second approach is for Opec to try to strengthen its recent alignment with producers outside the cartel by seeking tighter production curbs and stronger verification and enforcement mechanisms, and adding the incentive of a stabilisation fund that would help the more pressured producers through multiple cash crunches. Such a unified approach would provide oil producers with greater short-term influence over oil prices.
Again, implementation is far from straightforward, as it would require a greater level of cooperation among a group that includes increasingly bitter geopolitical rivals. Moreover, a heavy funding burden would need to be carried by the low-cost producers led by Saudi Arabia, and would involve a set of cross-subsidies that are likely to be a lot more permanent than they may wish to -- and should -- commit to.
The third approach would be for Opec to go all out to meaningfully disrupt the current production of nontraditional suppliers and, simultaneously, cripple the flow of funds for their investment needs. By allowing oil prices to plummet and stay low for a considerable time, this approach would eat into both operating earnings and investable funds in a manner that would render a recovery tricky and a lot more uncertain for these suppliers. It would be a repeat of what was attempted starting in November 2014, but with more duration and structural underpinnings.
In this scenario, and without a meaningful pickup in demand, Opec members would need to be willing and able to live with a lot lower oil prices. They would have to convince their citizens that the potential longer-term gains are worth what would likely be considerable short-term pain. And to maintain the type of unity that would be required to carry out potential mid-course corrections, they would need to introduce an even larger stabilisation fund than required for second option.
Again, this is not an approach that Opec would readily adopt. But members could risk slipping into a disorderly version of it if the current arrangement with non-Opec producers does not hold.
This brief survey of the most likely types of supply approaches available to Opec speaks to a larger notion of game theory. Having experienced a gradual and persistent erosion in its dominance of the oil market,Opec members are being pushed to play a larger cooperative game that involves ever broader coalitions to secure an orderly influence on oil prices. This explains the step-up in contacts with non-Opec producers. And it explains why the initial agreement reached already needs some tweaking.
The survey also suggests that, at least for now, the most likely outcome is one in which Opec seeks to influence a series of range-bound trading bands around what is likely to be a declining secular trend longer-term. Periods of price recoveries within the bands, such as the one in July, should reinforce rather that deter member countries from implementing the fundamental changes at home that would make them more resilient to what is likely to be a trickier future.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lupita%20Nyong'o%2C%20Joseph%20Quinn%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Sarnoski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Five films to watch
Castle in the Sky (1986)
Grave of the Fireflies (1988)
Only Yesterday (1991)
Pom Poki (1994)
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (2013)
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
RACE CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
8.15pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
9.50pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES
Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)
Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)
Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)
All the Money in the World
Director: Ridley Scott
Starring: Charlie Plummer, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Williams, Christopher Plummer
Four stars
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
The biog
Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah
Date of birth: 15 November, 1951
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Her most famous song
Aghadan Alqak (Would I Ever Find You Again)?
Would I ever find you again
You, the heaven of my love, my yearning and madness;
You, the kiss to my soul, my cheer and
sadness?
Would your lights ever break the night of my eyes again?
Would I ever find you again?
This world is volume and you're the notion,
This world is night and you're the lifetime,
This world is eyes and you're the vision,
This world is sky and you're the moon time,
Have mercy on the heart that belongs to you.
Lyrics: Al Hadi Adam; Composer: Mohammed Abdel Wahab
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE v Ireland
1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets
2nd ODI, January 12
3rd ODI, January 14
4th ODI, January 16
THE BIO:
Favourite holiday destination: Thailand. I go every year and I’m obsessed with the fitness camps there.
Favourite book: Born to Run by Christopher McDougall. It’s an amazing story about barefoot running.
Favourite film: A League of their Own. I used to love watching it in my granny’s house when I was seven.
Personal motto: Believe it and you can achieve it.
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Apple product price list
iPad Pro
11" - $799 (64GB)
12.9" - $999 (64GB)
MacBook Air
$1,199
Mac Mini
$799
TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 2
(Martial 30', McTominay 90 6')
Manchester City 0
Results
6.30pm: Madjani Stakes Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m, Winner: RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Mnasek, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Grand Dubai, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m, Winner: Meqdam, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Thegreatcollection, Pat Cosgrave, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Madkhal, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m, Winner SS Lamea, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m, Winner AF Makerah, Sean Kirrane, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m, Winner Maaly Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,600m, Winner AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m, Winner Morjanah Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,200m, Winner Mudarrab, Jim Crowley, Erwan Charpy
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The%20Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Movie
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aaron%20Horvath%20and%20Michael%20Jelenic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Pratt%2C%20Anya%20Taylor-Joy%2C%20Charlie%20Day%2C%20Jack%20Black%2C%20Seth%20Rogen%20and%20Keegan-Michael%20Key%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mane points for safe home colouring
- Natural and grey hair takes colour differently than chemically treated hair
- Taking hair from a dark to a light colour should involve a slow transition through warmer stages of colour
- When choosing a colour (especially a lighter tone), allow for a natural lift of warmth
- Most modern hair colours are technique-based, in that they require a confident hand and taught skills
- If you decide to be brave and go for it, seek professional advice and use a semi-permanent colour
More from Armen Sarkissian
Company%20profile
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