Watch any great sportsman, and you will notice the difference between them and lesser mortals. While they don't appear to swing with any greater force, instead appearing balanced and totally in control, they manage to hit the ball with untold power. Take Justine Henin, for example. The petite Belgian tennis star, who probably weighs no more than a decent-sized family dog, possesses the most impressive backhand in the modern game. How can such a small body hit a ball so hard?
Or consider the golfer Rory McIlroy. A small slip of a lad, with hands not much bigger than an iPhone, he can propel the ball colossal distances. How exactly? The answer is timing. Of course there are also years of coaching and practice, as always with any activity that appears effortless, but even hack golfers such as myself enjoy occasional moments of joy when the clubhead hits the ball with a satisfying swish and the little white object soars into the distance, the result of a fortunate coincidence of timing.
So what's this got to do with a stock portfolio? Because as in golf or tennis, timing is everything. It was Warren Buffett, the so-called Sage of Omaha, who said that "you should always invest in a company that an idiot could run, because one day an idiot will end up running it". However, you don't expect an idiot to set up a column dispensing stock market tips. Still, my erstwhile colleague appears to be at the very least an idiot savant, with the knack of knowing when to trade.
He may be better built than Ms Henin, but my colleague Jonathan Gornall clearly packs a considerable punch of his own. For his contrarian, reckless decision to invest all his money in BP, the beleaguered oil company - besides retaining one share in Domino's Pizza, an accident apparently - was an inspired move. My only quibble is that for someone who has followed the markets for the best part of 20 years, I am instinctively appalled by his insistence on being an "outsider trader". Anyone who has paced the Square Mile knows that you need to be an "insider trader". After all, to make out like a bandit, first you have to be a bandit.
How did Michael Milken make a fortune - part of which he spent on that luxurious silken wig? Not just by taking enormous bets on the markets, but by making sure by judicious payments that those bets were sure to come off. I am sure that Mr Gornall was unaware of this and it certainly did not influence his decision, but it was The National that helped BP shares recover. When we ran a story on July 4 that BP was seeking Middle East investors, it was picked up around the world.
When markets opened on Monday, the shares rallied, and continued to recover throughout the week. Since the beginning of July, BP shares are up about 26 per cent. There were further legs to our story when Tony Hayward pitched up in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday for talks with government figures. Was he following us - or was it the other way round? Either way, my timing has been impressive. I don't think it is any coincidence that the portfolio has recovered with me in charge. It is rather like a horse, when they realise that they have an experienced rider in the saddle.
The initial, fictional £15,000 (Dh82,708) is now worth £16,026.55. Of that, BP constitutes £16,022, up nearly 7 per cent from when they were first purchased. (Gornall's instinct was sound, even if his timing was a bit off.) And even the computer blunder that meant we kept a pizza stake has been rewarded: Domino's is up 8 per cent. I am tempted to let BP shares run. One day they might even cap the well. That might be a signal for profit taking. I shall be reluctant to sell the Domino Pizza shares though.
Over 10 years ago, I had a girlfriend in Notting Hill Gate in London. It was our custom to meet once a week and share a pizza. On three occasions we ordered a margherita from Domino's Pizza and each time it arrived an hour late. My girlfriend was quite fiery. On the final occasion, she took the pizza from the delivery boy and delivered her own verdict on the company. "You lot are useless," she yelled. "Every time I order from you the pizza shows up an hour late."
He was unfazed. "Then why do you keep calling us?" A fair point. Clearly Domino's Pizza's customers are so dim, their arteries so clogged with cheese, that they will keep ordering even if they have to wait an hour longer than they want to. Such loyalty must be worth something, so perhaps I should hold on to the shares. On second thought, now is the time to make them pay for their poor service and get my revenge for hanging around her flat an hour longer than I wanted to. Domino's Pizzas are for the chop. Timing may be everything and knowing when to go for the jugular is just one element. Waiter, bring me my pizza slicer.
I shall diversify. I might even buy some Royal Dutch Shell. Rupert Wright, the Comment Editor of the Business section of The National, is our guest columnist while Jonathan Gornall is on leave. He can be reached at rwright@thenational.ae.
