SEOUL // Barack Obama, the US president, faces a turbulent time trying to defuse potentially explosive trade and currency issues at the Group of 20 (G20) summit today.
Mr Obama was forced to leave the Indonesian capital Jakarta ahead of schedule yesterday to avoid the ash plume from the erupting volcano Mount Merapi.
Arriving in Seoul, the US president was widely criticised over his country's quantitative easing policy.
This followed last week's decision by the US Federal Reserve to buy US$600 billion (Dh2.2 trillion) in government bonds to try to spur lending and boost the US economy. Critics say the move will give US goods an unfair advantage.
But Mr Obama stressed a strong US economy was vital to the global recovery and urged other G20 leaders to put aside their differences and do their part to bolster growth.
"The United States will do its part to restore strong growth, reduce economic imbalances and calm markets," he wrote in a letter before the South Korean summit of leading and emerging economies.
"A strong recovery that creates jobs, income and spending is the most important contribution the United States can make to the global recovery."
Mr Obama's comments came after a day of heated arguments as negotiators struggled to hammer out a closing statement that all G20 leaders could sign. Aides pressing mobile phones to their ears shuttled in and out of the hall as they tried to draft a final statement, due to be released tomorrow. But they remained far apart on pivotal issues, including exchange rates.
"We had to open the door because the debate was so animated and the room was getting hot," said Kim Yoon Kyung, a G20 spokesman, during the day-long talks.
In his letter, Mr Obama sought to return the discussion to global imbalances and insisted the US was not the only country that must change its ways.
"Just as the United States must change, so too must those economies that have previously relied on exports to offset weaknesses in their own demand," he wrote in a thinly veiled reference to China, whose politically contentious trade surplus widened to $27.1bn last month.
Mr Obama also faces tricky discussions on getting a final understanding on the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement that was signed during the presidency of his predecessor George W Bush.
Mr Obama hopes to present the bill for ratification by the new US Congress, once negotiators have hammered out the details, to increase the imports of US cars and beef to South Korea.
Ron Kirk, the US special trade representative, has been locked in negotiations for the past three days with Kim Jong-hoon, the South Korean trade minister, on the issue of fuel efficiency and other regulatory and tax problems, including tariffs on spare parts.
The US also wants to speed up the end of quotas on the import of US beef. This has grown to 35 per cent of all beef imports since South Koreans staged mass demonstrations against US meat in 2008 after a television station aired an inaccurate report about mad cow disease in American cattle.
While Mr Obama might be in for a rough ride in Seoul, the two-day summit will provide a better forum for emerging economies.
"The Asian countries are happy," said John Kirton, a member of the G20 research group at the University of Toronto. "They have an equal seat at the table for the first time," he said, referring to the rising role of emerging market countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, since the first G20 meeting in Washington two years ago.
Not everyone, however, agreed. "There's no genuine desire to give real power to developing countries," said Lakhvinder Singh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
"In international institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF and the Asia Development Bank, the western countries still dominate. The changes are not nearly enough."
Away from the discussions, authorities in the South Korean capital have increased security. Some 50,000 police officers, more than one-third of the national force, will be deployed, including about 20,000 riot police.
A special law has also been enacted to give police greater authorities to thwart street demonstrations and allow the deployment of troops in public areas.
But, so far, there have been no major flashpoints. Two small protests, against a free trade deal with the US and tax reform in South Korea, were staged yesterday morning.
* with Reuters
business@thenational.ae
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
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Aaron Finch, Matt Renshaw, Brendan Doggett, Michael Neser, Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Tim Paine (captain), Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Jon Holland, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Peter Siddle
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Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.