The US dollar enjoyed a mini renaissance in the first half of the month. Asif Hassan / AFP
The US dollar enjoyed a mini renaissance in the first half of the month. Asif Hassan / AFP
The US dollar enjoyed a mini renaissance in the first half of the month. Asif Hassan / AFP
The US dollar enjoyed a mini renaissance in the first half of the month. Asif Hassan / AFP

A tricky time for the dollar but expect a December rate hike


Gaurav Kashyap
  • English
  • Arabic

The US dollar continued to trade heavily through the end of November. The Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, dipped to two month lows at 92.43 this month before hawkish comments from the upcoming Fed chair nominee Jerome Powell sparked an intraday rally in the greenback on Tuesday.

It is a tricky time for the dollar. Fundamentally, the most recent Fed meeting minutes, released last week, suggest that the US economy has continued to show signs of strength - overall economic activity continues to expand while inflation still lags in the US.

The minutes also all but cemented a third US rate hike this year, at the next Fed meeting on December 13. With markets pricing in a 92.8 per cent chance of a hike to the band between 1.25-1.50 per cent, we would expect the recent dollar moves in October and early November to suggest that December’s rate hike has already been priced in. Therefore it will be the Fed’s comments on the future path of rate hikes that we will pay close attention to.

Also driving dollar volatility will be developments out of Washington, in what promises to be a very busy December. Donald Trump and the Republicans are pushing hard to get their tax plans delivered by the end of the year. Earlier in the month, the House of Representatives passed their own version of the tax plan – and the ball now moves to the House of Senate who aim to approve the bill this week.

While it seems significant strides are being made, much needs to be done to circumnavigate the still clear bi-partisan divide along with the gaps within the Republican party itself. Watch for these developments to drive dollar pricing through the early parts of December before the holiday lull sees liquidity dry up heading into the Christmas holiday period.

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Read more from Gaurav Kashyap:

Dollar slips back amid mixed signals over US tax reforms

US tax and upbeat economic outlooks lift dollar’s fortunes

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Expect more fireworks in Washington as the US government faces a debt ceiling breach. The government is scheduled to run out of funds by December 8 and will shut down if the Democrats and Republicans fail to reach an agreement to raise the ceiling. US lawmakers will do everything to avoid a shutdown, and while we don’t expect to see a lapse of the December 8 debt, there will be much posturing between parties after President Trump’s recent Tweet that he doesn’t see a deal riled Democrat leaders, who, cancelled several meetings to discuss the default.

This will continue to erode risk sentiment going into the first week of December, however, expect a favourable conclusion to kickstart a nice dollar rally. Technically, we expect dollar buying to come in between 92.50-93 levels with upsides capped at 96.50 in the weeks ahead.

Across the pond, the euro put together an unforgettable performance against the dollar in November, a period in much the cross moved 1.8 per cent higher. We continue to favour long positions in EUR/USD over the next quarter on the back of expected tightening from the European Central Bank.

We saw the central bank earlier announce a reduction to its current asset purchase program and we can expect this sentiment to keep driving euro prices higher. Expect to see further consolidation in EUR/USD at the current levels as it moves firmly into a monthly Ichimoku cloud. There should be strong support at 1.17 levels going forward, which would represent an ideal long entry level.

And finally, the British pound moved higher against the greenback in November. Recently political uncertainty had kept GBP gains in check, however yesterday’s developments, which saw the potential for a Brexit deal to be agreed, sparked a fresh buying rally in British pound assets which saw GBP/USD move above 1.34 levels on the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange. Expect near term support to come in at 1.33 levels with upsides capped at 1.3655 levels in the month ahead.

Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at EGM Futures

Specs

Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request

RESULTS

5pm: Rated Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (Turf) 1,600m
Winner: AF Mouthirah, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)

5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AF Alajaj, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Hawafez, Connor Beasley, Abubakar Daud

6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Tair, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel

7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Wakeel W’Rsan, Richard Mullen, Jaci Wickham

7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
Winner: Son Of Normandy, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash

RESULTS

5pm Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner Munfared, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)

5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner Sawt Assalam, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

6pm Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Dergham Athbah, Pat Dobbs, Mohamed Daggash

6.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Rajee, Fernando Jara, Majed Al Jahouri

7pm Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner Kerless Del Roc, Fernando Jara, Ahmed Al Mehairbi

7.30pm Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 (D) 2,000m

Winner Pharoah King, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

8pm Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 (D) 2,000m

Winner Sauternes Al Maury, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENadeera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERabih%20El%20Chaar%20and%20Reem%20Khattar%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECleanTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHope%20Ventures%2C%20Rasameel%20Investments%20and%20support%20from%20accelerator%20programmes%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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4pm Maratha Arabians v Northern Warriors

6.15pm Deccan Gladiators v Pune Devils

8.30pm Delhi Bulls v Bangla Tigers

UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Match info

Uefa Champions League Group H

Manchester United v Young Boys, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)

House-hunting

Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove

  1. Edinburgh, Scotland 
  2. Westminster, London 
  3. Camden, London 
  4. Glasgow, Scotland 
  5. Islington, London 
  6. Kensington and Chelsea, London 
  7. Highlands, Scotland 
  8. Argyll and Bute, Scotland 
  9. Fife, Scotland 
  10. Tower Hamlets, London 

 

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Washmen Profile

Date Started: May 2015

Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Laundry

Employees: 170

Funding: about $8m

Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures

Managing the separation process

  • Choose your nursery carefully in the first place
  • Relax – and hopefully your child will follow suit
  • Inform the staff in advance of your child’s likes and dislikes.
  • If you need some extra time to talk to the teachers, make an appointment a few days in advance, rather than attempting to chat on your child’s first day
  • The longer you stay, the more upset your child will become. As difficult as it is, walk away. Say a proper goodbye and reassure your child that you will be back
  • Be patient. Your child might love it one day and hate it the next
  • Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.  
THE DETAILS

Kaala

Dir: Pa. Ranjith

Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar  

Rating: 1.5/5 

MATCH INFO

Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 4
Osasuna: García (14')
Real Madrid: Isco (33'), Ramos (38'), Vázquez (84'), Jovic (90' 2)

While you're here
Haemoglobin disorders explained

Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.

Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.

The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.

The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.

A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

Full Party in the Park line-up

2pm – Andreah

3pm – Supernovas

4.30pm – The Boxtones

5.30pm – Lighthouse Family

7pm – Step On DJs

8pm – Richard Ashcroft

9.30pm – Chris Wright

10pm – Fatboy Slim

11pm – Hollaphonic

 

Zimbabwe v UAE, ODI series

All matches at the Harare Sports Club:

1st ODI, Wednesday, April 10

2nd ODI, Friday, April 12

3rd ODI, Sunday, April 14

4th ODI, Tuesday, April 16

UAE squad: Mohammed Naveed (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma

When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

'The Ice Road'

Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne

2/5

Super Rugby play-offs

Quarter-finals

  • Hurricanes 35, ACT 16
  • Crusaders 17, Highlanders 0
  • Lions 23, Sharks 21
  • Chiefs 17, Stormers 11

Semi-finals

Saturday, July 29

  • Crusaders v Chiefs, 12.35pm (UAE)
  • Lions v Hurricanes, 4.30pm
The specs: 2018 BMW X2 and X3

Price, as tested: Dh255,150 (X2); Dh383,250 (X3)

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged inline four-cylinder (X2); 3.0-litre twin-turbo inline six-cylinder (X3)

Power 192hp @ 5,000rpm (X2); 355hp @ 5,500rpm (X3)

Torque: 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (X2); 500Nm @ 1,520rpm (X3)

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic (X2); Eight-speed automatic (X3)

Fuel consumption, combined: 5.7L / 100km (X2); 8.3L / 100km (X3)

Past winners of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

2016 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)

2015 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes-GP)

2014 Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)

2013 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)

2012 Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)

2011 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)

2010 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)

2009 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull Racing)

 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets